The Miami Heat, who finished the 2023-24 regular season at 46-36, are in the play-in game for the second consecutive year, this time against the Philadelphia 76ers. The game will be on Wednesday, April 17, at 7:00 p.m. EST inside Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Penn.
Miami, who finished the regular season as the No. 8 seed, is hoping to avoid their inaugural play-in contest for the second straight year. The winner of Wednesday’s affair will square off against the No. 2 New York Knicks, while the loser faces the winner between Bulls-Hawks on Friday in order to play the top-seeded Celtics.
Last year, I did “best bets” for both play-in games against the Hawks and Bulls. No, I don’t think we did well–but we’re giving another crack at it! Let’s hop right into it!
(Note: all odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, April 16.)
Tyrese Maxey o29.5 points + assists (-120):
One of the biggest questions entering Wednesday night’s showdown is how the Heat will defend Tyrese Maxey, one of the league’s fastest players. I expect him to clear this number simply based on volume.
Maxey averaged 27.3 points and 8.3 assists against Miami in four games this season, including a 37-point, 11-assist outing in its most recent meeting on April 4 alongside Joel Embiid. He’s also cleared this line in 15 of the 20 games he’s played at least 38 games with Embiid.
Even though Miami’s rim prevention has been very good, its point-of-attack defense isn’t, and it’s had a difficult time staying in front of Maxey in their four meetings. In their meetings, the Heat has done a good job keeping him out of the paint, but he can leverage his quickness getting downhill with a good step back in the mid-range and from beyond the arc.
He also has very good vision and finds open passing seams when he draws extra eyes. In his four meetings against the Heat this season, Maxey’s recorded five, seven, 10 and 11 assists, respectively; the Heat own the sixth-highest opponents’ assist percentage allowed and rank in the bottom-11 in points and assists surrendered per 100 possessions to opposing guards.
Erik Spoelstra will throw the kitchen sink at him, but unless he’s missing every shot, I still expect Maxey to clear this line.
Tyler Herro o20.5 points (+100):
Wednesday could be a good buy-low opportunity for Herro, who’s scored just 20 points in three of his six games since his return from injury. But in all three of those games, he played less than 30 minutes–I expect him to see at least 30-35 minutes in Wednesday’s contest off two days rest.
Even though Miami will likely have Duncan Robinson back, it is expected to be without Terry Rozier, meaning the Heat will be without one of their best volume shooters. Herro can fill that role. He’s also superseded this line in over 70 percent of his games where he’s played at least 34 minutes and will be going up against a 76ers defense with two drop defenders in Joel Embiid and Paul Reed. Even though Philadelphia has done a good job against opposing guards this season, I still like Herro to be “ignitable” in this spot.
Favorite Four-leg SGP (+410):
- Jimmy Butler 25+ points
- Miami Heat +7.5
- Nikola Jovic 1+ 3-pointer
- Under 213.5 points
Let’s have a night!
***
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
one game anything can happen.joels gonna get his try to keep him under 35.maxeys capable of having off nights weve seen that before.the 3rd and 4th guys tobias and oubre hard to tell which version u get with them.rest of team scrubolas.think the key is containing maxey with delon.if i see ty trying to guard maxey im gonna —-spo
Hard to know what to expect out of this team, injuries dogging us right into the play-ins. We have a small shot, but not much. Then again, similar to last year. Probably be playing Chicago in a couple days. Then Boston. Not an easy road. If I was more optimistic, I’d be lying.
With Rozier out, this would an excellent time to start Wright. He can dog Maxey from one end of the floor to the other. With his 3 point shooting and outstanding assist-to-turnover ratio, he could be just what the doctor ordered. This will be a great time for Jovic to demonstrate he is ready for the “big show,”
Hopefully, with Duncan and Love hitting 3’s off the bench, the second unit will be able to keep pace with Philly’s reserves. I have a feeling one of our other reserves (Highsmith, Jaquez or Bryant) may have a chance to make a difference. Spo’s rotation should be interesting.
As long as the team plays hard and plays smart, I’ll be happy.
GO HEAT!!!
klay pitching a no hitter
Celtics, Knicks, Sixers imo are east teams that have improved this season besides being top tier already. Minus health woes to Embiid of course and Heat plays one game with them for that #7. And it’s Spo’s turn to adjust to slow down that offense and at the same time make their shots vs that improved defense. It’s gonna be a good matchup really hoping we get through bummer Terry is sidelined. I’m not good at predictions but still gonna try…Jimmy and Dunc gives Heat the win 😀😁