3 biggest questions ahead of Heat-Bulls play-in game

In a do-or-die, win or go home scenario Friday evening, the Miami Heat will play host to the Chicago Bulls with the chance of facing the Boston Celtics in the first round of the 2023-2024 postseason.

What are three questions the Heat must ask–and answer–in order to win its play-in game Friday? Let’s examine!

1.) Can the Heat contain Coby White?

I had the same question regarding Tyrese Maxey ahead of Wednesday’s play-in, and I, indeed, have the same for Coby White.

While White isn’t as skilled or quick as Maxey, he still poses a major threat. The 24-year-old guard averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists on 44.7 percent shooting, including 37.6 percent from 3-point range (7.0 3PA; 46.0% 3PAr) and 83.8 percent from the free-throw line. In his last three matchups against Miami, he’s averaged 22.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 50/41.4/71.4 shooting splits.

He’s been remarkable since the New Year and supplemented seamlessly since Zach LaVine’s foot injury, buoying into the NBA’s “most improved player” candidacy as one of Chicago’s best shot creators. Miami mucked up Philadelphia (in zone) during the first half of Wednesday’s game at the point-of-attack and I expect that trend to continue–specifically with Caleb Martin, Delon Wright and Haywood Highsmith.

But quick guards have given the Heat fits. Jimmy Butler saw a team-most 26.9 partial possessions in their most recent meeting–Miami will obviously feature a more mixed bag Friday. But will it be enough to slow down White, who tallied 42 points on 15-of-21 shooting Wednesday against Atlanta? That remains to be seen.

2.) Can Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo bounce back as shotmakers?

Without Butler, we are likely going to see a very heavy dose of the two-man combination of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo Friday, for better or worse.

Herro, who will playing in his eighth game upon return from injury versus the Bulls, converted on only nine of his 27 field goal attempts–good enough for 25 points–against Philadelphia, including five field goals in the 4th quarter after missing 19 of his first 23 shots.

With Herro and Butler’s shot diets, Adebayo was all but fazed out of the offense, scoring just 10 points on 5-of-9 shooting. Philadelphia did a good job packing the paint, but it’s worth noting that Chicago surrenders the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions (46.1).

Both players will need to step up offensively Friday without Butler, which is much easier said than done. Chicago has the fourth-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break, but Miami missing multiple of its best creators doesn’t help matters. Plenty of eyes will be on those two tonight–especially Herro, who will have all-worldly defender Alex Caruso lined up against him, most likely.

3.) Heat does have other options, but will there be any answers?

All that said, it can’t be just Herro and Adebayo who step up.

Last year, Strus rose above water alongside Butler against Chicago. Guess what? Neither player is walking through that door anytime soon. In spite of all the injuries, the Heat haven’t had many answers offensively in 2023-24 despite having options.

This is expected to be a slower-paced game, which means possessions will be at a premium. In our best bets column, I pinpointed Jaime Jaquez who could spark. Chicago allows the most catch-and-shoot 3s leaguewide, meaning plenty–Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jovic, who’s one of Miami’s best decision-makers–could, in theory, pop off.

But will they? Will any? Miami needs as much as it can get. They will be without Butler and Terry Rozier; Duncan Robinson was active, but did not play Wednesday, which suggests where he’s currently at in the postseason trust tree after dealing with a serious back injury.

That’s a big question Miami must ask if it has any chance at surviving–regardless of how much it leans into its defense.

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