Should Miami Heat target Nikola Topic if he falls to No. 15?

There’s Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, a three-time MVP who’s arguably the best player in the world. There’s Nikola Jovic, the Miami Heat’s 2022 NBA Draft selection at No. 27 overall, who has turned into a starting-caliber wing. And then there’s Nikola Topic, a 6-foot-6 guard who’s one of the best at his position heading into the 2024 NBA Draft, which begins in three weeks on June 26.

Though it was reported Wednesday by ESPN NBA Draft Analyst Jonathan Givony that Topic, one of 2024’s top prospects, has a partially torn ACL in his left knee.

NEWS: Projected top-10 NBA draft pick Nikola Topic has a partially torn ACL, his agent, Misko Raznatovic, confirmed to ESPN. Topic is at the NBA’s Draft Combine in Italy, where he went through the NBA’s medical examination.

STORY: https://t.co/j2NjnE38Kl pic.twitter.com/BqGWygrm9b

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 5, 2024

The 18-year-old is a consensus top-3 prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft, according to NBA Draft Room’s consensus big board. He’s graded ahead of potential top-5 picks Reed Sheppard, Donovan Clingan and Zaccharie Risacher, among others.

That begs the question: If he begins to fall as a result of his injury, should the Heat, who own the No. 15 pick, select him?

I already know your first thought: Why would the Heat, one of the most injured teams last year, who deployed 35 different starting lineups, target another injured player with knee concerns?

I understand.

There’s no real clarity on what his recovery timetable looks like. Topic said this week that his knee is not fully healed nor has he begun running or practicing with a basketball.

Nikola Topic at the NBA Draft Combine in Treviso, Italy, when asked about his knee injury:

“I’m not 100% healed. I haven’t started running or practicing with the basketball. I’m focusing on rehab, on my body and knee.” pic.twitter.com/xL0JsMzkPy

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 4, 2024

That could limit him from working out with teams ahead of the draft. The prognosis was revealed during the international NBA Draft Combine in Italy this week. Topic injured the knee in January before re-injuring it again in May, when his professional team, Crvena Zvezda, competed in the Adriatic League Finals (Serbia).

All that said: This is a gamble work taking, in my view, with the No. 15 pick.

Listed at 6-foot-6, he averaged 18.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.1 assists and one steal on 52.3 percent shooting, including 25.9 percent from 3-point range (4.5 3PA) and 85.5 percent from the free-throw line in 12 games with KK Mega Basket, where he was loaned for the majority of the 2023-24 season.

Topic is arguably the best pick-and-roll playmaker in this class. He’s also very good at attacking the basket, using an array of moves plus very good change-of-pace to get to his spots in the lane. His 3-point shot could use some development, though his free-throw shooting and touch around the rim suggest he could be a capable 3-point threat at the next level.

Topic is a more accomplished prospect than Jovic, who played professionally with Mega Basket for two seasons, was at this stage. Topic’s won two ABA League championships and one Serbian Cup title. He also made the All-ABA League Team and was named the 2023 FIBA U18 European Championship MVP after averaging 15.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists and two steals on 47.4 percent shooting and 57.8 percent true shooting across seven games.

He has one of the highest ceilings in the class, regardless of his injury concerns. Point. Blank. Period.

There’s no guarantee that the Topic falls outside the top-10, let alone the lottery. The San Antonio Spurs own two top-8 picks (No. 4, 8) while the Portland Trail Blazers own picks No. 7 and 14, respectively. Organizations like the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Chicago Bulls–who own the No. 6, 10 and 11 picks, respectively–could look to target Topic if he falls out of the top-5, assuming a team from outside of the lottery trades up to nab him.

According to Givony, his agent, Misko Raznatovic, stated that he does not expect the injury to have a “major impact” on Topic’s draft stock due to “his youth and initial feedback from U.S. doctors who have reviewed his MRIs.”

On one hand, an agent is supposed to protect his client and keep his stock as high as possible; no agent should publicly admit that it would affect his stock. One another, there could be some truth to that statement. We truly won’t know until June 26.

Though, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Woo, there’s a possibility that Topic’s injury could affect his placement in the “lottery hierarchy.”

“He sustained multiple knee injuries this season, returning in April before injuring himself again a few weeks later, and his health status looks likely to impact his place in the lottery hierarchy,” Woo wrote last week, pinging Topic go No. 10 to Utah. “Teams drafting in the top 15 will receive his medicals, in accordance with the NBA’s new collective bargaining rules.

“Topic’s size, basketball IQ and playmaking skills make him an intriguing long-term player and a potential value pick should he end up in the back part of the lottery.”

Let’s not forget that the Miami Heat were a bottom-third offense for the second straight year. If Erik Spoelstra gets his hands on a 6-foot-6 18-year-old–who reportedly has a 7-foot wingspan–lead guard with much upside as a primary shot creator, who knows what his ceiling could be. He already has professional experience and still has room to grow, figuratively and literally.

Should Nikola Topic be available at No. 15, I would probably partially tear my ACL trying to get the card to Adam Silver. He’s a prospect worth gambling on at No. 15, injuries aside.

What would you do if you were the Heat, should he fall outside of the lottery?

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