We are less than two months away from the start of the Miami Heat’s training camp. Before you know it, the 2024-25 season will arrive. While free agency didn’t offer much activity for the Heat, let’s do some way-too-early forecasting with the currently constructed roster.
Betting sites nationwide released their over-under win totals for each team in late July. The Heat, coming off a 46-36 season, have the same projected win total they did heading into last season: 44.5. The gambling-verse never sleeps, so that number could change depending on where the market shifts.
Nevertheless, will the Miami Heat win more than 44 games? Let’s offer a perspective for why they will … and why they will not.
Why the Heat will surpass win total:
More opportunities for the kids!
Caleb Martin found greener pastures (well, maybe not in terms of money) in Philadelphia, opening up opportunities for both Jaime Jaquez and Nikola Jovic–in addition to Haywood Highsmith and rookie Pelle Larsson.
Jaquez played a team-most 75 games last year, averaging 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and one steal last year, shooting 48.9 percent from the floor, 32.2 percent from 3-point range and 81.1 percent from the free-throw line. Jovic, who started in 38 of his 46 games, averaged 7.7 points and 4.2 rebounds on 45.2/39.9/70.2 shooting splits.
Who’s to say both won’t take sizable leaps? Both showed they could be impactful rotation pieces at different times last season. If Jaquez and Jovic can stay on the court together and build upon their synergy–in addition to sustained health from both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, among others–the Heat could very well earn a top-6 seed and, thus, surpass their projected win total.
Jimmy Butler’s in a contract year!
Miami won 46 games last year despite Butler having a down season, to his standard. Butler arguably had his worst season defensively since joining the Heat, while his rim pressure and efficiency over the course of 2023-24 were below marks we have been used to seeing with Miami, among other notable impact barometers.
Butler owns a $48.8 million cap hit for the upcoming season with a $52.4 million player option in 2025-26. If Butler has a bad season, he can just opt into the final year of his deal. Though if the soon-to-be 35-year-old, who president Pat Riley’s dubbed the biggest “needle mover,” stays healthy and propels Miami to, say, a top-6 seed, he could be in-line for a brand new multi-year payday. Nobody likes being in the play-in for one year, let alone three consecutive–perhaps a more motivated Butler gets Miami a top-6 seed.
Maybe they will have more lineup continuity?
They had 35 different starting lineups and won 46 games. 21 teams had at least one lineup that played 500 possessions together, while six had multiple. Miami? Had only one barely cracked 300 possessions (311), according to PBP Stats. That’s insane. God bless the existence of head coach Erik Spoelstra and the rest of the coaching staff. Continuity–knowing what you have day in, day out–matters. Increased production from the core, a motivated Butler and lineup continuity could do wonders.
Why the Heat won’t surpass win total:
What if Miami’s bottom-third offense stays below average?
They like to play in the mud–perhaps they dig their feet too much into the mud. Miami’s offense was a bottom-third unit for the second consecutive season and was also in the bottom-half in both effective field goal percentage and NET Rating.
Fortunately enough, they have been 22-12 in games decided by three points or less since the start of 2022-23. Though that’s not a sustainable formula for year-to-year success, especially if you continue to have a bottom-third offense.
Miami’s offense is not well-spaced nor particularly diverse in terms of a shot profile–it led the league in mid-range frequency while posting the third-worst rim frequency and sixth-worst rim efficiency. Yeesh! Not great, Bob! Perhaps you can rely on a higher frequency of 3-point attempts from both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who are both still considered non-spacers.
What good will a (slight) uptick do if the spacing’s still compromised? We’ll see!
Are they a safe health bet?
We’ve seen an influx of injuries already and they won 46 games. But that type of success isn’t always promised.
Butler’s coming off arguably the most serious knee injury of his career, compounding the lower-body injuries (ankle, foot, knee) he’s had over the last few seasons; Duncan Robinson has left facet syndrome, a serious back injury that can’t fully be cured; while a full season of Terry Rozier sounds great, he’s also coming off a very serious neck injury; Tyler Herro’s suffered multiple unfortunate, ill-timed injuries, over his first five seasons.
A lot can happen over an 82-game season, but is the Miami Heat a safe health bet in the regular season, let alone when it matters most? That remains to be seen.
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im nervous about this season b/c it just seems like it could be the end of an era but i hope im wrong and they tear some asses up
Chef curry, Darth embiid, king james,and slim reaper came in clutch today for USA today, that game was awesome, went down to the wire. Big respect to the joker.
Great game indeed. It could go either way.
With Curry, KD, Bron gone, team US will be only one of teams in next Olympics.
If team stays as is…I project plus 2-4 wins, if healthy majority of the way. Big trade depends on who…we’ll see by then.
If the team is healthy, there is no reason for them to win less than 50 games. If they are not headed on that trajectory before the trade deadline, there will definitely be some trades made. I can see Butler, Herro, Robinson and maybe Rozier on the move and a transition to a younger, more athletic, group of two-way players and draft picks.
Don’t get why y’all are so optimistic round here for some shit we’ve already seen. Boston Ny philly Milwaukee that leaves the 5th seed up for grabs. Are we 100% certain Mia is better than the cavs? Pacers? Magic?
They won 46 games last year with 38 different starting line-ups and with half a dozen players who missed 20+ – 40+ games. Jaquez and Jovic are a year older and they now have Ware, Larsen and others. Why are you so pessimistic?
Coz like the other guy they’re both looking for a perfect team. Unless Heat get A-lister player/s, they’ll be negative nellies all the time.
Must have something to do with that ‘4 life’ thing! 😆😆
Related? Hmm?
Winning around 45 games seems solid result for this team. We all know, this is not a champion level team, but being competitive in second round would be a successful season.
So you think a healthy Heat team this year will do worse than last year’s injured team? You have no faith in the emergence of Kel’el Ware, the continued improvement of Jovic and Jaquez, the motivation to make up for last year by Butler, Herro and Rozier or the benefits of having the familiarity and cohesion of a veteran team? You must have been bitten by the “Debbie Downer” bug which is going around.
Hey, where you get my photo? 🙂
East is stronger this year.. I expect Boston at 55 wins, two team close to 50 wins and a big bunch of teams around 45-47 wins. 45 wins this year could count for 50 last year.