Miami Heat: A breakdown of 2024-25 schedule from a rest advantage perspective - Hot Hot Hoops

Coming off back-to-back play-in berths, the Miami Heat are looking forward to a fresh start in 2024-25.

Over the last two seasons, they have finished with 44 and 46 wins, respectively. Though they ended dissimilar to one another, as last year’s team got bounced in the first round by the reigning champion Boston Celtics, while the 2022-23 squad made it to the NBA Finals–a historically great run as the No. 8 seed–before losing to Denver.

The 2024-25 regular season schedule was released last week. Miami’s 82-game season begins on Oct. 23 against the Orlando Magic for the fifth time in nine years. While every team plays every team at least twice, one part of analyzing each team’s schedule is based on rest advantage–which could play a part in how a team plays on a game-by-game basis.

While we dove into which games you should look forward to here, let’s analyze Miami’s schedule from a true rest advantage standpoint, shall we?

What’s defined as a “true” rest advantage?

According to Positive Residual, a team defined with a true rest advantage (REST+) is a “game in which one team is rested and the other is unrested,” since it’s not always clear whether or not just more days of days results in a clear advantage.

How many games do the Heat have a true rest advantage?

According to Positive Residual, the Miami Heat have only eight games with a true rest advantage this season, one fewer than it did last year and one more than it did in 2022-23.

Their eight games with a true rest advantage are tied with the Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets for the fifth-fewest in the sport, with the only teams below them being the Dallas Mavericks (7), Cleveland Cavaliers (7), Phoenix Suns (6) and New Orleans Pelicans (4). Brooklyn Nets lead the NBA with games in true rest advantage with 15, with 14 other teams having at least 11 REST+ games.

The Heat went 4-5 in games with a true rest advantage last year. Here’s how they have fared in such games in each of the last five seasons:

2023-24: 4-5 (+3.0 average point differential)
2022-23: 5-2 (+1.6 diff.)
2021-22: 6-6 (+0.4 diff.)
2020-21: 8-5 (+1.4 diff.)
2019-20: 6-0 (+14.8 diff.)

Alas, last year was the only Heat season over that span with a sub-.500 record, though each of their four wins came by double digits and a pair by at least 26 points. They also played seven of their nine games on the road, going 4-3 in those games.

Over the last five seasons, they’ve gone 29-18 (.617); in all games with any sort of rest advantage over that span, they’re 66-33, tied for the fourth-best record in the sport over that span. Here’s the leaderboard:

Boston Celtics: 73-19 (.794)
Milwaukee Bucks: 72-32 (.692)
Denver Nuggets: 68-31 (.687)
Phoenix Suns: 76-38 (.667)
Miami Heat: 66-33 (.667)
Philadelphia 76ers: 58-32 (.664)
Utah Jazz: 55-33 (.625)
Brooklyn Nets: 59-38 (.608)
Los Angeles Clippers: 57-37 (.606)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 52-34 (.605)

Which games do the Heat have a true rest advantage?

Miami just has two REST+ contests before the New Year: On Oct. 26 against the Charlotte Hornets and Dec. 20 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Of their eight games with a true rest advantage, two will be at home. According to PR, here’s their REST+ slate:

Oct. 26: @ Hornets
Dec. 20: vs. Thunder
Jan. 6: @ Kings
Jan. 23: @ Bucks
Feb. 1: @ Spurs
March 5: @ Cavaliers
March 12: vs. Clippers
April 9: @ Bulls

The Heat was a combined 15-9 (.625) against those times last year.

What is the Heat’s NET true rest advantage?

The Heat play nine games this year with a rest disadvantage, meaning they have a minus-1 NET Rest, tied with the Thunder, Celtics and Mavericks. Only 11 teams have a positive NET Rest, including the Warriors and Bulls have a plus-4 NET apiece. The Suns have a minus-4 NET Rest, the worst in the NBA, with Utah being the only team with a minus-3 NET.

According to PR, Miami’s had a negative NET Rest in each of the last two seasons after a positive NET Rest in the two seasons prior. Here’s how that’s fared in each of the last five years:

2024-25: -1
2023-24: -2
2022-23: -3
2021-22: 3
2020-21: 5
2019-20: -3

How have they done recently with a true rest disadvantage?

The Heat had tied for the second-most REST- games a year ago with 11, going 5-6 with an average point differential of minus-4.8 points per game. It marked the most REST- games they’ve played in a single season since 2015-16, when they played 16, which was second to only Golden State (17) that season.

Here’s how they’ve done in each of the last five seasons:

2023-24: 5-6 (-4.8 diff.)
2022-23: 4-6 (-3.8 diff.)
2021-22: 3-6 (-2.9 diff.)
2020-21: 4-4 (0.4 diff)
2019-20: 4-5 (-4.7 diff.)

Over that span, that equates to a 21-27 record (.438). Miami’s been near-par for the course when it’s had any sort of rest disadvantage over the last five years, going 40-42 (.488), the ninth-best record in the NBA.

Only the Bucks, Suns, Nuggets, Celtics, Clippers, 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers have a .500 or better record in the NBA in such games, with Milwaukee going a staggering 66-28 (.702) with a rest disadvantage over that span.

Which games do the Heat have a true disadvantage in 2024-25?

Of the Heat’s nine REST- games this season, six come over their first 35 games. Their first one is on Nov. 18 against the Philadelphia 76ers, which is one game you should mark on your calendar. Here’s their nine-game REST- slate:

Nov. 18: vs. 76ers
Nov. 27: @ Hornets
Dec. 21: @ Magic
Dec. 29: @ Rockets
Jan. 2: vs. Pacers
Jan. 7: @ Warriors
March 3: vs. Wizards
March 8: vs. Bulls
April 3: vs. Grizzlies

What does all this mean?

While every team plays each other at least twice, depending on which division or conference you play in, your schedule could shake out a certain way relative to the rest of the NBA.

There’s not a sizable gap between the top and the bottom, but the Heat do rank in the bottom-half in these categories: Three games played in four nights (11), back-to-backs on the road (9), games with two days rest (9) and games with three-plus days rest (4).

According to Positive Residual, the Heat will have the 18th-hardest schedule leaguewide. There’s always more to contextualize, but all in all, it could be a lot worse. If you were to ask them, they’d want to play in the mud. They do face a fair amount of obstacles at the start of the 2024-25 season, which could be a very good early-season test leading up to the postseason. Though you have to get there, first.

The Heat’s projected win total still sits at 44.5. Who knows, perhaps Jimmy Butler stays healthy and is an animal, Bam Adebayo has an All-NBA caliber season after winning his second Gold, Terry Rozier sparks in his first full season with the organization, Duncan Robinson is lights out from deep, Tyler Herro stays healthy and takes a jump, Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaqueez both shine in expanded roles, etc.

However, the inverse could very well happen, too. A lot can happen in an 82-game season, so however many REST+ or REST- games they win may not matter, though it’s definitely something that should always be taken into consideration when forecasting how one’s season goes.