As the 2024-25 NBA season approaches–with training camp beginning in just over a month–ESPN recently released their win-loss predictions for all 30 NBA teams last week.
Coming off back-to-back play-in performances, ESPN projects the Miami Heat will end up there for a third straight year, finishing 45-37. Other teams they have in the play-in are the Indiana Pacers (7th seed, 46-36), Atlanta Hawks (9th, 31-51) and Chicago Bulls (10th, 30-52).
“The Pacers finished sixth in the standings last season with a 47-35 record but made a surprising run to the conference finals and are expected to remain in playoff contention,” the article read. “The Heat, eliminated by the Celtics in the first round last season after reaching the NBA Finals the year prior, are projected to finish eighth in the standings — a spot familiar to Jimmy Butler & Co. after finishing there two years straight.
“The Hawks had a busy summer — trading away shooting guard Dejounte Murray and drafting Zaccharie Risacher at No. 1 — but are looking at a fourth straight appearance in the play-in group, according to our panel. The Bulls, without DeMar DeRozan, face a similar situation, as they hope to avoid a third consecutive year in the play-in bracket.”
All three of those aforementioned teams have played in the play-in game at least once since the current format was introduced in 2020-21. In fact, the Hawks have been in the play-in three straight seasons (not including this projection) while Chicago has been it two straight, missing the playoffs both times.
Miami’s 45 wins would put them over its projected 44.5-win total, which is what it opened up for sportsbooks nationwide. I have done previous analysis on reasons why–and why not–they could exceed that mark (which I think it will), which you can check out here.
It’s bold of ESPN to have a *checks notes* 14 (FOURTEEN!) win gap between Miami and Atlanta. There hasn’t been that large of a win difference between the No. 8 and 9 seeds, in either conference, since there was a 14-win gap between the Houston Rockets (41-41) and Sacramento Kings (27-55) in the 1997-98 season.
They don’t have a single non-playoff team in the East finishing with more than 26 wins; ESPN has the Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards going a combined 106-304 (.259); for perspective, that equates to a 21-61 record over an 82-game sample.
Similar to popular belief, ESPN has the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics (61-21) finishing atop the East for the second consecutive year.
Boston, who brought back their entire rotation from a year ago, was, overwhelmingly, the most dominant team last season. It finished 64-18 with the league’s best adjusted NET Rating–by four points per 100 possessions, as big of a gap as it was from No. 2 to 9–with the best offense (122.0) and second-best defense (111.2), according to Dunks And Threes.
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That is OK too. Inch by inch, we shall get back there.
Yes! Kel’el Ware! He’s the frontcourt player Miami has been missing these past 5 seasons.
GO HEAT!!!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/kel-el-ware-s-fit-alongside-bam-adebayo-brings-optimism-to-the-miami-heat/ar-AA1pOAl1?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=56a896e02a694c67a5ea4c0267399c45&ei=77
If Jimmy comes into camp as a disruptive force because he didn’t get his max extension, Riley should ask him for the top 5 teams he would prefer to be traded to and trade him before the start of training camp to the team making the highest offer . Preferably, it will be a team in Western Conference with young players with potential and first round draft picks to trade.
NBA TEAMS WITH MOST DRAFT PICKS 2025-2031
Oklahoma City Thunder: 35 draft picks (15 first round)
San Antonio Spurs: 34 draft picks (14 first round)
Washington Wizards: 25 draft picks (10 first round)
Orlando Magic: 21 draft picks (9 first round)
Indiana Pacers: 19 draft picks (6 first round)
Brooklyn Nets: 19 draft picks (9 first round)
Utah Jazz: 18 draft picks (15 first round)
New York Knicks: 17 draft picks (10 first round)
Charlotte Hornets: 17 draft picks (8 first round)
Portland Trail Blazers 16 draft picks (10 first round)
Philadelphia 76ers 15 draft picks (8 first round)
Houston Rockets 15 draft picks (10 first round)
Memphis Grizzlies: 15 draft picks (9 first round)
Note: Miami has 7 draft picks (5 first round) in the next 7 seasons (2025-2031). Talk about mortgaging the future?
If its gonna happen I wish Jimmy goes to a west team. In a perfect world Jimmy goes nuclear this season and Heat gets a run at the finals again. Happy thoughts lol
Jimmy goes nuclear, Ware becomes Rookie of the Year, PF Bam makes All-Star, All-Defense and All-NBA teams, Jaquez blossoms into “Jimmy 2.0”, Jovic makes a leap to top notch point forward, Herro finally stays healthy and hits his stride, Rozier revives the “Scary Terry” mode, Duncan gets his 40-42% 3-point shooting touch back, Highsmith becomes an aggressive scorer, Josh Richardson, Kevin Love, Alex Burkes and Thomas Bryant all return at 100% and play up to their potentials and Larsson, Johnson, Christopher, Stevens, Smith and Pullin all prove to be quickly improving developmental projects. Miami makes a mid-season trade that makes the team younger, stronger and more athletic.
That isn’t asking too much, is it?
Nah, reasonable, modest, low expectations.
“Optimism doesn’t mean that you are blind to the reality of the situation. It means that you remain motivated to seek a solution to whatever problems arise.”
-The Dalai Lama
Another glass half full guy.
If Jimmy is looking for a max contract extension next year, Heat should trade him to a team that can give it to him. Is max money more important to him than playing with Bam and the boys, living in Miami or trying to win a championship? If it is, the sooner Miami trades him, the better.
Note: NY personal income tax rate is 10.9% vs Florida’s 0.0%.
https://athlonsports.com/nba/inside-the-heat/miami-heat-fans-unhappy-latest-jimmy-butler-news
Jimmy really spoiled his reputation last season. Before that, Jimmy as a Heat lifer was more or less a fact.
Jimmy wasn’t very good last season, but he still produced at solid level, and the injury prevent him from playing in PO, which, I believe, most of us understand, that is not really his fault.
So why such change of opinion about Butler among fans?
-his age?
-max extension request?
-his behaviour?
-his aviability?
-his attitude?
I think many would say max. extension request is the reason to trade him. For me, is his attitude or better said, he spend too much time for other things, like his coffe business, commercials, media stuff, to be entirely focused o Basketball.
That’s why we should trade him. After a good halfseason. I think his value would be higher then than today.
father time
It’s just he’s overstayed his welcome and has happened amongst players and teams since the beginning of time: more recently kd warriors? Charles Barkley Houston, kyrie nets/boston harden nets/76ers hell Lebron Mia. Etc etc and nothing is wrong with that, also better to lose him now than for nothing and or have an aging broke down player your not gonna get shit for later on down the road. Also and it’s just my opinion but maybe that’s why we can’t get free agents here, Jimmy and his personality/persona that is Jimmy butler
Well, espn project lakeshow missing the playoffs. There’s that lol
kelel ware could be a good addition but i just dont think they are much better than last year and jimmy is on the decline. they are a player short of really moving up
All of you who agree with ESPN that Miami will have a worse record than last year must also be projecting the team will lose as many/more games to injuries. I beg to differ with you on that one, but what do I know?
In my opinion, with a healthy team, plus a full season from Rozier (instead of Lowry) the continued development of Jaquez, Jovic and Highsmith, plus the addition of Ware, there is no way in hell this team is worse than last year’s.
ty jimmy always hurt,every year ty has played hes missed significant time.jimmys good for 60 games.guarantee heat tried to trade ty but no takers,duncs never hurt but cant play d no takers,ty and duncs salary holding this team back.jim bam terry jaime ware could be a deadly five at end of year
Then Butler and Duncan are gone before the deadline or at the end of the season. Herro will have a taker somewhere. Again, if Miami stays relatively healthy and players perform up to their potentials, they will do fine. If not, those three and others will be gone by next summer. I see it as a win/win situation.
What are the chances ty is avail at playoff time 50%.What % of jimmy ss is left.70%.2 key factors to monitor.
I gotta admit, I’m not sure the Heat will be better this year. I’m not saying they will be worse, they might be healthy and motivated and finish as a top-5 seed in the East. They were only a few wins away from doing it last season.
But they had a chance to do it last season, and were relatively healthy at the end of the year, and lost a couple important games to Indiana and Philly and one other team I don’t remember, and ended up in the play-in. Then they had more injuries in the play-in, and the lack of rest and short roster led to more injuries in the playoffs.
So I’m not using injuries as an excuse. And i certainly didn’t expect the Heat to run it back with the same squad this season. So while I don’t think the Heat will be BAD next season, I’m certainly not feeling comfortable predicting that they will be good, either. I am happy to wait and see what November brings.
I forgot how cooked Lowry looked last year
look who is there with Steph.
https://x.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1829194340411077112/photo/1
The loss of terry was a killer.He was playing as a top 5 pt g when he went down.The celtics were the only team in the east that was healthy.Not sure why every fkn year we get crippled with injuries and when we dont we can compete with anyone.I expect the same to hold true this year.Just stay fairly healthy maybe a ty or dunc injury only (lol) and i like our chances with anyone.Im hoping to see wares pt increase as year goes on.Again bam not big enough to play center.Why they havent moved him to the 4 is a head scratcher(spo?).If healthy heat win 50
Well, Heat finished as 8th last year and a year before, with no significant improvement, so its a safe bet to put them at 8th again. No objections here.
But I expect them higher, at 4-6 position.
Sounds like ESPN is predicting that that next season is more or less exactly like last season. A very safe prediction. But that almost never happens.
Nobody should be mad or upset at wherever the media outlets rank the heat. They’ve only seen what most with eyes have also seen. Another offseason where they didn’t upgrade the roster, “6th year of running it back” another year of the competition around them getting better, as well as ascending younger teams getting better as well.
If absolutely everything falls into place – relatively healthy players, Butler playing like he means it, improvement by Jaquez and Jovic, the size and athleticism of Ware making a difference, etc – anything is possible. If not, sure, they may be a play-in team. I don’t think they will miss the playoffs.
Fun fact, and I’m not reading more into it, just sayin’ – in the last 5 years, the Heat lost to the eventual NBA champions 4 times, and to the NBA runner up once.
Manila, sunman and others are upset that Mia is ranked as a playin team when they did nothing in free agency for the 3rd time in a row while the previous 2 years having been a playin team. As much as I hate espn they are spot on…..in a league where you need talent to win Mia is lacking. While y’all are mad at espn the Celtics added Lonnie Walker lmao Mia as currently constructed are the 6th best team in the east dgaf if I’m being as optimistic as others here but definitely a playin team
“Mia as currently constructed are the 6th best team in the east dgaf if I’m being as optimistic as others here but definitely a playin team”
FYI, a 6th place team is a guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Play-in teams are the 7th, 8th, 9th & 10th place teams. You may want to jot that down for future reference.
P.S. Are you related to Heat4life?
6th best team if we’re being optimistic
Nah. Not upset. Just don’t care what everyone’s predicting. Go Heat!
Time will tell, but I agree with your, and espn’s assessment. But, what do they know?
a month (?) before training…my projection is 80-2. lets see by october hehehe
Hater. I’m predicting 82-0
😀😂
SunMan is predicting that ESPN can kiss his a** and go f*** themselves.
This team was 46-36 last year with a bunch of crippled dudes. If they stay healthy, no way in hell they should win less than 50. With a little luck and a key trade (or two) who knows how far they can go.
There are two kinds of people in the world…optimists and negative, depressing, losing mofos. No time for negativity or losing. FTS! You are either all in or all out! I’m all in! The glass is definitely half full!
GO HEAT!!!
they’re just basing it on previous stats and strength of east conf. of course we all know the Heat can do the improbable. things that does not appear on paper. so simply put…we don’t care what others think lol
Exactly. Play-in team my a**. They had 38 different line-ups and went 46-36 with the most injured playoff team in the NBA. Still finished just 4 games out of 2nd place. Too many pessimists around here. Time to snap tf out of it. Life is too short to wallow!