Tell me if you have heard this phrase, or something of this ilk: The Miami Heat like to play in the mud!
While that may be the case defensively–no team loves to muck a team more up offensively than Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat … and he’s very good at it, too–their offense the last two seasons has been the embodiment of dragging their body through the waist-high, heavy mud that would make one gasp for air after just a few steps. They’ve ranked in the bottom-third in offensive efficiency in each of the last two years–No. 25 and 21, respectively–and Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson lamented on Media Day that everyone is tired of it.
Here’s what he told reporters, per All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg:
Duncan Robinson: “Everybody is tired of being in the bottom third in offense.”
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) September 30, 2024
A Key To Change is Adjusting Shot Diet
The offense has been an issue, both with their process, and ultimately their results–which has been because of bad process more often than not.
Miami has one of the best defensive players in the entire league in Bam Adebayo, plus a generational off-ball defender in Jimmy Butler, who incessantly hunts the passing lanes and ambushes opposing ballhandlers off-ball when their back is turned. It’s ranked in the top-10 in opposing team’s turnover rate each of the last two seasons and was top-12 in steals per 100 possessions (live-ball TOs), yet it constantly conjured together unwatchable possessions in transition that lacked any reasonable process or positive results.
The Heat has almost as bad in the halfcourt, too, where they spend most of their time relative to the rest of the league. Their absence of spacing and insufficient shot diet churned out poor offensive outcomes. They led the NBA in mid-range frequency last year with the third-worst rim frequency and 15th-highest 3-point frequency, per Cleaning The Glass; in 2022-23, they posted the third-worst rim frequency, 7th-highest mid-range frequency and 9th-highest 3-point frequency. That’s slightly more palatable, but not good enough considering they were the fourth-worst 3-point shooting team with the fifth-worst effective field goal percentage.
Better yet, according to CTG, their location eFG%–which measures what their eFG% would have looked like if they shot league average from each area with their current shot diet–they ranked No. 28 and 30 the last two years, respectively. You can be on fire from deep and at the rim, but if you don’t take enough of your attempts there relative to the rest of the NBA, it’s not going to matter.
Duncan Robinson is one of the few players on the team who provides a noticeable impact with his spacing and gravity. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo showed flashes of expanding their range last year, but it wasn’t enough to be respected as spacers; Nikola Jovic, who spent the latter half in the starting lineup, consistently showed he could space on decent volume while Jaime Jaquez Jr. dedicated his offseason to improving as a 3-point threat.
What will need to happen is for Tyler Herro to play more off-ball–which he said he’s willing to do, even though it will need to come into practice–with Terry Rozier doing the same in certain contexts. There will need to be a collective adjustment to the team’s spacing, which could open up the floor for additional paint touches, rim attempts and more spot-up 3-point looks.
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