The Miami Heat have been a play-in team in each of the last two seasons. A big portion of that has been due to its bottom-third offense, which has featured an inefficient shot diet, an absence of spacing and poor process in both the halfcourt and transition.
Over the last two seasons, they were No. 25 and 21 in offensive rating, respectively, and were bottom-third in effective field goal percentage. Of course, injuries ravaged the team last year, and the lack of consistent role allocation despite possessing the same core complicates the team’s offensive structure.
Even though slight personnel changes were made–adding Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens in the draft, signing veteran guard Alec Burks and losing Caleb Martin plus Delon Wright–their best players have largely operated in the same areas. How did Erik Spoelstra go about solving the math problem?
Heat Are Making Concerted Efforts To Change Shot Diet In Training Camp Scrimmages
According to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, during training camp scrimmages, they are attempting to optimize the scoring system to prioritize more efficient shots–specifically around the rim, where they finished No. 28 in shot frequency a season ago.
“One way that the Heat’s coaching staff has emphasized the need for more shots around the basket is by adjusting the scoring format in scrimmages during training camp this week: layups and dunks are worth three points, three-pointers are worth three points and midrange shots count for just one point,” Chiang wrote.
Miami led the NBA in mid-range frequency last season, and according to Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric–which measures how their eFG% would have looked like if they shot league average relative to their current shot diet–they were dead last.
“We need to improve, we need to innovate, we need to do some things subtly better,” Spoelstra said during Media Day. “You can’t revamp and start a whole new offense, that gets people out of rhythm. There has to be some sophistication, there has to be some added new innovation to bring out the best in everybody and everybody has to have those kinds of collaborative intentions.”
A total revamp wouldn’t make sense, to Spoelstra’s point.
Though it will be curious to see how Spoelstra’s new offense will be structured. It’s difficult to go back to the DHO formula that excelled in Butler’s first year–the league figured that out, the personnel is different while both Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson have evolved as players.
They also can’t result in settling for contested 2s and isolated mid-range jumpers as their primary shot diet. There needs to be a free-flowing balance where it can be both efficient in shot diet and frequency.
The math problem that Spoelstra’s attempting to solve is one that only he can crack. Given the roster, it’s going to be an uphill climb–one that can reap benefits. What we know right now is everyone is tired of what’s bled on the court the last two seasons, and it appears they are trying to alter it heading into the 2024-25 season.
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It’s unfixable without changing some personnel. This is just some preseason hype to get us hopeful, but it won’t amount to much. Coach needs more talent, not a formula that extracts more out of players with less talent. It will all become more apparent in about a month.