The Miami Heat have been a play-in team in each of the last two seasons. A big portion of that has been due to its bottom-third offense, which has featured an inefficient shot diet, an absence of spacing and poor process in both the halfcourt and transition.
Over the last two seasons, they were No. 25 and 21 in offensive rating, respectively, and were bottom-third in effective field goal percentage. Of course, injuries ravaged the team last year, and the lack of consistent role allocation despite possessing the same core complicates the team’s offensive structure.
Even though slight personnel changes were made–adding Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens in the draft, signing veteran guard Alec Burks and losing Caleb Martin plus Delon Wright–their best players have largely operated in the same areas. How did Erik Spoelstra go about solving the math problem?
Heat Are Making Concerted Efforts To Change Shot Diet In Training Camp Scrimmages
According to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald, during training camp scrimmages, they are attempting to optimize the scoring system to prioritize more efficient shots–specifically around the rim, where they finished No. 28 in shot frequency a season ago.
“One way that the Heat’s coaching staff has emphasized the need for more shots around the basket is by adjusting the scoring format in scrimmages during training camp this week: layups and dunks are worth three points, three-pointers are worth three points and midrange shots count for just one point,” Chiang wrote.
Miami led the NBA in mid-range frequency last season, and according to Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric–which measures how their eFG% would have looked like if they shot league average relative to their current shot diet–they were dead last.
“We need to improve, we need to innovate, we need to do some things subtly better,” Spoelstra said during Media Day. “You can’t revamp and start a whole new offense, that gets people out of rhythm. There has to be some sophistication, there has to be some added new innovation to bring out the best in everybody and everybody has to have those kinds of collaborative intentions.”
A total revamp wouldn’t make sense, to Spoelstra’s point.
Though it will be curious to see how Spoelstra’s new offense will be structured. It’s difficult to go back to the DHO formula that excelled in Butler’s first year–the league figured that out, the personnel is different while both Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson have evolved as players.
They also can’t result in settling for contested 2s and isolated mid-range jumpers as their primary shot diet. There needs to be a free-flowing balance where it can be both efficient in shot diet and frequency.
The math problem that Spoelstra’s attempting to solve is one that only he can crack. Given the roster, it’s going to be an uphill climb–one that can reap benefits. What we know right now is everyone is tired of what’s bled on the court the last two seasons, and it appears they are trying to alter it heading into the 2024-25 season.
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I say why not. It can only help with the spacing, especially as Ware gets more play.
As one can tell by the tenor of my recent comments, I am not very optimistic about this years version of the Heat. We are still saddled with some untradeable players, and we kept Jimmy in the unrealistic hope that he can somehow earn a new contract. And then there is the unlikely idea that Jovic will emerge into a solid player. All seem delusional, especially when one takes a look at what Boston, Philly and New York are bringing this year.
I believe this is all Riley hubris, not wanting to start over. And it’s only making our coming rebuild longer and more painful.
Got to be honest with you all, but take no joy in it, I assure you.
Nobody knows about Jimmy, but Jovic improved a lot last year. If he can make another similar step this year, then we have a really good player at only 22.
I m expecting even more from JJJ, who should become one of young stars in this league, one of top 10 players bellow 25 years.
I am hoping that Jovic continues to improve his game. He already has some intriguing attributes – size, passing, shooting. What I do know for sure is that you, I, and everyone else here, were not the best, most productive versions of ourselves 4 months past our 21st birthday. In life and sports, it often takes increased experience and education to reach one’s fullest potential. I’m hoping that holds true for Jovic.
I gotta say that I don’t necessarily agree with the starting backcourt that Spo is reportedly looking to put out there for the start of the season, With the 2 Ts Terry and Tyler.
I don’t think that backcourt is going to cut it defensively and we need to hit the ground running from the very beginning of the season.
A few bad games to start the season could put us behind the 8-ball and have us playing catchup the rest of the season in a very strong conference.
I know everyone is stressing offense but we need a starting backcourt that’s good on both ends of the court not just good on one end.
I mean didn’t we watch this movie last season when Lowry and Tyler were sharing the backcourt?
That movie got a score of 10 rotten tomatoes by Heat fans for it’s horrible ending.
The movie started out as a western called the magnificent 5 but quickly turned into a horror movie when all 5 got slaughtered in the end because 2 of the 5 weren’t strong enough to defend their side of the fort from the bad guys.
So why the FK are we entertaining a sequel?
Do we seriously expect a different ending to the same movie?
I think we need to see another script where 3 members of the 5 are strong enough to defend the entire squad while still having enough bullets in their guns to take down the enemy.
IMO we should bring Tyler off the bench and insert Highsmith into the starting lineup in his place.
That way we have a great point of attack defender who’s also quickly
becoming a knock down 3 point shooter to start games which in turn severely lessens the chance that an opposing guard will quickly get into a rhythm and proceed to shred us like mozzarella on a pizza.
The team was short on everything last season.. since the team is the same last year, the only chance for improvements comes from internal growth of young players.
Terry is what he is, but Tyler added some weight this offseason, which might mean a chance to be a better defender. I dont want to see Heat scoring bellow 100 each second game, so I would try with this duo as starters and see, what this brings.
Herro was always better as a bench player, but its time, to prove, that he is a good team starter level player, or Heat should trade him. The time is now for him.
You haven’t seen Rozier at his best and I am excited about the development of Jaquez, Jovic, Highsmith and the introduction of Ware, Pelle and maybe others into the group. As for Herro, it’s about time for him to advance to the next level of development. He’s been stuck on Year 2 for the past 4 years.
I didn’t criticize Rosier. He is an established player, we all know, what he can bring, 20 ppg and at least an average defense. Tyler is the one he has a big hole in his game.
Tyler has had 5 years to prove that he’s at least an average defender and dude has never done that.
And as far as I’m concerned the team is best served with him coming off the bench.
I’m going into the season with the belief that he’s a poor defender and he’s going to remain a poor defender until I see otherwise.
Sorry to be so blunt but I was really disappointed in the way he played last season.
Especially since I’ve always been one of the few fans who has defended Tyler on these type of boards for years.
Makes sense. But heat needs his production in starting lineup. If he cant improve in defence this year, then Heat should trade him.
FYI, Scary Terry came into the league as a good defender. He had defensive ratings of 107.0, 108.3, 103.7 and 108.1 his first four years in the league with Boston. Only after being traded to Charlotte, where defense is not emphasized and offense is, did his defensive rating drop significantly. The same thing happened to Kuzma’s defense when he was traded from Los Angeles to Washington.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/terry-rozier-defensive-rating-by-year
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/kyle-kuzma-defensive-rating-by-season
Rozier can play very scrappy defense. Herro has the athleticism to be a good defender. Up to now, he just hasn’t had the desire. If both emphasize their defense this year, Miami’s overall defense can improve. If either or both of them don’t play better defense, they may find themselves coming off the bench.
One other thing, you are quick to write off a line-up that played very few minutes together last year. I want to see them come out of preseason healthy and in sync. Until we see that, in combination with the returning veterans and the young developing players, we won’t know what we have. This is the time to just chill TF out!
GO HEAT!!!
LOL You can sit there with a straight face and tell me that you believe a backcourt of Rozier and Herro could slow down the likes of Maxey, Brunson, Mitchel, Haliburton, LaMelo, Lillard, Young, Ant, Shai, Kyrie, Steph, Booker, Fox, Morant etc?
Gimme a hit of that sht you’re smoking bro.
Don’t hog it all for yourself.
Dude did you actually watch Tyler defend last season?
He had a defensive rating of 114, below the likes of Patty mills and Kevin Love.
And that is after playing most of the season in the same lineup with 2 of the best defenders in the nba.
This is Tyler’s 6th year and even though he has put on a few lbs and I respect his ability to score I’m at the point where I’m starting out the season with zero confidence in his ability to defend at even an average level.
He would have to defend at least at an average level for half a season for him to restore any faith in me at that end of the floor.
I’m not as worried about Terry as I am about Tyler, that’s why I would rather Tyler be the one coming off the bench.
I at least have enough confidence in Terry to move his feet quick enough to stay in front of defenders and pester them.
However, with that said, the dude is still 6-1 190 lbs.
Which means he can easily be posted up or just shot over by bigger stronger guards in the nba, most of which ARE bigger and stronger than him.
I could be wrong, I hope I’m wrong cause I’ve been a diehard Heat fan since they drafted the franchise goat in 2003.
But I’m a defense first guy and I believe that the Heat should always stick to their main identity of being a tough defensive team first and not worry about what other teams are doing.
That’s what has worked for us in the past and I believe that’s what will continue to work for us in the future.
IMO I think people are overreacting to the last couple of regular seasons in which I believe that injuries and an unengaged Jimmy were the principle reasons for the team’s below average regular season records.
Less injuries, an engaged Jimmy and I 100 percent believe that we would’ve been a top 4-5 seed the last 2 seasons.
No doubt Jimmy’s going to be engaged this season, his future is on the line and whether we have less injuries this season remains to be seen but I will always stick to my belief in a strong defense first system and as much as I like and respect those guys I just don’t believe a Tyler, Terry starting back court is going to get the job done on that end for most of 82 games.
And it if there is a slow start to the season due to lack of ball containment.
Then I’m going to fking lose it.
How ever I’d be happy as fk if they were to go on and prove me wrong.
It’s unfixable without changing some personnel. This is just some preseason hype to get us hopeful, but it won’t amount to much. Coach needs more talent, not a formula that extracts more out of players with less talent. It will all become more apparent in about a month.
“not a formula that extracts more out of players with less talent.”
In another word, coaching.