Should Nikola Jovic be a lock to begin season as starter?

Nikola Jovic Heat — Heat wing Nikola Jovic started 41 of the team’s final 44 games last season. (Kevin C. Cox/GettyImages)

Earlier this season, it was reported that the Miami Heat had only two “definite” starters entering training. Though head coach Erik Spoelstra tipped his hand during media day, stating he wanted to see how guards Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro–plus Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo would play together in a larger sample heading into the season.

Envisioning what the starting lineup would look like–if healthy, when they’re never healthy–with this core together is a contentious topic. After all, the team had 35 starting lineups last season, so this discussion may be moot entirely.

That said, during Sunday’s preseason game against New Orleans, we saw a glimpse of what the starting lineup could look like once Oct. 23 arrives: Rozier, Herro, Butler, Nikola Jovic and Adebayo.

Together, the quartet finished a plus-3 in roughly 13 minutes, converting on 10 of their 25 shot attempts, including 4-of-15 (26.7 percent) from 3-point range. The results weren’t great. However, they did generate plenty of open looks in both the half-court and transition, while forcing New Orleans into six turnovers (five live-ball).

Spoelstra was encouraged by how the grouping played after the game, when speaking with reporters.

“I thought it was really encouraging,” Spoelstra said Sunday, according to Zachary Weinberger of ClutchPoints. “You know, that’s the way they looked in training camp while we’re in Bahamas, the group has gone at it with the right approach, the right mindset, just to roll up the sleeves and get to work on our system. Work on getting comfortable with each other, work on working to each other’s strengths, and finding different ways to do that. The defense was very active. Very active and disruptive and then offensively just playing very fluid, flowing into actions without causes. I liked what I saw and I know the guys probably felt comfortable as well and that’s the way they looked in the game.”

Jovic also offered his perspective, saying it felt “great,” even though the results weren’t completely perfect for the full sample.

That begs the question: Should Jovic, who started 41 of the team’s final 44 games last season, be book-ended as the team’s final starter?

Should Nikola Jovic begin 2024-25 season as team’s starter?

Testing different lineup combinations–to see how different players mesh–is one of the few beauties of the preseason, even though it’s difficult to make firm conclusions one way or another. This was Jovic’s first experience–literally–with this group in live action. It wasn’t perfect, but you could also see their potential with more reps together (whether Jovic starts or not).

The team looked faster in transition–and the team’s sheer process was better with Jovic on the floor. Plus, his size and connective passing–in addition to his shot-making (which was off Sunday) and ability to attack closeouts–add another layer for defenses to account for outside of Rozier-Herro-Butler-Adebayo.

You could also make cogent arguments for Haywood Highsmith, the team’s top 3-and-D wing, and Duncan Robinson, one of the best sharpshooters in the sport (when healthy). We’ve also seen both Robinson and Highsmith with those four in games before.

Robinson’s sample (four minutes, nine possessions) is much smaller than Highsmith’s (59 MIN, 119 POSS), so there may not be much to take away any way you slice the pie. Highsmith is a better defender than Jovic, even though the latter has made massive improvements defensively, specifically on-ball. But the fit with Highsmith didn’t mesh as well, albeit a small sample; among 31 Heat lineups that played at least 25 minutes together last season, the Rozier-Herro-Butler-Highsmith-Adebayo lineup posted a 116.0 offensive rating (19th-best) and a minus-9.9 NET (third-worst).

Robinson, a deadeye sharpshooter, looks as healthy as ever–even though it’s very fair to still have concerns about his back injury. Forget his shooting with the immense gravitational pull he oftentimes draws, Robinson’s on-ball development as a slasher, plus his ability as a screener and passer can’t be ignored.

As we’ve seen through two preseason games, a more efficient shot diet with better spacing has been a focal point of this team, which has been a bottom-10 offense with confusing spacing and a poor shot diet each of the last two seasons. A total of 95 of the team’s 101 points either came from the paint, free throw line or 3-point line. Jovic, Highsmith and Robinson can all help their shot diet, even though all three have diverse skill sets.

I’d lean Jovic, and barring injury (it’s worth mentioning he’s coming off a foot/ankle injury), I’d expect him to begin the season as the team’s starter. If you really want to get funky, you could start Jaime Jaquez–even though he operates better being a primary creator with the second unit–or rookie Kel’el Ware, a far more unlikely option at this stage.

While the Heat’s closing lineup is more important, Spoelstra has a good problem to parse through heading into the new season.