However you want to slice the pie, the Miami Heat, a team coming off back-to-back play-in berths without much roster turnover, is quite polarizing heading into the 2024-25 season.
Currently, their Vegas over-under still stands at 44.5 wins–the 8th-most in the Eastern Conference–after winning 44 and 46 over their last two seasons, respectively. They’re still at least a tier or two below a few of the East’s top contenders, namely the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks, while also being viewed behind the Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic.
In a recent interview with the Miami Herald, former Heat head coach Stan Van Gundy opined about the current state of the Heat–let’s just say he was fairly bearish heading into 2024-25.
“I really don’t understand what’s going on there,” Van Gundy told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. “They’re really a win-now team, which I respect, and they haven’t given, put a roster around there that has a chance. I think they got lulled into a false sense of security by the run to the Finals two years ago.
“And it was a great run, but they didn’t have a great team, and they didn’t have a great year. That’s not a very good roster. To me, that’s a play-in roster again.”
Van Gundy, who coached the Heat for two seasons and change from 2003-06, also commented on the team’s roster outlook relative to the rest of the East, stating that Miami doesn’t match up with a few of its East counterparts.
“If you compare them to the top three teams, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, they’re not even in the ballpark roster-wise,” he said. “I don’t think their roster is as good as Indiana, Orlando or Cleveland. No, their roster just doesn’t stack up. They seem like a team to me that has been reliant on Erik Spoelstra working miracles. You can only do that so much. They can make a deal in season of course, but at this point, it would be foolish to say they’re a contender.”
Miami was on the wrong side of a first-round exit to the Boston Celtics a year ago, though it was without two of its best players in Jimmy Butler (sprained MCL) and Terry Rozier (neck); Duncan Robinson (back) was only available by name, so the team was heavily reliant on creation from Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, then-rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic.
The Heat also had 35 different starting lineups last year, and still won 46 games–perhaps they have better injury luck this year (gulp) …. right?!?!?
We won’t be able to make any conclusive decisions until two or three years from now, but it looks as if they hit on the draft with Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson (as well as Isaiah Stevens … maybe?!?!). Plus, the Heat seems to have taken a better approach with their shot diet early in preseason, even though their process of shooting 3s and layups still isn’t completely smooth (work the kinks out now!).
All in all, to Van Gundy’s point, it’s difficult to see them contending. But it’s also difficult to completely rule them out against, say, Indiana or Cleveland, with a healthy Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and, most importantly, Erik Spoelstra “working miracles.” I can’t say I’m a complete believer in this year’s team as a “contender.” But I also reserve the right to look foolish–as many of us did two years ago in 2022-23.
All they have to do is get to mid-April healthy, a task that’s far easier said than done not just for the Heat, but for every team; the postseason is just as much a war of attrition as it is a basketball game.
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The last man with the right saying something like that.
I can’t disagree with Stan. I looked at the Knicks vs Hornets box score last night (the team that beat Miami in the first game of the preseason). NY won 111-105. No big deal, right? Except that Charlotte played their starters (3 of them for over half the game) and New York played none of theirs. Townes, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, Robinson and Brunson did not play at all, zilch, nada, zero, nič!!! BTW, Precious had 20 points, 16 rebounds and 3 assists. Scary shit! Jus sayin.
agree pat hasnt kept up with the bostons and the knicks ,heat are non athletic team ,.jjj nice rotational player not special.ware might be special but hes too tall for eric.look at what the knicks have added last few years u can start with brunson and boston added 2 all stars.phily with george and some addons will thumps us also.jimmys best days in rear view mirror. that one splash player prime jimmy needed never added.i see the heat around 500 this year.teams like charl atl orlando usually been bad for decades are as good as usnow
Yeah Stan, since you had such great success with the Heat and all those championships since then, you are qualified to assess their chances.