We’re still four games into a grueling 82-game season for the Miami Heat, but first impressions matter.
The Miami Heat opened the 2024-25 season with a new starting 5 that didn’t play a single possession last season: Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo. It’s still way-to-early in the NBA season, but through one week, the lineup has not only been one of the worst on the Heat, but in the entire NBA.
According to Cleaning The Glass, whose lineup data filters out any groupings that haven’t played at least 100 possessions, the quintet has posted a league-worst minus-24.6 NET Rating in 117 possessions. That number grades in the 0th percentile. Better yet, it ranks in the 0th percentile in effective field goal percentage (44.5), 6th percentile in offensive rating (96.6) and in the 12th percentile in defensive rating (121.1).
In fairness, there are only 17 lineups that have played at least 100 possessions together, so it’s not a big sample. It’s damning, to say the least.
Adebayo’s gotten off to a slow start on both ends of the floor; Rozier and Herro have been turnstiles at the point-of-attack while Jovic has struggled, at times, on the glass. Butler shouldn’t be exempt from criticism, too, considering he’s laid two eggs in their two losses.
It’s still a very much work in progress with a very small sample. It’s been mediocre to begin games and cataclysmic in the third quarter, where the Heat sport a league-worst NET Rating (-44.4) through four games. It can’t get much worse nor can it afford to, given their daunting 20-game schedule upcoming. Miami can’t let the season slip away before it ever begins.
The Heat only have 12 lineups that have played at least five minutes and four that have played 10, per PBP Stats. Its best that has played 10 has been Alec Burks-Butler-Duncan Robinson-Jaime Jaquez Jr.-Thomas Bryant, sporting a plus-30.0 NET Rating in 15 minutes, believe it or not.
What do you think the immediate solution should be? Let us know in the comments!
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The problem with this team is pretty obvious.
Jimmy is playing like a role player instead of a superstar. Bam is playing like a role player instead of a superstar.
The rest of the team looks good. Tyler looks like he’s leveled up, not just with scoring but with defense and passing and all-around play. Terry plays hard every night. JJJ and Jovic both look like rotation players for a playoff team. My man Dru Smith is out there. And the Heat have 3 vets with playoff experience that aren’t even playing (Love, Duncan, and Highsmith). They’ve got a solid rotation. They just need a couple all-stars to be their best players.
if Jimmy and Bam can play like all-stars, the Heat have enough talent to be in the thick of they playoff race.
But if Jimmy and Bam continue to play like this, the Heat will continue to beat the bad teams and lose to good teams. They’ll get through the play-in and lose in the first round of the playoffs. And most likely Jimmy will get traded to a playoff team in the West by the trade deadline.
It looks like before the start of the season Spo assumed that Bam would be confident enough to launch 3 point shots without getting into his usual rhythm of taking midrange shots.
So far that assumption has failed.
Without his bread and butter the midrange shot Bam has looked lost and confused in this new offense of only rim attacks and 3s.
And to a lesser extent so does Jimmy who also relies on a fair amount of midrange shots.
I imagine it’s like telling a fast ball pitcher just before the start of the mlb season that he can no longer use his fastball he has to rely only on sliders and curveballs to get hitters out.
That would likely cause a fair amount of panic with that pitcher who just lost his ace in the hole.
IMO it was way too optimistic to expect Bam and Jimmy (two nonexistent 3 point shooters prior to this season) to start launching a fair amount of 3s with supreme confidence.
And being in the same unit with 3 other teammates who also need the ball while no longer being a primary option on offense doesn’t help matters either.
The question is what is Spo going do about it from here moving forward.
Will he stick with the current scheme of having the offense run through the 2 Ts (Tyler and Terry) and remain confident that Bam will eventually figure out how to get his shots within the system or does he see this current situation as a small bush fire that he has to put out now before it becomes a California style 5-alarm inferno.
The problem is if the Heat get off to a bad start while Spo is still figuring this thing out then you can bet your life the pitchforks are going to come out.
Then fans will start calling for Pat Rileys’ head, Jimmy’s head, Thomas Bryant’s head, Kevin Love’s head, Spo’s head, the ball boy’s head and probably even Dwyane’s statue’s head.
I tried to tell everyone 😆 🤣
Right. You were the only smart one, lol.😂
Ware
After 4 games its to early to react. Starting lineup really struggled against Orlando and NY in one part of the game, which makes most of the damage to stat. In wins and the rest of time in loosing games this lineup holds its own.
Starting lineup is small. There are small teams which are very successful, but those teams can shoot and move the ball. Heat cant, which is the reason, that Jimmy is playing a lot of his minutes with second unit.
It looks like a move, which brings something, but there is a question. Is there something wrong with the system, which require to move your star out of the starting lineup, or there is something wrong with your star, which cant play against elite players.
Bum and Butler played very well together in past years, but thats not the case any more.
Are they worse then use to be? Are other players better? Or there is something wrong with the rest of the team.
In last case, there is Jovic, which is basically stretch 4 as many others before, and not the worst one. And there are Herro and Rosier, which play decent ball. Why team is bad then?
Its quite a puzzle, and to be more complicated, its not an easy fix, where change a player and everything will works.
I think we should wait next 10-12 games against mostly good or great teams, to see, if this lineup could be better. If we can finish this period with more wins then loses, then there is hope.
If not, major changes should be done.
Oh and Happy Birthday kabayan coach Spo! 😊
That should be our best lineup but the glaring flaw with them is floor spacing. We need a knock shooter on the court with bam jimmy and Tyler. I feel like Spo is letting this lineup run in part to prove a point that Tyler should come off bench Duncan Robinson should start, jovic is still developing and will probably benefit playing against the backups on the other team, and ware need to get on the court with bam to solidify paint defense. Bam should cut down the 3s a little and get back to banging and when the opportunity presents itself then shoot. Jimmy needs to be a dog and Tyler needs to realize he’s not “THAT” guy. I love the heat and have the upmost respect for Spo and Pat but we gotta shake something up.
We are 2-2, but with wins over two of the lesser teams. It’s too early to over-react, but eventually, if the trends are confirmed that this is at best a mediocre team, we should do one of three things;1) Make a trade using two role players and a pick, and get a quality big. 2) Put Ware in the line-up. He could become a key part in any success we have and we have no one else who has that potential. 3) Trade Jimmy, start to transition into a new era.
And, if we are around 6-9 at the fifteen game mark, the one thing we should not do is continue to run this thing back. It was an underwhelming off season and could be a seriously depressing regular season if we stay Pat.
option 2 please coach 30.option3 puts us in the lottery,opt 1 unrealistic
Makes sense.
Individually they look good but sucks as a group as per stats here. Defense looks good needs some tweaking when guys like softkittykat and banchero goes off. In offense it looks like my-turn your-turn, Spo needs to fix that and hopefully turn it around ala 2023 playoffs where the open guy gets the shot while Jimmy and Bam do their thing. Go Heat!
Start Jaquez. Use Burkes, Highsmith, Jovic. Dru Smith and Ware off the bench.
what does this coach see in cluncan .sure hes the fastest to so and so 3s all the guy does is shoot 3s.one good year of 3s .the worse fn defender in nba.i watch lots games nobody plays d as bad as cluncan.he hasnt shot it good in years and hasnt defended good from birth.ridiculous hes getting mins ova locksmith and burks.nba is all about athletes.its like the qb position in football the pocket passers of the world are history gotta be able to run now
“nba is all about athletes”… Tell this Luka and Jokic, to stop wasting time playing basketball.
two superstar outliers.game is about athletes sir.like ive been saying for years cluncan would have been an all star in the 1960s.i always felt he sukd even when he use to make 3s at a decent clip the amount of pts he was letting in made him a negative.last 3 years hasnt shot it good unplayable with that sht d
Spo not playing Burks who’s shooting 75% from 3 and has one of the best net ratings on the team is insane.
It requires serious amounts of over-thinking.