Miami, you have a third quarter problem

An old, ugly trend has crept up yet again for the 2024-25 Miami Heat through six games.

They entered the new campaign two seasons removed from being the second-worst team in the NBA in the third quarter, in terms of NET Rating, which measures a team’s efficiency per 100 possessions. They finished with a minus-7.5 NET in 2022-23, trailing only the then-35-win Indiana Pacers, who had a minus-7.6 NET.

Well, that glaring trend’s perked up once again. On Monday, the Miami Heat squandered a 13-point halftime lead in the third quarter, losing the frame by 20 points–the second time this season and the 20th time in franchise history they’ve lost the third by 20-plus. The Sacramento Kings ultimately pulled off a gutty one-point win over Miami, 111-110, behind Domantas Sabonis’ game-winning putback with 0.7 seconds left.

According to Stathead, there are only three other instances where it’s lost the 3Q by at least 20 points twice in a single season since the turn of the century: 2006-07, 2014-15 and 2022-23. It’s never happened more than twice. Miami’s already done so twice in six games.

If you eliminate the third quarter from Monday’s loss, the Heat outscored Sacramento by 19. The biggest thing that matters, however, is the final tally–and their inability to string together quality basketball for 48 minutes has been the biggest reason why.

“That’s been the deciding factor in a lot of our games,” Bam Adebayo told reporters Monday. “It’s the 3rd qtr, honestly. Not 1st half, 4th, it’s the 3rd. We let our foot off the gas, let teams back in it to be interesting. It’s cost us games.”

In six games, the Heat’s third quarter NET Rating is a league-worst minus-35.5, 0.5 points per 100 behind the Utah Jazz (-35.0), 0.9 behind Portland (-34.6) and over 17 behind Brooklyn (-18.2), the fourth-worst. Here is their NET Rating by each quarter:

1Q: +9.4 (8th)
2Q: +18.5 (3rd)
3Q: -35.5 (last)
4Q: 9.4 (8th)

Believe it or not, the Heat’s first-half NET Rating is plus-14, the sixth-best mark in the NBA, despite the starting lineup sporting a minus-1 NET across a 43-minute first-half sample. In the second half, their NET Rating dwindles to minus-12.9, looking complacent and out of sorts on both ends of the hardwood.

One immediate solution doesn’t appear clear. There’s a multitiude of issues, some of which are mitigated by more energy and disposition on both sides of the ball. That’s easier said than done, of course. Perhaps Erik Spoelstra does need to explore with different combinations quicker, and who knows whether that helps eliminate this plaguing issue.

“When we ain’t making shots, that’s when team’s go on runs,” Butler said. “We don’t get back, we don’t defensive rebound. It is a defensive thing, but for us it’s more offense. We want to see that ball go through that basket. Mentally, we need to be stronger amd tougher to still get stops and that’s the big problem.”

Regardless of the root cause each game, it needs to be fixed as the Heat enter one of their toughest stretches of the season. They will play six straight on the road with eight of their next nine and 14 of their next 20 against teams who made the postseason last year. The trek doesn’t get any easier from here–especially since their next four opponents are above average in … you guessed it … the third quarter.