It’s been a busy week on the Jimmy Butler news front.
From ESPN NBA insider Shams Charania reporting that the Miami Heat are opening to listen to potential offers to Butler’s agent road raging online toward Charania at Butler’s expense, we could all just take one (or multiple) deep breath.
Whether he’s traded or not before the Feb. 6 deadline, Butler has the option to opt out of his $52.4 million player option and become an unrestricted free agent. Though one former front office executive believes the Heat is still in complete control of the situation regardless.
“At the end of the day, the Heat are in the driver’s seat,” ESPN’s Bobby Marks said Friday. “Even if Jimmy Butler has a hissy fit, which I don’t think is going to happen because they’re winning, they’re in the driver’s seat man. They don’t have to do anything with Jimmy Butler.
“Jimmy Butler can play out this year, decline his option and become a free agent. And I know the threat is there that he can go sign somewhere else, and my question is: Who? Who is Jimmy Butler going to sign with? The only time that has cap space is Brooklyn, and you think Brooklyn’s going to want a 36-year-old Jimmy Butler, paying him (over) $50 million dollars? The answer is no.”
Marks is spot on here. Brooklyn has been linked to Butler since the summer. But they are a 10-15 team playing above their head and will likely be trying to #CaptureTheFlagg™ sooner rather than later.
That doesn’t, however, guarantee that a team won’t open up cap space for Butler. After all, Miami did execute a four-team sign-and-trade to sign Butler without any cap space in 2019. It’s not impossible, but the Heat were nowhere near the hard-cap. It’s not practical for most of these destinations without additional salary being shed.
The Heat will also own Butler’s bird rights at the end of this season, allowing them to re-sign Butler to any amount up to the max if he’s going to opt-out; barring something unforeseen, all indications point to him doing so. He’s on track to play 64 games, having his most efficient season in a Heat uniform and has still been impactful on both ends–albeit inconsistently.
That won’t be the only conundrum Miami will have, either. Terry Rozier’s $24.9 million in guaranteed money will be expiring; Duncan Robinson owns a $19.9 million early termination option; Haywood Highsmith and Kevin Love will be entering the last years of their respective deals, too, with Tyler Herro having two years left (becoming extension eligible).
Miami will obviously have just more than Butler’s contract to navigate, but both sides are likely well aware that the most realistic solution is the two sides remaining together if a trade isn’t made given other organizations’ cap situations.
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This year, Jimmy Butler is being paid $48.8 million. If he opts in to play in Miami in 2025-2026, he will receive $52.4 million. This past summer, he was seeking a two year extension that would include salaries of $54.3 million for the 2025-26 season (nearly a $2 million increase from the player option in Butler’s current contract for that season) and $58.6 million for the 2026-2027 season when Butler will be 37 years old.
There are few teams willing or able to give Butler a maximum contract extension for 2026 & 2027. If teams wait until he opts out of his contract next summer, they can sign him directly without needing to trade valuable assets to Miami to get him. More than likely, if there is a team interested in him they will not offer him a maximum multi-year contract and will need to enter a sign & trade agreement with Miami to get him.
Bottom line is that Jimmy will probably stay with Miami this season, opt in for next season (for $52.4 million) and either 1) negotiate a new contract with the Heat or 2) sign with another NBA team after the 2025-2026 season.
If Jimmy truly loves Miami and wants to retire as a member of the Heat, I think he will opt in next summer, play for the Heat in 2025-2026 and negotiate a team friendly/ reduced amount two year contract for 2026-2027 and 2027-2028 to remain/retire in Miami.
Who? Who is Jimmy Butler going to sign with?
Exactly.
I m preaching that for a half of a year now.
And about the trade?
There are two posibilities.
-A random team sees Butler as a vital piece for winning it all this year , or this year and next year. so that team would trade for him to play out this contract. Lets say GS can fit into it. In this case Butler would be half year rental, if he opts out, or 1.5 year rental, if opts in.
-A random team sees Butler as a crucial part of a future, and trade for him and give him an extension of 2-3 years in the neighbourhood of 50 a year.
The first options wont give back a lot in return, and no extension to Butler. The second one is not likely.