Can the Miami Heat afford to prioritize cap space in 2026?

Given Jimmy Butler’s unhappiness, there’s uncertainty about how the Miami Heat roster will look in 1-2 weeks, let alone in 2026. After all, a lot can happen in a short amount of time in the NBA.

Two years ago, the Heat were trying to make their second NBA Finals in four years; Gabe Vincent and Max Strus were mainstays in the Heat rotation; Jimmy Butler was joyful (!!!) while having his best season with the Heat; Caleb Martin was the franchise’s starting power forward after PJ Tucker’s departure; Haywood Highsmith was getting his first taste of NBA basketball; Dewayne Dedmon was throwing Theragun’s on a basketball court during a live game … yes, that actually happened.

The point is: A lot can happen! This league is very fluid, even if the Heat kept their main core together over the last six seasons.

A recent analysis piece from the Miami Herald’s great Barry Jackson hinted at the Heat potentially prioritizing cap space ahead of the 2026-27 season after Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson are potentially off the books. According to Jackson, the Heat have roughly $85 million on payroll, more than enough space for a max contract and then some under the $170 million projected cap.

“This is something the Heat is very much cognizant of, though the organization also would be receptive to adding a pricey player on a long-term contract before then if it’s a genuine difference-maker, according to a league source,” Jackson wrote.

“If the Heat trades Butler before the Feb. 6 trade, taking back a player whose contract runs through 2025-26 isn’t necessarily a nonstarter, provided it’s a good player and that the Heat is incentivized to do so with another asset (which could be a draft pick).

“But for Miami to even consider taking back a player with major money owed past 2025-26? That would be highly unlikely unless it’s a star.”

But is that a pragmatic route to explore? And how realistic is it to leverage cap space into a star? Let’s examine.

The Heat will only have two players on guaranteed salary that offseason: Bam Adebayo ($51.0M) and Tyler Herro ($33.0M). Three others–Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Pelle Larsson–have team options worth a combined $13.4 million on the books that offseason, as well. Either way, that’s more than enough wiggle room for a max contract that will be worth up to $60 million in the first year.

A few notable names for that free agent class include Damian Lillard (entering 15th season), Kevin Durant (20th), Zach LaVine (13th), Trae Young (9th), Luka Doncic (9th), Fred VanVleet (11th), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (9th), James Harden (17th) and De’Aaron Fox (9th). Butler will also be a free agent, assuming he opts in without signing an extension.

There is a world where most players re-sign for up to the max–or in Harden’s case the last time he was a free agent, account for close to 20-25 percent of the cap. Barring something unforeseen, you can already rule out Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander, who recently expressed a desire to stay in Oklahoma City.

The unfortunate reality is free agency is fairly non-existent in today’s NBA, since few teams have legitimate. The Philadelphia 76ers were a rare exception last summer, maximizing the amount of cap space available to re-sign Tyrese Maxey while shuffling deck chairs around him and Joel Embiid. They signed Paul George to a max extension, plucked Caleb Martin from the Heat, signed Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond and re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr., among others. Most teams that do have cap space–such as the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons–have been dumping grounds for cap space to collect additional assets.

However, I predict there may be a (slight) correction in the market, depending on the circumstances between team and player. The Clippers didn’t choose to re-sign Paul George, an injury-prone wing entering his age-34 season; the Miami Heat are currently saying no to giving Butler, an injury-prone 35-year-old, a max extension. In today’s two-apron era, teams may be more unwilling to pay onerous contracts to aging stars on the decline in the second-apron era. Teams may also be more apprehensive about dealing away a plethora of draft capital–a la having players on cost-controlled contracts–which is more valuable in this era now that there are more punitive restrictions on paying more than two max players.

Thus, cap space and space to complete sign-and-trades–if operating above-the-cap–could become more valuable. Not all max contracts are created equally, nor is all flexibility. Look at the 2017 offseason, for example. But Miami will always be hunting for that next big “star,” especially if it owns more tradable assets. What we know is if they prioritize max cap space in 2026, Miami will have more vehicles to drive; how they travel will be a more feasible question, once that time arrives.