We are officially at the All-Star break with 29 games left in the Miami Heat schedule. The team has lost four straight, but we are only three games into this new build with Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson in the fold.
We were welcomed with Mitchell starting all three games for the Heat this week–the only one of the aforementioned trio to play all three games. While Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has deployed 14 different starting lineups this season, should that trend continue? The closing lineup is more important than the one that starts, but let’s parse through both arguments!
Why Mitchell should continue starting:
One player doesn’t always influence how a team plays–it’s why plus-minus can be such a flawed stat. That said, the Heat has inarguably played better when Mitchell’s been on the floor in the first quarter. From the opening tip to the final whistle, his tenacious point-of-attack defense and burst into the open floor are contagious.
In three starts, the Heat sport a plus-33.7 NET Rating with an 80.4 defensive rating across 57 possessions when Mitchell’s on the floor in the opening quarter. His usage in those lineups is 14.5 percent, which isn’t very high. But he averages 6.6 assists per 75 possessions (without a single turnover)–in addition to 14.5 points and 2.7 turnovers. It’s an incredibly small sample, but those are staggering numbers for a player integrated into this offense this week.
Mitchell, 26, complements Tyler Herro and doesn’t necessarily need the ball in his hands to be impactful. With the two bigs, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro together hasn’t always been reliable, especially defensively. Not to mention, Mitchell’s decision-making and connectivity have looked good early in games–providing a spark the Heat hasn’t had since Dru Smith’s injury. His shot-making is hit-and-miss, but he’s done a good job generating paint touches and keeping the offense flowing regardless of the pairings/trios he’s been a part of.
If Mitchell shares the floor with Herro-Wiggins-Adebayo-Ware, you’re looking at a lineup with two good playmakers, at least three above-average defenders and rebounders plus potentially three good shooters. That’s incredibly well-balanced.
Why Mitchell shouldn’t:
Well, the spacing is compromised when he’s on the floor with both Ware and Adebayo–regardless of the other two players in those lineups.
It’s been a work in progress with Ware-Adebayo the entire season and will be for the final 29 games (and beyond). They’ve fit well defensively, but with that pair together, Miami boasts a 110.1 offensive rating despite shooting 37.6 percent from 3-point range. That’s a 3-point percentage that’s slightly above league-average, though the offensive rating would rank sixth-worst and 1.1 points per 100 below its current offensive rating for the season (111.2 — 21st).
We have not seen Andrew Wiggins with both Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro yet. But when Herro-Robinson-Adebayo-Ware shared the floor together, the offensive rating slightly improved to 110.3; adding Jovic elevated it to 112.5, albeit in just 18 minutes (32 possessions). Wiggins and Jovic are on the same tier as shooters, but Mitchell is nowhere near Robinson from a gravitational standpoint–despite being the far better defender at the point-of-attack.
Mitchell coming off the bench for 25 minutes a night wouldn’t be a demotion. He and Jovic could provide that spark with any two of Alec Burks, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith, Pelle Larsson and Kyle Anderson behind him. Take your pick.
Verdict:
I think Davion Mitchell should start, but I see both sides of the coin. What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments!
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He is our only and therefore the best point guard. A lot of problems Heat have are connected with playmaking. And he is also a great defender.
So he should start.
Absolutely! Until/unless Miami has a legitimate two-way point guard who can also score 15ppg+, Mitchell is the best option. Without him, the OKC and Dallas outcomes would have been far worse.
Mitchell should continue to start, Miami problem is is players are not playing with enough toughness and physicality plus we’re standing around too much, not enough effort plays. We don’t secure enough 50/50 balls.