At this point last year, Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier was recovering from a sprained knee suffered on Super Bowl Sunday against the Boston Celtics. He was just finding his footing in the rotation, but was set to return not long after the All-Star Break.
Upon his return in late Feb., Rozier averaged 19.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists on 45.2/42.3/88.9 shooting splits across his next 20 games, adding a degree of shotmaking and playmaking the Heat were desperately missing.
However, Rozier ultimately went down with a season-ending neck injury, missing the team’s final 11 games (four reg. season, two play-in, five postseason). I had serious questions about how Rozier–and Duncan Robinson, who was dealing with a serious back injury at the tail-end of last season–would look after a potentially life-threatening injury.
The results haven’t been fruitful, with the soon-to-be 31-year-old having one of the least efficient seasons of his career. He’s averaging 12.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists on 40.7 percent shooting and 30.6 percent from 3-point range.
Now that the Heat picked a direction at the deadline, leaning into more youth and defensively-minded players, head coach Erik Spoelstra has a decision he must make regarding Rozier’s status in the rotation for the final 29 games of the season.
Erik Spoelstra must take Terry Rozier out of rotation:
Obviously, you want to all players succeed. The unfortunate reality is that’s never the case. Rozier hasn’t been good with the Heat at all this season, point blank.
There’s no reason to showcase him the rest of the season, no matter how well he played. The league knows who the 10th-year guard is at this point–they should not be swayed one way or the other.
It’s not super often that one player can sway how an entire lineup plays one way or the other, but Rozier’s been a negative on both ends of the floor this season. The Heat has been 6.5 points per 100 possessions better with Rozier off the floor in non-garbage-time situations, according to Cleaning the Glass; they are 4.6 better offensively with a better effective field goal percentage by 3.1 points.
He will dribble the team out of actions and be ruthlessly hunted at the point-of-attack defensively, Rozier’s most positive attribute is his rebounding–he’s an excellent rebounding guard–but that alone doesn’t make up for the value lost elsewhere.
There’s no clean “replacement” for Rozier outside of newly-acquired Davion Mitchell. But Alec Burks, Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Kyle Anderson and Pelle Larsson all offer more value as connectors with greater defensive aptitude. For much of Rozier’s most recent stretch, he’s capitalized off secondary actions, which each of the aforementioned players can also do with better fluidity.
It’s nothing against Rozier, but it’s in the best interest of the team for him not to be in the rotation for the time being. The Heat have a glut of serviceable players who can accentuate and enable lineups better than the current version of Rozier. We are 53 games into the season; we have a good sample of low-impact basketball that can’t be understated.
The ball is in Erik Spoelstra’s court. And he must make that conscious decision because both the data and eye test suggest he currently doesn’t belong in the nine-man rotation for the rest of the 2024-25 season.
***
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!
hes got chris bosh issue wow terrible news
Wow, Wemby out for the season. Vascular problems. Get well soon.
too much height
No, I don’t think that’s the issue. Plenty of tall guys do not get that condition. For tall guys, it is more likely to see things like micro fractures of the foot or knees like with Yao and Oden.
Woah.
Sitting here in Cali chillin thinking of different line-ups. What about Herro, Jaquez, Wiggins, Bam and Ware. Jaquez can handle the ball/relieve Herro of some of the PG duties, rebound, make a pass or two, defend better than average and isn’t afraid to drive and pound and draw fouls or dish to one of the big guys under the basket. I think if he were given the opportunity, he would shine/maybe excel. He needs to work on his 3. Who knows, by spreading the offense out, maybe he’ll get wide open 3’s and make a few more.
Player/Age (Height)
Bam: 27 (6’9″)
Ware: 20 (7’0″)
Wiggins: 29 (6’7″)
Jaquez: 24 (6’6″)
Herro : 25 (6’5″)
Total years: 125
Average Age: 25
Average Height: 6′ 8″
pick one jaime of shnozic and roll with one give one extended playing time prob trade the other.i like jaimes game for the nba more than the european shnoz.jaimes minutes just not there.we know what dunc can do its not good enough spobot give juan wick 25 mins a game let the kid play.i know hes tough and can play adeguate d.if jaime doesnt produce the next 30 games with extended minutes then at least we have an idea of his future.shnoz in the nba will never flourish .jjj has a chance.i know shnoz is young but i dont know what he does well.
Jovic has potential but is still immature. He does not play under control. He needs to learn how to be more aggressive and maximize his size. He could use a couple of weeks in an MMA training camp in order to toughen up. Hopefully, both Jaquez and Jovic can continue developing and become solid, reliable and consistent players by the end of the season. If they don’t, they will be expendable this summer.
Jaime struggles to create an advantage from the top of the key for his teammates. Maybe it’s just a reps thing though
The problem right now is that they Heat have a bunch of good young bigs, but a dearth of ballhandling guards. If Mitchell and Slo-Mo can handle the ball, then maybe Terry goes to the bench. But if even one of those guys is an unreliable ballhandler, the Heat probably still need Terry
Dearth? I wish we had a plethora instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWld721Wk-Q
Rozier is a good player should move Kevin love an Alec Burks
lebron foot soreness could be the beginning of the end was looking forward to seeing him and luka tonight
I saw the game, LeBron balled out. Luka looked like he’s doesn’t know his teammates names
yeah saw game bron was great though he missed 2 3s at end.luka was chucking 25 footers all night.believe reaves got tossed from game that dud can play ..ball is the biggest ball hog he was making some shots but u cant win with his style of play.i would never want his ars on the heat.i would like to have seen riley get nurkic as a backup center.luka will be fine hes luka.generational player
For the time being, I believe the rotation should include the following:
1st Unit: Ware, Bam, Wiggins, Herro, Mitchell
2nd Unit: Jovic, Anderson, Highsmith, Jaquez, Robinson, Burks
3rd Unit: Love, Highsmith, Johnson, Larsson, Rozier
Notes:
Bam, Herro and Wiggins (Player option) are the only players with guaranteed contracts through 2026-2027.Jovic, Herro and Wiggins become extension eligible prior to the beginning of the 2025-2026 seasonJaquez, Ware and Johnson have team options prior to the beginning of the 2025-2026 seasonThe rest have contracts expiring in 2024-2025 or 2025-2026.Two-way (G League) players Stevens, Smith and Christopher become restricted free agents at the end of the 2024-2025 season.**Should be played/evaluated to the extent possible over the next seven weeks to determine if qualifying offers should be made to each.
Oops. Highsmith in 3rd unit.
I know Terry has not shot well, but some of that has been because he was first option much of the time and he should be second option or third, depending on personnel. And he still can create his own shot better than most on the team. So, I don’t think he is as disappointing as some, but for his contract, the money could be better spent elsewhere.
I completely agree. Rozier is having a bad season but, generally speaking, he is better than he’s shown. In part, it seems like it was a poor fit. As you point out, his contractual money would be better spent elsewhere.
wonder if gambling thing is messing with him .hes been to good his whole career to be this heat bad.his rebounding and defense have been pretty good .he use to be a legit 2 way player who was lightning quick.quickness not there but hes built like a football player now.we could really use a good terry that would really help us out alot.
Yup, this is the worst I have ever seen him play. It still seems like the skill set is there, but his shooting has been way off. Who knows?
i know if i had this pending charge it would effect my whole life hes to good player to play like this.
I think he came back this year thinking he had something to prove. Unfortunately, the harder he tries to perform at an unreasonable level, the worse his performs. If he can’t slow down, play under control, quit playing “Herro Ball”, and be more of a facilitator, I don’t think he should be playing …ESPECIALLY AT CRUNCH TIME!
Maybe what he needs is time on the bench and put things in perspective. If the criminal thing is affecting his mental health, he should receive professional help and be benched until the matter is resolved. A crappy version of Rozier is not what the team needs. If he is benched, I would like to see Stevens get some of his minutes.
hes not a distributor never was .hes a pure scorer.gotta be on his mind this gambling mess..id love to see stevens.he looks like a pure pg.ty is not a pg hes a scorer too..im not sure why hh is so nonchelant on offense.ive seen him do some nice things but just not enough to warrant minutes.i would think top 15 coach would say to him i love your d but i need some more scoring out of u to play u alot.hes got some tools in his chest but hardly uses them
Rozier had 6.6 assists per game in Charlotte in 2023-2024 before being traded to Miami. His assists dropped to 4.6 after he was traded to Miami and this year he’s averaging 2.9.
As far as Highsmith, I would prefer a player with less potential but with more aggressiveness on offense. Rozier is too aggressive and Highsmith is too passive. Neither should be in the rotation until they fix what is wrong with their games.
terrys a 2 in a 1 body.hes a good player keep him in rotation law of averages says he will break out soon.10 year track record of above avg stats
He’s got to get his head clear on his role on this team. It’s not the 2023-2024 Hornets who needed him to chucking up as many shots as possible. He has a defined role now. If he isn’t mentally up to it, Spo should bench him until he is. Like others, I believe the ongoing criminal investigation for his alleged “fixing” a game may have him preoccupied.
i would think that pending case is on his mind how could it not be .could be a criminal case.wares gonna have to pick up his offensive game with bam sun it doesnt look good when both on ct.top 15 coach has to figure out roles for them
A good point guard who could spread the offense out and feed the scorers would help them figure it out sooner than later.
The offense has no rhythm or consistent strategy. It seems the starting line-up, rotation and offensive approach varies from game to game. No consistent coaching strategy or offensive stability either.
All season that first step quickness has come and gone. His hops have come and gone.
I wonder if there are any lingering effects from the injury last season, physical and mental.