The All-Star break is over and the Miami Heat play basketball today! We are now in the final 29-game stretch which could be pivotal for now and the future for the Miami Heat, who are currently riding a season-long four-game losing streak and are 25-28. What are some important questions for the rest of the season? Here are six I have!
How will the Kel’el Ware-Bam Adebayo frontcourt continue to look offensively?
A burgeoning development this season has been the rapid growth of first-round rookie Kel’el Ware, who entered the starting lineup full-time in mid-January alongside three-time All-Star Bam Adebayo. The pairing has flourished defensively, but it’s been a major work in progress offensively. Despite sporting an 8.9 NET Rating in 205 minutes (396 possessions) together, the Heat owns a 110.1 offensive rating when both share the floor despite shooting 37.6 percent from deep.
The aforementioned offensive rating would be, if extrapolated over 82 games, a bottom-six unit while the 3-point percentage would be a top-9 clip. Both Ware and Adebayo are capable floor spacers, but not super reliable nor will defenses pay them their respects. Surrounding them with more functional spacing that properly balances the duo has been an experiment for head coach Erik Spoelstra–and it will be for the rest of the season with Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson in the fold.
Can Andrew Wiggins look fully acclimated by end of 2024-25 season?
Andrew Wiggins made his debut last week and the results were below average, albeit against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, two of the best defenses in the NBA (against wings). He averaged 12.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists, shooting just 29.2 percent with a true shooting percentage of 42.9 percent. In all fairness, he started both games well offensively, but couldn’t maintain a rhythm as the game went on.
I wouldn’t expect a newly-acquired starter who’s acclimating to a completely new system to fit in right away. It’s a completely different stylistically. He had a mixed bag of results as a creator and remained active defensively and on the offensive glass, but I’m curious to see how he acclimates himself by season’s end. Will he get to that stage where he’s consistently averaging 16-17-plus points on relative efficiency and above-average defense?
Can Heat avoid being a bottom-third offense for the third-straight year?
The Heat have dropped to No. 21 in offensive rating and are the league’s fifth-worst offense since the start of the New Year. Over that span, they are operating at the fourth-slowest pace with the eighth-worst effective field goal and true-shooting percentages. It has not been smooth sailing, especially in the fourth quarter.
If this holds true, this would be the third straight season that Miami finished as a bottom-third offense after doing so just twice over their previous 14 seasons. A few of the teams they’re behind: A tanking Utah Jazz, directionless Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, who will be without Victor Wembanyama the rest of the season. If the Heat find a groove, they can get back to being a middle-of-the-pack offense (which would be fitting for a mediocre team) once again. But that will be easier said than done after weeks of struggle.
Will Terry Rozier have any role in the rotation moving forward?
You can read more of my thoughts on the matter here. But we now have a 53-game sample of Terry Rozier not making a positive impact in the rotation on either side of the hardwood. There are more complementary pieces–Alec Burks, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Anderson and Pelle Larsson, to name a few–that simply fit better than Rozier, respectfully. This hasn’t worked. And there’s no reason to drag this out any longer, barring injury elsewhere.
Can Tyler Herro find rhythm established over first three months?
At no point in Tyler Herro’s career has he been tasked with a greater creation burden than he has this season. For the first three months, the first-time All-Star was terrific. But he recently hit a midseason rut where the efficiency significantly dipped and the decision-making went awry.
Over his last 10 games, he averaged 23.1 points, albeit on 41.5 percent shooting and 27.9 percent shooting from deep (10.4 3PA!!!!). It was always going to be difficult for the 25-year-old to sustain a 40-percent 3-point shooting clip on the highest volume of his career because of how defenses were game-planning for him, but that’s a significant dip from where it was over his first 41 games (40.7 3P% on 9.6 3PA!). While his assist rate over his last 10 games has spiked by 10 percentage points–teams are blitzing and delegating more attention to him–his turnover rate’s increased by nearly five percentage points.
This is the next growth in his game, which will be great for him (and the team) long term. This is the first time he’s been a primary creator for this long. If he can re-kindle some of his early-season efficiency with the playmaking chops he continues to show over their final 29 games, the Heat’s offense should be in a much better place than it has been recently.
How will wing rotation look during final stretch?
This is perhaps the most interesting question because I am not sure there’s a right answer.
Outside of Wiggins, the Heat have myriad options off the bench to round out the rotation. For the sake of conversation, we’ll exclude Rozier even though Spoelstra may or may not still rely on him. But they can go to any of Burks, Larsson, Anderson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith, Robinson or Jovic. They have seven guys to essentially fill four spots, and that’s not counting Keshad Johnson or any of the two-ways (who have played 28 minutes combined sans Dru Smith).
Who rounds it out? Who does Spoelstra rely on the most? You could pencil in Jovic and Robinson in, at the minimum, but who does he call on a night-ot-night basis? Could it be everyone at different points or will it be mainly 2-3 different players?
It makes for a very interesting thought. Do you have any questions about the second half of the season? Let us know in the comments!
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-Ware-Bam pairing is a given.
-Wiggins is our best small forward. Hopefully he can be better.
-Some day will somebody hit something.
-Anybody but Rosier.
-Hopefully.
-Mitchell, Herro, Wiggins, Bam, Ware, Jovic will play. ….. all the rest is in the air.
I agree, and spo probably should go deep into the bench nightly, depending on matchups, and if certain bench options aren’t producing.
after bam ty wiggy ware all others are shakey.mitchell havent seen enough of but based on track record prob a backup.the top end roster aint good enough for jewelry after top 4 not good enough for top 6 seed .just need better players.pats fault spo cant do sht w/o better players