There are 26 games left in the 2024-25 season, and the Miami Heat has been trapped in quicksand for practically the entire season.
On Monday, they hit a new low. They lost 98-86 in the final game of a five-game road trip to the Atlanta Hawks, shooting just 32.1 percent from the floor and 7-of-40 from 3-point range, their third-worst 3-point shooting game (min. 30 3PA) in franchise history.
It was their least efficient offensive performance of the season and they dropped to four games below .500 — 26-30 — for the first time this season. It’s now time to face reality, one everyone was hoping to avoid for a third straight campaign.
Miami Heat will likely be play-in team for third-straight season:
As it stands right now, after Monday’s loss, the Miami Heat is tied with the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference despite being one game better in the loss column.
Both teams are four games ahead of the Chicago Bulls (23-35) while resting 1.5 games back of the beleaguered Orlando Magic (29-30).
The issue is that the Heat is five games back of the surging Detroit Pistons, the No. 6 seed in the East. Detroit, led by first-year All-Star Cade Cunningham, has won seven straight and climbed to 32-26 on Monday.
With or without Jimmy Butler, Miami’s been a .500 team each of the last three seasons. It owns the seventh-easiest schedule for the rest of the season (solely based on opp. win pct.), but they are running out of time to make up five games against a Pistons squad playing their best basketball.
It’s also not likely that they fall below the Brooklyn Nets–who are 5.5 games back–unless they get very hot and the Heat completely bottom out. The latter is more likely than the former.
Thus, the likelihood, barring something drastic, is that you will have to circle April 15-18 on your calendar for the third straight year. I guess you can pencil in the Bulls, Hawks and Heat to fight for at least one playoff spot each year, eh?
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ware bam wiggy ty stevens johnson christopher alondes should be first eight.know what the others are .not very good
I’ll start with some things I’ve been saying for a while:
Okay, that out of the way, I’ll add my two newest caveats
I still don’t hate the Butler trade. But I think it’s gonna be ugly this season. The Heat might have two picks next draft, and make a minor trade, and I think they’ll be good by next season. But I think the rest of this season will be a tough one.
Well…some where hoping Tyler was a Booker-type player, Nico a poor man’s Luka, JJJ well…himself at least like his rookie year. Now KWare…Wemby lite hehe. Heat’s outlook and plans for these kids are very promising. It still is. But now the team is in a bit of a rut. A familiar place yet still uncomfortable. Some teams are used to it for years, now they’re looking like a good team…Det, Orl, Hou, OKC…specially OKC! I’ve asked this question before. Can we go through that route? It makes me cringe to even think about tanking (making me cringe now). Maybe some other changes? Riles steps down? New system…eh Spo?
when lebron plays minn this thursday he will be the third best player on the ct.talent wins in nba coaching means diddly .ty needs to be second best player next year if not wont be a good season for us
Agreed on Tyler shouldn’t be our best player
if ty is your third best player u are competing with bost cleve.2nd best player competing with ny milw
What a SkyForce stat line for Alondes tonight – 40 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 7 steals, 64% fg%, 55% 3p%.
guy is super talented gotta be something missing cant stick with any teams.
Probably consistency.
id like to find out seasons ova hes a fun guy to watch.
He is, but unfortunately not currently on a 2 way contract. I’d settle for seeing Stevens, Keshad, and Christopher.
not into aprons 2 way contracts expiring contracts like u rc alondes looks like a two way player with a zero contract.duncs a 0 way player on a 20 mil contract.lifes not fair alondes u need to hire drew rosenhaus
Yes, we agree, like most here, that the 2 worst Heat contracts in the last 5 years were Duncan and Lowry. I said it then and feel the same way now. And don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t against having either of them, but not at $90 million and $85 million. If those 2 had salaries of about $10 million each (Lowry is now making about $3 million), we would have had over $27 million per year for another player. And that could have made a huge difference in the Butler years. A few of the names making that $ right now? Brook, Kuzma, Brunson, Barrett, Harris, DeRozan, Collins. Imagine if we had any one of those alongside Butler, Bam, Herro.
brunson was always going to the knicks cause of his father.the others were doable.ty really wasnt good til this year either injured or inconsistent.we needed size to combat ad and joker for jewelry.seeing bam try to guard joker was comical.problem finally addressed but jimmy split town .
But it wasn’t my point to say any of them would’ve come here, only that that was the level of players available in that price range. And stop with the Herro wasn’t good. He was good when he got here. He wasn’t AS GOOD as now, and, yes, he had some injuries, but this is the fourth year in a row that he is averaging over 20 points a game. Do you know how many players average 20 points a game each year? About 10%. I imagine the number of players who averaged 20 points a game for four years is an even smaller percentage.Before last year, when he missed 40 games, he played in 66 and 67 games.
Anyway, to my earlier point, you could have had a lineup, salary wise, of Bam, Brook, Butler, Herro, and either Lowry or Vincent at pg. Bench of Strus, Duncan, Tucker, Dedmon/Yurt, Martin, and Highsmith. Butler was at the top of his game at that point, and so you add a big PF that could hit the 3 point shot, rebound, and block shots, that would’ve been a good team. But you could substitute any of those players and the team would’ve been considerably better if we had that money available. Those two bad contracts prevented us from having a team like that.
u forgot how bad ty was on d when he was slender he was sought out by other teams all the time.he has improved alot defensively to rc.1/2 the game is played on the defensive end.also he was volume shooting alot to get those pts 17 attempts a game never shooting above 45% .i would say overall before this year an above average all round player.now with improved d and higher shooting % def good player .maybe top 20-25 player.a good 2ndor hopefully next year 3rd option
I didn’t forget that. But he still was a very good offensive player. So, not a bad overall player, just not a complete player.
twice the player he is now than before,until recently he wasnt taking wild shots.his d is so much better.shot selection better so shooting % better.top 25 player need a player or two better.
You are correct! I wonder if it’s the first time lol! Jk bro…
max better than dunc?lol
I didn’t realize Williams is the only top 4 player on SkyForce with a good 3pt%. Most have a turnover problem. Johnson appears to be the most NBA ready.
Williams good fg%, 3pt%, ft%, apg, ppg, however 4.1 turnovers pg
Johnson good fg%, rpg, spg, bpg, ppg. however, 32.9 3pt%
Stevens good fg%, ft%, apg, spg, however, 30.3 3pt%, 3.7 t.o. and 13.3 ppg
Christopher good fg%, rpg, spg, ppg, however 29.9 3pt% and 3.2 t.o.
Alondes Williams:
33.9 mpg, 57.3 fg%, 38.2 3pt%, 82.9 ft%, 3.4 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.7 bpg, 4.1 t.o., 18.7 ppg
Keshad Johnson:
35.7 mpg, 62.5 fg%, 32.9 3pt%, 71.2 ft%, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.3 bpg, 1.9 t.o., 22.2 ppg
Isaiah Stevens:
38.09 mpg, 55.4 fg%, 30.3 3p%, 90.9 ft%, 3.1 rpg, 9.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 3.7 t.o., 13.3 ppg
Josh Christopher:
37.3 mpg, 56.8 fg%, 29.9 3pt%, 73.8 ft%, 6.0 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.6 bpg, 3.2 t.o, 19.2 ppg
Solid observation
stevens looks like natural pg.current roster void of pg,ty and rozier not pgs,terry also playing bad.one thing we tend to forget is how good dru looked.if that dude can ever stay healthy we might have our pg of the future.and between him and a stronger ware next year they might put as a top 6 team w/o any additions coming from draft or fa
Bring up Isaiah Stevens.
Our offense is a clown show.
Even Ringling bros wouldn’t book these guys.
Giving Stevens a run can’t possibly make our team any worse.
Bring him up.
we are really worse than our record we get the benefit of playing atl orl wash charl,any other division your looking at least 10 games under 500
If we were in the West, we just might be in the Cooper Flagg conversation.
If Heat miss the playin entirely, what first rd picks do they have? Inside top 10?
Since 16 teams make the playoffs, that leaves us no worse than 14. 7 teams in the league will definitely be worse than us (wizards, Hornets, Raptors, Sixers, Nets, jazz, pelicans). They would have the first 7 picks (not counting if a pick was traded to another team). Win loss record would determine the remaining order. If the season ended today and if my calculations are correct, we would have pick #11 (as of today, we have a slightly better record than blazers, Spurs, and bulls, so they would get #s 8,9,10). In this scenario, if the Warriors lost in the play-in, we would also get #13. That would be quite a bonus!!
Since all four Western Conference play-in teams will likely have winning records, the two losers will likely receive the #13 and #14 (lottery) picks.
Scenario #1:
If Miami makes the play-in round round but does not advance to the playoffs, it will likely receive either the 11th or 12th (lottery)_pick, depending on the record of the other Eastern Conference team that is eliminated.
Scenario #2:
If Miami advances to the playoffs, it’s pick will convey to OKC.
Scenario #3:
Golden State is currently in 9th place in the West and may likely finish somewhere between #6-#10. If they make the playoffs, a total of 8-10 NBA teams will likely finish with better records than the Warriors. That would leave Golden State’s draft pick somewhere in the #19 – #21 range, which would convey to Miami.
Scenario #4:
If Golden State makes the play-in round but fails to advance to the playoffs, Miami would receive their #13 or #14 (lottery) pick.
Scenario #5:
If Golden State does not qualify for the play-in round, it will receive a lottery pick. There are currently 10 teams in the league with worse records than Golden State. Therefore, they would likely receive an 11th – 14th lottery pick. A pick lower than #10 would convey to Miami.
Best case scenario:
Miami receives two lottery picks.
Next best scenario:
Miami receives it’s own lottery pick and Golden State’s #19 – #21 pick.
Third best scenario:
Miami conveys it pick to OKC and Golden State conveys it’s #19 -#21 pick to Miami.
Worse case scenario:
Miami conveys it’s pick to OKC and Golden State keeps it’s pick.
I know which outcome I’m rooting for. How about you?
Our best case, as above, would be getting #s 11 and 13. And, hey, let’s dream big and hope our #11 overcomes infinitesimal odds and we get Flagg. But we don’t want that to happen with the Warriors pick.
Nice! Very nice explanation 😃
Thanks Manila. I’m anal that way. 😬
Thanks RC! But Heat would have a chance on that top pick even if its 1% lol
What if???!!
Yes, a person can dream 🙂
I am not surprised, I saw it coming a couple of seasons ago. The Chicken have come to roost.
I predicted that the Kyle trade was a bad idea and that Miami was going to pay for it. My view was a very unpopular position. My final response to my critics was, cycle back to me at the end of the season.
Fast forward couple of years later:
With Kyle, Miami had 2 ECF appearances and 1 NBA Finals appearance.
Without Kyle, Miami Heat is looking at the prospect of 3 consecutive play-in appearances.
I am not one to beat my chest and say, I told you so.
In my time in Africa decades ago, I learnt of a saying that says ” What the elder sees sitting down, the youth will not see it standing on a mountain top.” My critics have been wrong and I right.
I am displeased that each paragraph begins with an “I”. It is an uncomfortable coincidence that it is so.
u might be on to something there.a steadying experienced player is worth alot.he was slow as sht coulndt shoot for sht but his leadership savvy and experience might have been missed by our team.more than we realize
Last year, Miami’s record after 56 games was 31-25.
The Heat went 15-11 the rest of the way and ended the season 46-36 and in 8th place, 7 games ahead of ninth place Chicago (39-43) and 10 games ahead of 10th place Atlanta (36-46).This year, Miami’s record after 56 games is 26-30.
The team is tied with Atlanta (27-31) for 8th place, 1.5 games behind 7th place Orlando (29-30) and 5 games behind 6th place Detroit (32-26).
The team is 4 games ahead of 10th place Chicago (23-35) and 5.5 games ahead of 11th place Brooklyn (21-36).
In order to end the season with the same record as last year (46-36), the Heat would need to go 20-6 the rest of the way. That is not going to happen!
In order to drop out of the play-in round entirely, Miami would need to go 13-13 the rest of the season and Brooklyn would need to go 19-6. That is also not going to happen.
If Miami finishes in 7th or 8th place, they will need to win one game in the play-in round in order to make the playoffs. If they finish 9th or 10th, they will need to win 2 games.All things considered,
Spo should experiment with different line-ups and play the younger players the rest of the season in order to see what they have to offer and allow them to acquire experience.
Ideally, Miami will get into the play-in round but not make it to the playoffs. By doing so, it will get to keep it’s first round pick, rather than forfeit it to asset rich OKC.
I’m all for them tanking if they go 0-26 id be happy as hell. Afterwards like I had stated on previous post, this organization as a whole is in need of an overhaul. Ownership should consider selling since you don’t want to spend money. Go live your best life and travel the world or do whatever you wanna do Mickey Arison but owning an nba team is not one of them things anymore. Pat Riley…….go into the sunset gracefully please, I feel you are living in the past and have not yet caught up with the times, I can tell through the players you pick you in some way are living vicariously through (herro, Duncan, jjj, pelle etc). It’s been a hell of a ride but it’s over and tbh the same guy who knew it was over for the lakers and knew when to leave the Knicks……you have severely over welcomed your stay hear with the heat, again you are the godfather and your name etched is in stone. Spoelstra please for the love of god be the new Pat Riley if it’s a copycat league Copy what Steven’s did in Boston, it is no shame in what Steven’s did up there now look at the results!! The rotations rotations rotations………..as with pat its been a hell of a ride and also like pat your name is etched in stone. Sorry for the rant guys
Ranting is what a lot of us do here. I do my share of it at home with this team. Another blown lead? Sitting a player who is hot right now? Benching your best rim protector? And so on. But, for the record, Arison spends more than 20 out of the 30 teams.
Right now I’m accepting that we’re not a playoff team, should let the young bucks roam free, on our way to possibly 2 draft picks.
AMEN!