There are 26 games left in the 2024-25 season, and the Miami Heat has been trapped in quicksand for practically the entire season.
On Monday, they hit a new low. They lost 98-86 in the final game of a five-game road trip to the Atlanta Hawks, shooting just 32.1 percent from the floor and 7-of-40 from 3-point range, their third-worst 3-point shooting game (min. 30 3PA) in franchise history.
It was their least efficient offensive performance of the season and they dropped to four games below .500 — 26-30 — for the first time this season. It’s now time to face reality, one everyone was hoping to avoid for a third straight campaign.
Miami Heat will likely be play-in team for third-straight season:
As it stands right now, after Monday’s loss, the Miami Heat is tied with the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference despite being one game better in the loss column.
Both teams are four games ahead of the Chicago Bulls (23-35) while resting 1.5 games back of the beleaguered Orlando Magic (29-30).
The issue is that the Heat is five games back of the surging Detroit Pistons, the No. 6 seed in the East. Detroit, led by first-year All-Star Cade Cunningham, has won seven straight and climbed to 32-26 on Monday.
With or without Jimmy Butler, Miami’s been a .500 team each of the last three seasons. It owns the seventh-easiest schedule for the rest of the season (solely based on opp. win pct.), but they are running out of time to make up five games against a Pistons squad playing their best basketball.
It’s also not likely that they fall below the Brooklyn Nets–who are 5.5 games back–unless they get very hot and the Heat completely bottom out. The latter is more likely than the former.
Thus, the likelihood, barring something drastic, is that you will have to circle April 15-18 on your calendar for the third straight year. I guess you can pencil in the Bulls, Hawks and Heat to fight for at least one playoff spot each year, eh?
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I am not surprised, I saw it coming a couple of seasons ago. The Chicken have come to roost.
I predicted that the Kyle trade was a bad idea and that Miami was going to pay for it. My view was a very unpopular position. My final response to my critics was, cycle back to me at the end of the season.
Fast forward couple of years later:
With Kyle, Miami had 2 ECF appearances and 1 NBA Finals appearance.
Without Kyle, Miami Heat is looking at the prospect of 3 consecutive play-in appearances.
I am not one to beat my chest and say, I told you so.
In my time in Africa decades ago, I learnt of a saying that says ” What the elder sees sitting down, the youth will not see it standing on a mountain top.” My critics have been wrong and I right.
I am displeased that each paragraph begins with an “I”. It is an uncomfortable coincidence that it is so.
Last year, Miami’s record after 56 games was 31-25.
The Heat went 15-11 the rest of the way and ended the season 46-36 and in 8th place, 7 games ahead of ninth place Chicago (39-43) and 10 games ahead of 10th place Atlanta (36-46).This year, Miami’s record after 56 games is 26-30.
The team is tied with Atlanta (27-31) for 8th place, 1.5 games behind 7th place Orlando (29-30) and 5 games behind 6th place Detroit (32-26).
The team is 4 games ahead of 10th place Chicago (23-35) and 5.5 games ahead of 11th place Brooklyn (21-36).
In order to end the season with the same record as last year (46-36), the Heat would need to go 20-6 the rest of the way. That is not going to happen!
In order to drop out of the play-in round entirely, Miami would need to go 13-13 the rest of the season and Brooklyn would need to go 19-6. That is also not going to happen.
If Miami finishes in 7th or 8th place, they will need to win one game in the play-in round in order to make the playoffs. If they finish 9th or 10th, they will need to win 2 games.All things considered,
Spo should experiment with different line-ups and play the younger players the rest of the season in order to see what they have to offer and allow them to acquire experience.
Ideally, Miami will get into the play-in round but not make it to the playoffs. By doing so, it will get to keep it’s first round pick, rather than forfeit it to asset rich OKC.
Right now I’m accepting that we’re not a playoff team, should let the young bucks roam free, on our way to possibly 2 draft picks.
AMEN!