It was obvious the Miami Heat would have a drastically different look once they finally traded Jimmy Butler to the Warriors on February 5. The move signaled a shift in direction both on and off the court, and the early returns haven’t been promising.
Offense Lacking a Focal Point
The Heat’s offense currently ranks 23rd in the NBA with a 110.9 offensive rating since Butler’s last game on January 21. It’s no surprise, but without Jimmy, Miami’s free throw rate is down to 0.20, ball movement has slowed to a crawl (although that’s been an issue for a long time), and clean looks are simply more challenging to come by.
Tyler Herro is taking on a heavier scoring load, averaging 24.6 points per game since the trade, but his true shooting percentage has dropped to 55.0%, and his playmaking has taken a hit—his assists per game have decreased despite increased usage. He’s often forced into tough shots late in the clock, and opposing defenses have been quick to load up on him.
Andrew Wiggins has shown flashes, including a 22-point, 5-assist night recently, but he’s also struggled with efficiency overall. He’s shooting 42.1% from the field and 30.6% from three since joining Miami, and his turnover rate has been problematic, especially in transition.
Davion Mitchell has taken on a larger role and provided moments of steady perimeter defense, but he’s not a high-level facilitator, and his offensive impact remains limited. After taking on the starting role after the trade, he has since been shifted back to the bench.
Bam and Herro, But Not Quite Enough
Bam Adebayo has seen his usage rise since the trade, now at 26.5%, but his scoring efficiency has dipped. He’s averaging just 16.9 points on 55.3% true shooting post-trade and hasn’t consistently filled the void left by Butler in late-game situations. He’s still a high-level defender and passer for a big, but his increased offensive burden has come with diminishing returns.
The duo of Herro and Bam is talented, but without Butler, the Heat are missing a go-to option late in games—and that has become clearer with each loss.
Defense Slipping Too
Once a hallmark of Heat Culture, their defensive rating has now dropped to 112.7. The Heat are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 38% from deep, and their opponent eFG% over the last 10 games is 57.9%. Wiggins has offered some resistance, but Butler’s absence is evident—especially in clutch moments, where the Heat have a -15.3 Net Rating, a dismal 93 Offensive Rating, and a 134 Defensive Rating—one of the worst clutch-time profiles in the league, according to Basketball-Reference.
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The numbers suggest a team in transition—and not the smooth kind. With playoff hopes dimming, the question becomes: Is another rotational move coming to somehow turn the tide, or does Heat Nation have to accept that this is the start of a longer rebuild?
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We need to make the playoffs, if not then the 1st round picks we gave the thunder n charlotte become unprotected. Then again I don’t see use being this bad again. We’ll get a star next year or year after for sure.
What is lacking is ball handling, clutch play in closing minutes, calming influence on the floor, the ability to draw fouls and slow things down, when needed, veteran leadership and confidence. The team needs an Alpha Male who can provide what Butler did. Until the team gets one, it will continue to struggle. Bam, Herro and Wiggins make a good supporting cast, but none is a true team leader.
i believe bam has the ability but he doesnt have the dawg in him..hes just happy to get his 19 and 10 and those big checks.
Anybody remember sometime last season when guys where jubilating that Heat crossed the 0.5 mark. I sounded a warning that things were not looking good. Am I surprised at the state of things now? Obviously NO. I saw it coming.
Heat were bad in regular season for past 3 years.
Lowry’s abscence created a locker room vacuum, that has not been filled. It affected notably Caleb, Duncan and Love. There is a reason Jimmy said he lost his happiness of coming to the court. A statement many over looked. The free fall started with Lowry leaving not with Jimmy. The excitement of Rozier acquisition blinded all to that leadership vacuum. There are some things money can not buy.
Lowry was a non factor long before gone. But true, he was still better then Rosier is now.
The team’s drop in production started when Lowry’s production dropped. Butler was the one who urged Riley to bring him in. Lowry’s failure is on him.
We were glad to be getting a known quantity in Rozier (who was scoring 23.2 ppg) in Charlotte. How could any of us know his performance level would drop to 16.4 ppg the rest of the 2024 season and drop again to 11.2 ppg this year (which is lower than his career average of 14.0)?
At the time of Rozier’s acquisition, there was no leadership vacuum. Butler was still under contract.
Your arguments are self defeating.
As per your accounts both Lowry and Rozier’s averages have declined over the years with their new teams but your selective thinking attributes Lowry’s drop to his diminished skills but when it comes to Rozier you question how could any one know his performance will drop. Your bias is clearly obvious. I caution you try and be consistent in your analysis. The same measure you use to weigh Lowry should apply to Rozier, bro.
lowry was just out of shape and old .bad signing.terry s problem prob gambling indictment on him.i was excited for both signings but was wrong on both.pat also
Yup. The only difference is that Pat gets paid whether he makes good decisions or bad ones. Over the past few years, he’s made several bad ones.
“Your bias is clearly obvious. I caution you try and be consistent in your analysis. The same measure you use to weigh Lowry should apply to Rozier, bro.”
Uh, Rozier was 29 when Miami brought him in last year with many projected miles and seasons yet to go. His scoring trajectory was on the upswing from 19.3 ppg in 2021-22 to 21.1 ppg in 2022-23 to 23.2 ppg in 2023-24 before being traded to Miami. He turned 31 yesterday.
Lowry was 35 when he was traded to the Heat and turned 36 his first year in Miami. His stats had dropped before he was traded to Miami, while he was in Miami, continued to do so after he was traded to Charlotte and since then with Philadelphia (it’s down to 4.0 ppg in 2024-2025). What you call bias, I call F-A-C-T-S. FYI, during his last two years with Toronto he scored 19.4 ppg and 17.2 ppg, (followed by 13.4 ppg, 11.2 ppg and 8.2 ppg with Miami). His “drop to his diminished skills” as you call it was due to his advanced age. BTW, he turns 39 in a week (March 25, 2025).
Get your facts together Mr. A, then we can have an intelligent debate/ informed conversation. If that happens, please have your people call my people. We can do lunch.
‘We were glad to be getting’ …wrong there. Not everyone, at least it is on records that I consistently did not believe that Rozier was the answer. He has not moved the needle you were excited about he would move. I listed the so many problems that the Heat had and said at the time that Rozier was not going to change all that, and he did not but be gracious to say you were wrong.
It’s been hard on the team and the fans. When we lost to the Bulls and Hornets it became clear how many flaws Jimmy had been covering up. You don’t lose eight in a row, lately losing by blowouts to teams without their best players. In fact, the other teams know they can beat us and so they get their stars some rest. You can’t assess this level of results without coming to the conclusion that we have a serious talent deficit.
Whether we like it or not, a major rebuild is going to happen because it has to.
We are a proud team, with proud fans and a great tradition, so this isn’t easy to accept. But, every team in sports with caps will go thru good times and bad even when they are run well. It’s our time to lose and it will take some time to get our mojo back. We have a long way to go and that is why we need the best leadership, the best contract negotiating, the best talent evaluators we can get.
Or it will just take longer. In the cap era, intelligently run organizations will experience lean times. But, poorly run organizations may never experience the good times.
whats the name of our next d wade only time will tell
Bingo! The key is well run teams will flourish and poorly run teams will struggle. Now is the time when we find out exactly which one Miami is. Time for Riley to earn his money or retire. There is no more room for errors. The fans won’t tolerate it!
Miami has a lot of players, which had been important part of their teams playing in finals,
like Herro, Bam, Wiggins, Dunc and Love. All but Love are in their best years and mostly healthy.
Those are not bad players.
We have a good young player in Ware, and two or three more, none of them are worse then what other teams have.
And we have a bunch or vets, which are at least on league average quality in their roles.
Not to mention interesting players in G league.
This team s should be anywhere between 3-8 placed in the weak east, with positive win score, because bellow are injuries derailed teams and tankers.
So, this is not the best lineup in the world, but it is a decent one. There is no reason to score only 90 points every night and get overruned for 30 points.
Dark times indeed.
u look at the 2 best players on the other teams and compare them to ty and bam.u are a playin team do the math.
name a pair of players in Atlanta , Chicago, Orlando, Detroit, NY better then those two. All those teams are currently better then us.
ny brunson towns that was ez orl banchero f wagner better det cade duran close chi giddy white close
I think he was referring to teams like Cleveland, Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, OKC, Denver, Golden State, Lakers, San Antonio, Memphis, Minnesota etc.
This goes way beyond Jimmy. I thought it was premature to trade away Lowry when the Heat did. Maybe after that season but not when the Heat did. I stood alone. Many thought Lowry was a burst, so he had to go. It has been free fall since then as I predicted then.
‘What elders see coming while sitting , the youth cannot see it standing on the mountain top’ .
Words of our fore fathers.
u might be right about that.to a degree lowry didnt wow u but he brought leadership and a knowing how to play the game to the table.only thing his #s were terrible and he moved as slow as a turtle.so the free fall started when jimmy stopped caring and trying just look out west to the warriors and look at the turtle in phily what he has done
Besides health, talent, and coaching, the least forgotten factor great teams have is a sound locker room. With Lowry, the collegial locker room atmosphere transcended beyond that locker room, it was very palpable miles away. His abrupt leaving left a vacuum that affected so many. When he left, it definitely affected Caleb, Duncan, and Love. His leadership was infectious and has not been replicated. This is what the Heat is struggling with. Someone to infuse confidence in the team. Money can not buy it.
UD and now Love provide the veteran locker room leadership. What the team lacks is on the court leadership. Lowry was no longer able to provide that. That vacuum was left by Butler’s departure, not Lowry’s.
Concerning his numbers, Rozier his replacement was not better either with his early numbers. I made an observation that Rozier took away points from Bam and Ty(4 pts each) and added to Lowry’s 9 pts to get to his 17pts. The coaches may have noted. To confirm that, soon after Rozier was taken away as a starter with Bam and Ty, Ty and Bam’s averages dramatically shut up this season. Numbers are not often the best way to judge how a player affects the team, e.g Udonis Haslem. Unfortunately, numbers are what the fans and the buisness side of the game see. So, I can understand your not be impressed with Lowry’s numbers.
Lowry sucked soon after Miami traded for him and has sucked ever since. The Toronto Lowry of 2021 no longer existed. His scoring was down to 8.2 ppg when he was traded to Philly and his average is down to 4.0 this year. Butler screwed the team up by insisting that Riley sign him.
Lowry was good in his first season in Miami, okay-ish in the second season and bad in the third season. This season he averages 4! Ppg. He is 38. His career is over. He was a great player in his Toronto years. It was not premature to trade him when the Heat did, in my opinion we should have gotten rid of him way sooner. Getting Rozier at the time seemed like a great trade imho. It just didn’t work out. Perhaps his neck injury is to blame, I don’t know. Anything related to spine could be serious and maybe there’s something we don’t know. I just can’t believe he just forgot to play ball.
I will answer the headline’s question of what’s gone wrong? Everything!
not really rc u lose a player like quitter he just needs to be replaced by a player with quitters ability.as ive been saying all along next year ty and bam better not be your best players.they are b to c players and prob should be your 3rd and 4th best if u want jewelry.
Herro, Bam, Wiggins and Ware can be your 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th options if you have a two-way playing Alpha Male leading the team. Preferably, it would be someone who is a proven leader and a winner who can pass, score and defend. Finding that player is Riley’s job.