After the Phoenix Suns’ 11-point loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Miami Heat will officially own the 11th-best lottery odds ahead of this week’s play-in, where they control their own destiny.
Soon thereafter, however, the Golden State Warriors earned a spot in the play-in team themselves, losing 124-119 in overtime to the Los Angeles Clippers. They will face the Memphis Grizzlies inside Chase Center on Tuesday, but there is still a fascinating wrinkle linked to the Heat that’s still in play as a result of the Jimmy Butler trade.
Miami Heat can still earn two lottery picks, even if it’s a slight possibility:
When the Heat traded Butler to Golden State ahead of February’s deadline, Miami secured Golden State’s top-10 protected pick for the 2025 draft–which would become a top-10 protected 2026 pick if it did not convey this year.
Barring becoming the first team in NBA History to win two consecutive play-in games on the road, Miami possesses a 77.6 percent chance at securing the No. 11 pick ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft–with a 9.2 percent chance at making it inside the top-4 and a 13.0 percent chance at either Nos. 12 or 13.
However, should Golden State drop both of their play-in games to Memphis and Sacramento or Dallas, they would fall into the lottery with the 14th-best odds, which gives them a 97.6 percent chance at the No. 14 pick. Barring something unforeseen–such as Golden State’s pick falling into the top-4, which has a 2.4 percent chance of happening–should both teams flame out in the play-in, Miami would own two lottery picks.
How likely is Golden State losing two play-in games? Well, the odds aren’t very high. They would be at home for both games, and after today, are 22-5 with Butler, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry all active. Golden State is much better than either Sacramento or Dallas and there is a noticeable gap between them and Memphis.
You still have to play the games, though.
The best-case scenario for Miami is Capturing The Flagg at No. 1 overall while the Warriors drop both play-in games and the Heat secure the No. 14 pick. Conversely, as it relates to the draft, the worst-case is them is making it into the playoffs, Golden State losing and somehow lucking into the top-4–leaving the Heat empty-handed.
If the Warriors make the playoffs, their pick will be either 18, 19 or 20, by virtue of their tie in W-L with the Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks, whose picks defer to the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets, respectively.
Those picks will be determined at a later date.
***
This is a developing news story. Stay tuned for updates.
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!
nba is all about $$.do they want to see steph curry advance or a thug advance.gsw will beat memphis just on smarts.to many fn teams in playoffs.makes reg season anyway makes reg season inconsequential.i would prefer the division winners and 1 wc,this way jimmy and kawhi would be forced to play more games instead of vacation days.i wouldnt be surprised if we got bost lal very good for adam$ biz.
What is the schedule for the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament?
Tuesday, April 15
Wednesday, April 16
Friday, April 18
2 lottery picks would be an absolute dream scenario!!
A late lottery and a late teens/early 20’s pick ain’t bad either. Lots of players with potential to pick from this year or ammo to use for trade(s) for higher pick(s) or player upgrade(s).
True, but the possibility of getting #11 and #14 would be amazing. I don’t expect the Warriors to lose 2, but it’d be sweet on multiple levels.