As a result of the Phoenix Suns’ 109-98 loss to the Sacramento Kings Sunday, the Heat will officially have the 11th-best lottery odds ahead of Wednesday’s play-in game against the Chicago Bulls.
The Heat entered the afternoon with the 11th-best odds. With their 119-118 loss to the Washington Wizards to cap the regular season, they needed a Phoenix Suns win to have a chance at owning the 10th-best odds.
With the 11th-best odds, however, Miami has a:
- 0.4 percent chance of earning the 13th pick
- 12.6 percent chance of 12
- 77.6 percent chance of 11
- 9.4 percent chance of a top-4 pick
- 2.0 percent chance to #CaptureTheFlagg™ at No. 1 overall
This is all assuming its season prematurely ends in the play-in game. If the Heat win both games and make the playoffs, their 2025 NBA Draft pick will convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder and they will keep their 2026 pick.
Miami hasn’t picked higher than No. 11 since 2015, when they drafted Justise Winslow No. 10 overall. It has typically struck gold in the middle of the first round, drafting Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware between 13-15.
Assuming it sticks at No. 11, one could assume the Heat aim to take a guard or wing with their first pick. Within range, they could potentially nab Kasparas Jakucionis, Jeremiah Fears, Jase Richardson or Liam McNeeley, among others.
As we have previously gone over, zero No. 10 seeds in NBA History have won two play-in games to make the postseason. They are 2-6 in those games since the 7-10 format was implemented at the start of the 2020-21 season.
We will see if the Heat can buck that trend, though they will have an uphill battle against the Chicago Bulls, who is 3-0 against Miami this season, and either the Orlando Magic or Atlanta Hawks. Can Miami overcome the odds?
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Unless I am not understanding something about tiebreakers, I disagree with Matt. If Phoenix had won, we would have the same record, 37-45. The first tiebreaker is head to head competition and we split the series with them 1-1. The second tiebreaker, according to what I read is division and conference record, and they have a worse records in them than we do and therefore, they would still get the #10 pick while we get the #11.
Speaking of the suns, budenholzer just got fired. I ain’t surprised either.
this old coach retreads keep getting jobs, thibodeaux vogel this clown let some youngens coach
The Warriors lost to the Clippers and dropped to 7th place/play-in round. If they make the playoffs, they will face either Houston or OKC (and Miami will receive either their #19 or #20 pick). If they lose in the play-ins, Miami gets either their #17 or #18 pick.
(Note: The Warriors were tied for 9th place when Butler arrived and was a play-in team. They finished the regular season in 7th place and are still a play-in team).
Miami has the 20th best record in the NBA. If they are eliminated in the play-in round (by losing their first game vs Chicago or by winning against Chicago and losing to the Atlanta vs Orlando loser in a second game) they will get the #11 (lottery) pick. If they make the playoffs, OKC will get the Heat’s (probably #15 or #16) pick and Miami will face Cleveland in the first round.
(Note: Miami was in 7th place when Butler left and was a play-in team. They finished the regular season in 10th place and are still a play-in team).
last time i checked they were 22 4 with quitter.quitter just knows how to play the game besides all his great attributes.heckuva player seemed so happy here then everything went south.the way it ended for him here was embarassing for his legacy.character does factor in the way we look at athletes.i look at him as a pos.hope gsw loses in playin
23-8 since the trade but only moved up 2 places. Still just a play-in team with 3 aging stars and no pick until 2026. I would prefer Miami’s situation any day.
under 500 prob not even a playin team.saved their season.hope they lose whoever they play.depends how long steph plays as long as they have steph they are better than us
and the heats record since jimmy departed.prefer our situation not sure about that..when steph retires like our situation.until then they are better
If we had Wiggins, Mitchell, Slo-Mo, Herro, Bam, Ware, Burks from the beginning of the season, we’d be every bit as good as them. You yourself specifically said, more than once, that this team could beat any team not named OKC. Have you changed your tune yet again?
we’d have a chance rc but id favor gsw over us they have a generational player and a guy that takes mediocrie teams to good teams.bam and ty cant sniff steph and jimmys jock strap.steph and jimmys bball iq off the charts.i think with a healthy team we can make it hard on teams in a playoff series.more than likely a loss against the real good teams we dont have a ss to bring us home,get one of them we take our team to another level
wiggins maybe a top 50 player,in the pecking order of pgs from 1-32 where do u put dav prob 20-25.slo mo maybe a top 150 player,all the players in nba have talent these are the top500 players in a world of billions.
They have Kuminga who they relegated to the bench. He was a DNP coach’s decision. Dude will be a free agent this year and I guarantee you he doesn’t want to return to Warriors. They should have traded him to Heat with filler and kept Wiggins. Oh well.
I do not consider the Warriors an elite team this season. More like a second tier team. So if we can’t even beat a second tier team, what’s the point?
from feb 13- march 15th lost 1 game
Wowee. 8 out of the 12 wins they had in that stretch were under 500 teams. Dynasty! And 13 of their last 21 wins were also against below 500 teams.
Not. An. Elite. Team.
Nice run. Doesn’t mean crap. They’re still a play-in team now. Hope they lose twice. We’ll get a higher pick. Plus, they ain’t gettin any younger and they play in the “Wild Wild West.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auhwI00iKWg
Everyone forgets about Keshad Johnson if he had only been given a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation.
I’ve agreed with that since summer league. Unfortunately, they didn’t give him the opportunity.
You, heat and a couple of others have agreed about his potential and questioned why he wasn’t being used. There wasn’t a logical answer after it became apparent that Jaquez wasn’t hitting his 3’s, Highsmith was not a scorer, Jovic couldn’t stay healthy, Love couldn’t stay active, Rozier was having a totally miserable year, Robinson’s defense was a liability late in games (*crunch time) etc.
If Miami’s management loses him because he decides to walk away as a free agent after next season, they have no one to blame but themselves.
is it to late to put him on giddey wed night nobody else can slow giddey down
I sincerely doubt he gets much time on the court unless it’s a blowout.
Kind of late now. He does not have enough experience under his belt to compete under these pressure packed circumstances.
Personally, I believe if Johnson had been given an opportunity from the beginning to compete for a job and allowed to play when Rozier, Jovic, Jaquez, Robinson, Highsmith, Love etc. weren’t doing well, he would have eventually found his way into the rotation and excelled.
And another – if they put him in and he did poorly: “no wonder he never played, he’s just a scrub.”
Yes, but what I’m saying is there are some who judge a player on a very small sample size. I consider that fool’s gold. It’s why I wouldn’t give up on Herro early on, or Jovic, Jaquez, Pelle, and others.
sometimes u have to make a prediction based on what youve seen so far on the tube .thats part of sports .sometimes your right sometimes your hfl.one thing im right about is 55 is one of the worse def players ive seen in a long time lol.right or hfl rc.6 years 90million times hes been burnt,he needs a keshad body and oladipos instincts infused in him then .we will call him the 6 million dollar man.herro showed from day 1 he was good just never this consistent.pelle im projecting at best a 10th guy on a team.jjj unfort his game is more suited for one on one not team ball.shnozic i got as an 8 type player.youngens need to be upgraded in this draft.need 2 wayers with some hops
As I have consistently said, judging any player, particularly a young player, on a small sample size, despite what you were seeing in the moment, is fool’s gold. As for Herro, he was always consistent offensively, a three level scorer from the beginning. You didn’t say that maybe he will never be an all-star, you said that he will definitely NEVER be an all-star. He has averaged better than 20 points a game for four years in a row now. He has been a better 3 point shooter than Booker for his career. The only real improvement he needed to make was his defense.
As far as Jovic, if he is a number 8 player on a team and was the 27th pick, he deserves a lot of credit. As does management.
If Pelle tops out at a number 10 player (I think he’ll do better) as a lower second round pick, Riley is doing a great job!
I agree. Miami should fully vet players on rookie contracts before making final decisions about whether or not they are keepers.
spo scratcher sun.one of many ova da years.pats step son has keys to the car.daddy will never take them away
Never forgot about him, I wanted him to get pt over pelle, but draft picks usually take top priority over undrafted/gleaguers. I seen keshad up close at pat Riley court and his athleticism and shooting impressed me. He also would of made that dunk that Josh blew.
Though GSW is still in the play in tournament they were in 10th place and not 9TH place before Jimmy joined them.
Oops. I based it on February 7th standings not 8th. Either way, both are play-in teams despite all the hoopla about messiah Butler in SF.
Not too fast. Just remember that you once thought Rozier was the 2nd coming of the messiah.
I don’t think anyone said that, only that he could be a solid addition to the team. Unfortunately, he wasn’t. Eric Reid spoke at length during the game that he couldn’t recall another example of a good player having such a bad season.
jjj
Not even close. Jaquez did not, does not, have the long history of being a solid player like Rozier. Jaquez is in his second season. Huge difference.
Figuratively, he alluded to that. I remember correctly he pushed for Rozier trade as fiercely as he could. I remember a comment by him that anyone saying to the contrary in his words ” was in denial”. In response, I posted fixes that the Heat needed (amongst which were the Heat needed to improve their perimeter defense, the Heat needed to get bigger as the League was going away from small ball, needed another big to help take away the burden from Bam, some catch and shoot wing players with defensive skills, etc) and that Rozier was not the sole answer.
I thought trading washed up Lowry for “Scary Terry” (whose stats were 23.2 ppg, 6.6 apg and 3.9 rpg at the time) which along with Herro, Butler and Bam, gave Miami four 20 ppg players. Didn’t you feel positive about the trade at the time too?
Who could have predicted that his game would go completely to hell in one year. I may be wrong, but I think the stress of having a pending federal investigation must be impacting his physical and mental health.
As opposed to you, me, and many others, Alien was actually against the trade from the beginning. He and I disagreed on it pretty strongly at the time.
Tacitly, you “graciously” and “magnanimously” acknowledged Jimmy’s impact since joining GSW by stating the obvious statistics. As they. say statistics do not lie.
GSW WITHOUT Jimmy.
10th position on the western conference.
GSW 25-26.
Summary: A loosing record without Jimmy.
GSW WITH Jimmy.
7th position on the Western conference.
GSW 23-8 .
Summary: A winning record with Jmmy.
Miami WITH Jimmy.
7th position.
24-5
Summary: A winning record with Jimmy.
Miami WITHOUT Jimmy
10th position.
24-33.
Summary: A loosing record without Jimmy.
Agreeable, both are in play in tournaments, so you may argue that Jimmy had no significant impact on GSW. However, the 7th position (GSW) is more desirable than a 10th position (Heat). If you have any doubt, ask the Heat organization who threw in every personnel at her disposal to get the 9th seed by playing Tyler Herro, Bam and Wiggins (who had sat out as many as 6 games before the 82nd and 83rd game of the season. That is how much stakes Miami put into getting the 9th position not to talk of the 7th position which GSW currently has. When the 9th position was not achievable, all 3 players were rested on the last and final game of the season.
To juggle your memory. I want TO repeat past statements from me regarding Jimmy and Rozier.
On Jimmy: I said where ever he goes to, he will be happy and make an impact on any team he goes to.
On Rozier: I said that the Heat has, (to be grammatically correct at the time ) numerous issues which a point Guard alone will NOT fix and I did not see how Rozier was going to be a difference maker.
Today, both statements by me on Jimmy and Rozier are true and sealed. You can not change the outcomes.
You seem to be on a journey of life long personal grudge and vendetta against Jimmy. It is between you and Jimmy and I do not wish to be part of it. Good luck to that mission. However, I will not sit by and watch misrepresentation be applied.
You may have the last word.
My bad. If the Warriors lose twice in the play-in round, they would likely end up with the 14th lottery pick. They would have a very small chance that their lottery ball might end up as a top 4 pick. If that happens, Golden State would keep their top 10 protected pick and send their 2026 unprotected pick to Miami.