The Miami Heat, who concluded the regular season as the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference, travel to The Windy City to face the Chicago Bulls in the play-in Wednesday evening with their season on the line. What are our three keys to a Heat win? Let’s examine!
1. Find ways to slow the pace down:
Wednesday’s do-or-die battle features two teams on opposite ends in pace. The Bulls operate at the second-fastest adjusted pace in the NBA, according to Dunks and Threes; the Heat, on the other hand, are the fourth-slowest team.
Postseason basketball is typically played in the halfcourt. That doesn’t mean the Bulls won’t try to seek every advantage imaginable before the Heat set their defense. Miami has to find a way to slow it down. In their three regular-season matchups, Chicago outscored the Heat by seven, three and nine points in transition, respectively. That made a difference.
Slow the game down. Get to the free-throw line. Wear Chicago down in the halfcourt. Miami’s transition defense was the league’s fifth-worst unit this year, according to Cleaning The Glass. Making shots would obviously go a long way, but the Bulls will still push off makes. Miami can’t let that happen and expect to win.
2. Win the 3-point battle:
Both teams are shooting exactly 36.7 percent from 3-point range on the season. However, the Bulls sport the fourth-highest 3-point rate while the Heat own the 12th-highest. Miami was outscored from deep in two of its three meetings this season.
In games where it loses the 3-point battle by at least one, it’s 8-32. When the Heat win the 3-point battle, it’s 28-13. Chicago’s defense is a little stingier at allowing long-range attempts, but the Heat can’t be afraid to let it fly Wednesday.
3. Find a way to find a way if it gets tight:
I did a longer post on this earlier in the week, but we all know by now that the Heat have been a disaster in the clutch this season. They have blown 22 double-digit leads and 21 fourth-quarter leads this season–both NBA-mosts.
Miami is no stranger to clutch games, but they will need to find a way to find a way if the game gets tight and the Bulls–one of the best clutch teams in the NBA–punch them in the mouth. Show some resiliency with the season on the line. Don’t fold. If the Heat do, they can kiss their season goodbye.
Prediction: Bulls 111, Heat 107
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Now we are in a predicament. How are going to root in the Atlanta game?
Lets go draft picks! 😁😜
Lol!
On April 9, 2025, Chicago beat Miami 119-111. The Bulls outrebounded the Heat 46-39, had 7 blocks vs 3 and hit 100% of their free throws (13 -13), while the Heat shot 64.7% (11-17).
The 5 Chicago starters played a total of 182 minutes (36.4 per player avg)
Starters played 34-40 minutes
The 5 Miami starters played a total of 139 minutes (27.8 minutes per player avg)
Herro played 36 minutes, Bam played 35 minutes, Wiggins played 27 minutes, Ware played 25 minutes and Burks played 16 minutes.
The 5 Chicago bench players logged 58 minutes total (11.6 minutes per player).
The 4 Miami players logged 101 minutes (25.2 minutes per player).
All 5 Chicago starters scored in double figures.
4 of the 5 Miami starters scored in double figures (Burks scored 7 points)
None of the Chicago reserves scored in double figures
1 of the Miami reserves scored in double figures (Mitchell scored 17 points)
Solution(s):
1) Start Mitchell instead of Burkes
2) Play starters 30-35 minutes each
3) Use 4 bench players for limited (10-15) minutes each
If any of the reserves are ineffective, replace
4) Start Ware on Vucevic, Bam on Buzelis, Wiggins on Giddey, Herro on Huerter and Mitchell on White. Adjust accordingly as game progresses.
5) Use Mitchell and Wiggins in point of attack defense on Giddey and White.
6) Fast break as much as possible and defend the fast break to the extent possible.
7) Make hitting the offensive boards a priority
Spo don’t listen to this 😅
I think the main thing they gotta do is score more points.
While allowing fewer points.