The Miami Heat look to make history by becoming the first team to win two play-in games on the road. It will be an uphill battle, however, beginning with the feisty Chicago Bulls Wednesday inside United Center.
For more on that game, click here! Anyway, since it’s the play-in, the best bet column returns! I don’t know what my record is but it probably isn’t good. I’m not a good gambler, but as always, we’re giving it another crack at it!
What are my best bets ahead of Wednesday’s play-in game?! Let’s dive into it below!
(Note: All odds are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook!)
Davion Mitchell o5.5 assists (-125):
Davion Mitchell has been a breath of fresh air for the Heat, so much so that he’s been one of Erik Spoelstra’s most trusted players in the rotation, averaging 31.6 minutes per game. Mitchell’s also been one of the Heat’s best playmakers.
Wednesday should be a pace-up game for the Heat, who are facing a Bulls team ranked No. 2 in the NBA in pace. Miami will have to find a way to slow the Bulls down, but I’m expecting an uptick in possessions. The Bulls own 8th-highest assist percentage allowed with the most assists allowed to opposing point guards.
In Miami’s most recent matchup against Chicago, Mitchell finished with eight assists (14 potential) in 36 minutes. He’s reached 10 potential assists in seven of his last 10 games that he played 35-plus minutes. And in games when he’s tallied 10 potentials, he’s eclipsed 5.5 assists in eight of his last 10 and in 11 of his last 13. I love this spot for him.
Josh Giddey o18.5 rebounds + assists (-132):
Giddey crushed the Heat in their most recent matchup, logging a 28-point, 16-rebound, 11-assist triple-double on 11-of-19 shooting in 40 minutes. I don’t know if I’m expecting that kind of production, but he’s averaged 20-10-10 over his last 15 games, leading Chicago to a 11-4 record in those games.
In a do-or-die game, I’m expecting him to see at least 37-38 minutes–perhaps more. In games where he’s logged at least 37 minutes this season, he’s averaging 14.3 potential assists and 17 rebound chances. He totaled 40 combined potentials (21 assist, 19 rebound) against the Heat in his last meeting, and when Giddey’s recorded at least 13 potential assists and 16 rebound chances, he’s averaging 23.3 REB+AST this season (6/8 hit rate). I’ll eat the price here against a Heat defense that allows the 10th-most REB+AST to opposing PGs.
Tyler Herro o24.5 points (-118):
Miami is going to need a Herro if they want to live to see another day. Herro has been the Heat’s most dynamic scorer this season, and one of their most important players in this matchup for a reason. Miami’s first-time All-Star has eclipsed this point total in seven of his last 10 games–including a 30-point effort last week against the Bulls.
Over that span, he’s averaging 18.2 field goal attempts per game. The Bulls allow the second-most shot attempts for lead guards in the NBA. Herro hoisted 26 shots in their most recent meeting, and he’s eclipsed the 25-point mark in eight of his last 10 and in 14 of his last 18 games when he chucks 20-plus shots. While Chicago’s frenetic defense will do everything it can to slow Herro down, he’s been the Heat’s most reliable shot creator this season. Expect him to be heavily involved, as always.
Let It Fly SGP (+776):
- Andrew Wiggins 15+ points
- Alec Burks 2+ made 3-pointers
- Coby White 3+ made 3-pointers
- Josh Giddey 20+ points
Let’s have a Wednesday!
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