Hanifan: 10 things I was wrong about with the 2024-25 Miami Heat

We are over one week removed from the end of the 2024-25 Miami Heat season. Obviously, a lot of us say a lot about our thoughts on the organization, whether it’s the players, coaches, front office, etc.

As a man of integrity, I believe in holding myself accountable–and I was admittedly wrong a lot this year. Accountability in this industry is lacking, but that’s a conversation for another day. I don’t care about being wrong as much as I care about being honest and objective. Learning from our own mistakes–as well as other people’s mistakes–is very important.

Now, here are 10 things I completely whiffed on regarding the 2024-25 Miami Heat.

Kel’el Ware wouldn’t start full-time as a rookie (barring injury):

After months of behind-the-scenes development, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra opted to play Kel’el Ware and Bam Adebayo alongside each other in a Jan. 19 meeting against San Antonio. The duo outscored the Spurs by 23 points in 13 minutes, and Spoelstra obviously saw enough to start them together in their ensuing matchup. Ware and Adebayo ultimately started in 37 games (including play-in, playoffs), outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per 100 possessions in 606 minutes.

Obviously, the goal was to start Ware and Adebayo together long-term. I was wary of doing it this season because of the team’s spacing offensively–which was still murky in the second half of the season with them together. Miami was still middling offensively when both shared the floor despite finishing in the 91st percentile in effective field goal percentage (per CTG), but it showed remnants of a reasonable long-term ceiling (especially defensively) together.

A fully healthy Terry Rozier would be a positive in the backcourt:

I was high on the Terry Rozier trade at the time, and how he played before his season-ending neck injury made it feel like I was justified. Oh, how naive of me. I even thought he looked good after the Heat’s first three games. Oh, how even more naive of me!

Perhaps I jinxed it, but everything went downhill for the 10-year veteran, experiencing one of the worst seasons of his career. He averaged just 10.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists on 39.1 percent shooting from the floor and 29.5 percent from deep; his field goal percentage is the third-worst mark of his career while his 3-point percentage is the worst, outside of his rookie seasons, when he played just 39 games with 311 total minutes.

Rozier was stapled to the bench for most of the last calendar month, but Erik Spoelstra had unrelenting trust for the 6-foot-1 guard … and it didn’t work. Hand up, I thought it would go differently.

Andrew Wiggins’ fit with the Miami Heat:

I was very high on the prospects of Andrew Wiggins with Miami ahead of the trade deadline, and I was thrilled when they were able to acquire the one-time All-Star for a disgruntled star who tanked his market.

I am still high on Wiggins as a player, but his fit with the Heat … just didn’t quite mesh as seamlessly as I thought it would. Due to a nagging hamstring injury plus leg, jaw and ankle injuries, Wiggins only suited up for 17 of the Heat’s 32 available games, tying the least healthy stretch of his career (he missed 15 games in 2022-23 due to an adductor injury).

Outside of a two-game stretch against Houston and Charlotte from March 21-23, it never felt like Wiggins found his footing with the Heat. Perhaps the lack of a true point guard would change the trajectory with him not having to self-create as much. Perhaps it is more. Getting traded midseason is never easy–and it’s worth mentioning that he wasn’t all that good upon getting traded to Golden State in 2019-20 (albeit in 12 games).

However, as of right now, I was dead wrong about it. Hand up.

Jimmy Butler’s trade package was a good one:

This goes hand-in-hand with what I mentioned above: Wiggins playing poorly as the headliner didn’t help the package. At least the Heat acquired Davion Mitchell! Kyle Anderson had moments as a backup-five and could help facilitate a trade as a decent asset at a decent price.

Oh, and the Heat have a draft pick! But I don’t feel as good about it as I did then, admittedly.

Butler should not have been traded in the offseason:

Last summer, I held the belief that it might’ve been difficult to move Butler because he was coming off the worst injury of his career. Like I’ve said before, it’s much easier to GM in hindsight. But I can acknowledge that it would’ve been smarter to look to trade him then instead of waiting to do it midseason if they weren’t going to pay him.

I still maintain the belief that Miami shouldn’t have extended him; him at the twilight of his career at $55+ million per, with Adebayo and Herro, is not fixing this mess. There’s a reason why they were a play-in the two seasons prior to this tumultuous season.

Tyler Herro would not reach his max ceiling with Heat:

In all fairness, Herro likely still hasn’t reached his max ceiling, and there’s not telling what his future may hold. But I do remember telling HHH’s own Brandon Di Perno that I didn’t think it would come with the Heat because of his fit alongside Butler and Adebayo; I was critical of his mid-range diet relative to those two (plus others).

Well, he modified his shot diet and had the best season of his career, making his first All-Star team while shooting 37.5 percent from deep on 8.7 3-point attempts per game. Was I still critical of his decision-making, especially late in games? Yes. Am I concerned about his defense (not for the lack of effort)? Yes. What about his long-term fit? Still, yes (that will be explained in a later post).

But I was wrong about him not continuing to break through his ceiling; he’s improved every year of his career and improved incrementally in different parts of his game last year.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. would be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate:

After the Heat’s No. 18 overall pick finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting last year, I was high on his prospects heading into his sophomore season. I thought he had Sixth Man of the Year potential. That didn’t come close to happening, as he regressed. He didn’t look healthy for most of the season because he didn’t have as much explosiveness, but he didn’t do a good job developing any counters nor did his long-range shooting improve–which is what he wanted to improve heading into the season.

Regardless of whether he’s moved or not, I’m still not selling stock on him becoming a consistently impactful rotation player. Not all growth is linear, but this was an objectively bad season for Jaquez in every facet.

Report: Heat won’t offer all three tradable firsts for Kevin Durant

Heat’s wing rotation was a good problem to have:

No, no it was not. There weren’t many–if any–true difference makers post-Butler. High-end two-way depth in today’s NBA is at a premium–especially on cost-controlled contracts. To win, you need it (plus stars). Miami did not have good depth at any position this season, especially in the area where it was most clogged.

Bam Adebayo would make less than 60 threes:

I was on record saying he would make exactly 58. He made 79, including 56 over his final 45 games at a 40.9 percent clip. I’ve long thought he had great form, but it was a matter of his 3-point shooting becoming more practical instead of theoretical–especially if the goal was to play alongside Ware. Defenders still don’t respect him that much, but I was very encouraged by his 3-point shooting–from the corner and ATB.

Heat would win more than 44.5 games:

I correctly predicted the Heat would be an No. 8 seed, but I also thought they would finish with more than 44 wins (similar to 2023-24, when they finished with 46).

Well, that was off. I never said I was good at gambling (I’m not), even though we went 11-7 in our best bets this year.

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There was probably more I was wrong about that I didn’t list because that’s just what happens sometimes. Were you wrong (or right) about anything regarding the 2024-25 Miami Heat? Let us know in the comments!