If Heat acquire Kevin Durant, sacrifices will need to be made

For 30 years, we’ve always known one thing about current Miami Heat president Pat Riley: He’s going to star hunt, and if they have even a sliver of a chance at competing for an NBA Title, the Heat will. They’ve struck out on stars, but have also captured Alonzo Mourning, Shaquille O’Neal (at the tail-end of his prime), LeBron James, Chris Bosh and, most recently, Jimmy Butler.

That’s been their M.O. since Riley took over, and it hasn’t changed.

They’ve been one of the most successful organizations because of it, winning seven conference titles and three NBA Titles in 2006, 2012 and 2013. Obviously, the biggest reason for their success is Dwyane Wade, but how the organization has operated with unparalleled stability, a revered culture and uncanny development can’t go unnoticed under Riley’s guidance.

However, coming off the team’s first 37-win season since 2014-15, changes will be made. Just months after trading a disgruntled 35-year-old Jimmy Butler, Riley openly admitted during last week’s end of season press conference that he would be willing to take on an aging star who’s “the right name” with the right contract.

We can all guess who that name is: Kevin Durant. However, if the Heat pull up said deal, sacrifices will need to be made elsewhere, adding question of whether it’s actually worth it.

The Miami Heat’s cap sheet for 2025-26 becomes more precarious with Kevin Durant:

The Heat are in a suboptimal position: They are trying to star-hunt, but don’t have very good assets with it. Not to mention, they’re the 10th-best team in a conference that the consensus perceives to be “wide-open” for various reasons.

That only applies to good teams or teams currently in the hunt to contend. Miami, as currently constructed, is neither.

Could that change with Durant, whose market appears to be drying up? Perhaps! Let’s examine some of the complications.

Unless a third team is involved, a two-team trade between Miami and Phoenix isn’t as complicated as a Butler swap would’ve been, since Durant carries value, unlike Bradley Beal’s $53.7 million cap hit and incomprehensible no-trade clause attached.

However, Phoenix is still in the second apron, meaning they can’t aggregate salaries or take back more than Durant’s $54.7 million in a trade for him. For the sake of conversation, let’s say the Heat acquired Durant for Andrew Wiggins (fourth-best trade asset), Nikola Jovic (second-best player under 23-years-old) and Duncan Robinson, who gives Phoenix some salary relief with his $19.8 million partially guaranteed contract. That gets the Heat up to $52.5 million, making this trade legal. Pick whatever 1-2 first-round picks you want.

However, Miami’s three best players in this scenario–Durant, Adebayo and Herro–would allocate for roughly $123 million, or 79.8 percent of the projected $154.6 million salary cap. That’s before you factor in potentially re-signing Mitchell, Terry Rozier’s $24.9 million partial guarantee (that could be very difficult to move by itself), etc.

Assuming that Mitchell makes $10 million flat next year, those four would account for 85.9 percent of the cap, throw in Ware and it’s 88.7 percent.

What if, instead of Wiggins, Mat Ishbia decides to take Rozier, a negative asset despite being on an expiring contract? A quintet of Herro-Wiggins-Durant-Adebayo-Ware would take up **checks notes** 100.5 percent of the team’s cap ($155.4M) … for five players. That’s it. Five. For over 100 percent of the cap.

We’re staring in the face of a scenario where the Heat may have to either trade Tyler Herro, who’s up for extension this offseason, or risk not being able to re-sign Mitchell, who blossomed in 30 games with the Heat after being acquired at the deadline. The former doesn’t factor in the fact that not only has trading Herro been far more theoretical than practical (historically), but also the possible contracts that could be included in return. The latter, however, means you lose one of your most impactful players for nothing and are left with an incredibly expensive roster at the top.

If you retain all of the above, you’d better get creative … or you’re at risk of being an incredibly top-heavy roster, which doesn’t work in today’s NBA anymore. Let’s look at some combinations for the percentage of cap that certain players allocate for:

Kevin Durant with no Herro, but Mitchell, Jovic and Ware:

• KD + Bam + Davion ($8M cap hit, for perspective) + Jovic + Ware: 70,3%
• KD + Bam + Davion ($10M) + Jovic + Ware: 71.6%
• KD + Bam + Davion ($8M) + Jovic + Ware + HH: 73.9%
• KD + Bam + Davion ($10M) + Jovic + Ware + HH: 75.2%

Kevin Durant with no Davion, but add Herro in and shuffle Jovic, Haywood Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez Jr.:

• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware: 85.2%
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH: 88.8%
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware: 84.8%
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH: 88.4%

Kevin Durant with Mitchell, Jovic and Jaquez:

• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH + Davion ($8M): 94.0%,
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jovic + Ware + HH + Davion ($10M): 95.3%,
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH + Davion ($8M): 93.6%,
• KD + Bam + Tyler + Jaquez + Ware + HH + Davion ($10M): 94.9%

It’s worth mentioning that most NBA teams operate over the cap, but the first apron is projected to be roughly $46.1 million above the cap, while the second apron is $53.2 million above. There’s breathing room, but when you have to fill out a roster full of 14 players, the tighter you get, the more sturdy those avenues become.

Less is more, and more is less. The less the Heat would have to trade for Durant, the more bloated its cap sheet becomes–limiting their flexibility to make other moves conducive to building a contender. The more it risks giving up, its cap sheet becomes better … but the team doesn’t, and acquiring more viable replacements in free agency (likely at or near the minimum) or with whatever of their middling asset pool has left becomes difficult.

None of this is to say that Durant wouldn’t help. He absolutely would. He’s one of the best scorers any of us has ever seen.

But at what cost are you risking mortgaging the future and dumping more into a 37-win team that was emasculated inside their home building in the postseason without their third-best player … for a 37-year-old in the twilight of his career?

These are the questions that must be asked and answered if this is a route the Heat legitimately pursues. But the prevailing question will be: Who will be the sacrificial lamb(s) in order to make this construct somewhat appeasing?

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