Heat have an important Duncan Robinson decision to make this offseason

We are less than one month away from the 2025 NBA Draft and just over one month away from free agency.

And the Miami Heat, coming off a 37-win campaign, have serious work to do.

Miami has been stuck in purgatory for three years–arguably the worst place to be for any professional franchise. They only have one pick in the draft, but have plenty of consolidating to clear the glut of wings heading into the 2025-26 season and beyond.

One of those players could be sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, who has a very intriguing skillset and contract despite a recent injury history that could cause apprehension in certain front offices.

Heat have an important Duncan Robinson decision to make:

At this point, there’s little debate that Duncan Robinson is the greatest shooter in franchise history.

Robinson has canned 218 3-pointers more than any other Heat player at a 39.7 percent clip. He’s the fastest player to record 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900 and 1,000 3-pointers in his career.

He averaged 11.0 points on 43.7 percent shooting, including 39.3 percent from 3-point range across 74 games. Over the last two seasons, he’s made noticeable strides in his all-around game, distancing himself from the “one-trick pony” moniker that followed him over the first five seasons of his NBA career.

However, the 6-foot-7 marksman will be entering his age-31 season and will be coming off consecutive (unrelated) back injuries that hampered his impact and productivity.

Robinson didn’t get a ton of playing time to close the regular season and only played 60 minutes in the Heat’s first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, shooting 5-of-14 from the floor and 4-of-12 from 3-point range, including a 0-of-5 showing in the Game 4 finale.

Robinson is one of four Heat players who have expiring contracts heading into the 2025-26 season. Though one could argue that his is the most important.

The 31-year-old has a $19.9 million early termination option, allowing him to become a free agent before free agency; it’s quite similar to a player option (with a few minute differences that aren’t important in this case). However, only $9.9 million of his $19.9 million is guaranteed up until July 8, when the contract becomes fully guaranteed.

Thus, assuming Robinson exercises his ETO, he could be traded as a salary filler that can offer a team $10 million in salary relief if he’s waived by that date.

That could be attractive to certain teams. However, there’s always the possibility that Miami may have to attach an asset to incentivize–despite it being an expiring contract. The Heat don’t have very many assets, let alone attractive ones. Back injuries are always an orange flag (at best) for players entering their 30s, but he excels at one thing that teams feen for: 3-point shooting.

You can never have too much shooting in today’s NBA, and the Heat know that. But do the pros of Robinson’s expiring contract and recent injury outweigh the cons?

That’s the calculus Miami must figure out sooner rather than later. How you allocate dollars has never mattered more in today’s NBA.

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