The Terry Rozier conundrum

Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier had a very bad season–one of the worst of his career.

In his first full season with the Heat, the 10-year veteran averaged 10.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. But he shot just 39.1 percent from the floor, his worst since his sophomore NBA season in 2016-17, and 29.5 percent from 3-point range, the worst since his rookie year, when he played just 39 games (and totaled just 311 minutes).

For more on how disappointing his season was, check out Dan’s player review here!

As we enter the 2025 summer, Rozier owns the Heat’s biggest expiring contract. But given how inexplicably bad this season was for him, they may need to face this stark reality if they want to get off his money.

Moving Terry Rozier’s contract could be more difficult than we might think:

I’d be foolish if I said we already knew the answers to the test.

None of us is privy to the conversations being had between front offices.

That said, ccoming off arguably the worst season of his career, the final year of Rozier’s contract is a partially guaranteed $26.6 million deal. Though only $24.9 million–roughly 93.5 percent of his cap hit–is guaranteed.

It’s a big guarantee without much wiggle room for salary relief–barring a waive-and-stretch, which would equal out to roughly $8.3 million for the next three years.

I feel like a broken record, but every dollar matters in today’s two-apron economy. You could use Rozier’s $24.9 million to salary match in any trade, but there better be sweeteners for a (rational) front office to entertain that.

Recall how Rozier was acquired: Trading Kyle Lowry’s expiring $28.3 million, which was viewed as a bad contract at the time, plus a 2027 lottery-protected first-round pick for Rozier, who Charlotte sold high on.

Well, the last thing Miami needs to do is consolidate more future assets (picks) to offload bad contracts. That’s desperate, and they have a track record of doing that with second-round picks. They don’t have a single second-round pick through 2031 for that reason, with the only worthwhile trading being the one to acquire Davion Mitchell.

If you can find a way to use Rozier’s contract as a salary filler in a bigger trade, that’s an optimal route. Miami is already strapped for assets, so attaching one to Rozier would confirm they didn’t learn their lesson.

You’re selling low on a small guard entering his age-31 season who accounts for roughly 17 percent of next year’s salary cap. That’s not nothing. That’s a contract you may have difficulty moving unless the right deal appears–which may never arrive at the doorstep.

All that said, it could be equally as challenging to bring Rozier back into this current situation. He never had an issue publicly with his role. However, the optics of a $25 million player racking up DNPs isn’t ideal unless you completely lean into this young core and prioritize flexibility entering the summer of 2026.

A change of scenery is what’s best for the 31-year-old. But the Heat enters this summer in muddy waters regarding Rozier’s future because of his contract in an era where allocating dollars has never been more important.

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