2025-26 Eastern Conference Play-In: Best bets for Miami Heat v. Charlotte Hornets

Heat Hornets — (Mandatory Credit: Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

It’s the postseason, so you know what that means: Best bets are back! The Miami Heat will play in their fourth consecutive play-in tournament, where they hope to keep their season alive against the Charlotte Hornets in a do-or-die matchup. What will be some of our best bets ahead of the contest?! Let’s dive into it!

(Editor’s note: The listed odds were as of Monday, April 14 at noon EST, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Kon Knueppel o19.5 points (+100):

As we briefed in our “three keys to victory” for the Heat, their defense has fallen off the map since the start of March. They have been the league’s seventh-worst unit over that span, and a big part of that is open shooters knocking down more open 3s; Heat are experiencing opponents’ 3-point progression.

Knueppel exceeded this 19.5 point line in three of their four matchups this season. Additionally, he’s going to be relied on, barring foul trouble. So I’m projecting the rookie guard to play at least 33 minutes. He smashed this line (30, 27 PTS) in the two games he played 33+ minutes versus Miami, where he shot a combined 18-of-37. I’m expecting much of the same from Knueppel, who’s already showcased himself to be one of the NBA’s top shooters.

Norman Powell o19.5 PTS + AST (+102):

Color me crazy, but Powell looked a little more refreshed in the Heat’s season finale on Sunday. I’m betting on that carrying over, especially if Pelle Larsson doesn’t play. When Powell plays at least 25 minutes, he’s exceeded this line in 90 percent (43-48) of his games this season, including in 11 of his last 12 games. Moreover, when he plays at least 25 minutes, he’ll averages roughly 15 field goal attempts and four potential assists. In games where he’s reached those two benchmarks, his hit rate for this line is an overwhelming 94 percent (26-27).

Coby White o1.5 made 3-pointers (-132):

White’s minutes per game has dropped by 10 (29 to 19) since his arrival in Charlotte, so this play is a little more risky, even though I’m eating more value. But similarly to the rationale I used above for Knueppel, I’m using for White, who’s historically killed the Heat (or at least it’s felt like it). He’s averaged 5.3 3-point attempts in games where he plays between 15-25 minutes this season. He’s reached two threes in games where he’s attempted at least five in seven of his last 10 and in 10 of his last 16. Miami surrenders the sixth-most threes leaguewide, so I’m OK with taking this swing in a game that should feature a lot of possessions.