Tanking around the NBA has been nothing short of a hot topic over the last several months. In an attempt to curb it, the league has delivered multiple different “anti-tanking” proposals to team executives to consider. The three presented last month, with one — which would expand the lottery from 14 to 18 teams, where the bottom-10 would receive flat odds of eight percent, with the remaining 20 percent being split amongst the other eight — garnering the most momentum.
The NBA proposed another on Tuesday, called the “3-2-1 lottery”. Here’s a quick rundown:
- The most ping pong balls a team could receive is three.
- The bottom-three teams — in the “relegation zone” — receive two each
- Teams that finish fourth through 10th at the bottom of the standings — good enough to avoid the relegation zone, but not good enough to make the play-in — receive three each.
- Nos. 9 and 10 seeds receive two each
- Teams that lose the No. 7 v. 8 play-in in each conference receive just one (the winner doesn’t get any).
- Teams cannot win the lottery two straight years
- Teams cannot finish in top-5 of the lottery in three straight years
This new proposal would be put into effect for the 2027 NBA Draft and end in 2029, on the cusp of when the current CBA expires. Voting won’t take place until May 28, so it’s still far from being ratified.
But let’s delve into a fun little thought exercise: How would this affect the Miami Heat?! Let’s examine!
How NBA’s new lottery proposal affects the Miami Heat:
For one, the Heat don’t completely control the fortunes of their first-round pick next season. But they would own their pick if they make the lottery. And if they aren’t a top-7 seed by the start of next year’s playoffs, under this reformed lottery, they are technically a lottery team.
Miami was a play-in team for the fourth straight season in 2025-26, getting bounced in the 9-10 play-in game and appearing in their first lottery in over a half-decade. Should they make the lottery again, that’d either mark a fifth-straight appearance or whiffing on the play-in entirely, which this new proposal incentivizes.
Coming off another disappointing campaign, there is a lot of pressure on the Heat front office this offseason to pick a direction. They’re stuck in the middle, but this new proposal may have opened a new remedy to that.
It will still take plenty of luck — something this organization has had as it pertains to the lottery. In 11 lottery appearances, the Heat have never moved up. They’ve moved back from their projected pick six times, including by three spots twice.
Obviously, the Heat don’t need to full blow tank to get back into contention. But every single recent champion has, more or less, built through the draft. A lot of luck is needed to either 1.) acquire a top-5 or 10 pick, a historically good range for nabbing a future All-NBA cornerstone (hey, Dwyane Wade!!!) or 2.) Somehow hit on a talent (i.e. Nikola Jokic) that nobody foresaw in the later picks, which is far more rare.
If the Heat hypothetically finished fourth through 10 in the bottom of the standings, they’d have an 8.1 percent chance at landing the No. 1 pick. Yes, six other teams would have similar odds. But even if they acquired just two ping pong balls, they’d have as great a chance as the three-worst teams in the NBA — a 5.4 percent chance. That’s a better chance than they have at landing a top-4 pick (4.8 percent) now, and more than quadruple the chance they have now (1.0) at No. 1 overall.
At this current juncture, Miami’s destiny won’t change until it has a franchise-changing talent not named Bam Adebayo. Wade isn’t walking through those doors anytime soon.
All it will take is a little luck, and this new proposal allows space for that.
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“Obviously, the Heat don’t need to full blow tank to get back into contention. But every single recent champion has, more or less, built through the draft. A lot of luck is needed to either 1.) acquire a top-5 or 10 pick, a historically good range for nabbing a future All-NBA cornerstone (hey, Dwyane Wade!!!) or 2.) Somehow hit on a talent (i.e. Nikola Jokic) that nobody foresaw in the later picks, which is far more rare”…
“At this current juncture, Miami’s destiny won’t change until it has a franchise-changing talent not named Bam Adebayo. Wade isn’t walking through those doors anytime soon.”
bam franchise changing lol.knicks ind tor denv lal cleve did it the old fashion way fa,teams can be built both ways sm.most are a combo of both.
The times they are a changin. Top-rated players still sign outright free-agent deals if they are moving to a team with significant cap space (e.g., the Brooklyn Nets in 2025). However, the number of teams with substantial cap space is decreasing, making the sign & trade or the extension-and-trade (where a player extends with their current team and is then traded) more common than unrestricted free agency for top-tier talent. The last big group of top tier players that were signed via free agency was 2019 (Kawhi Leonard – Clippers), (Kevin Durant – Nets), (Jimmy Butler – Heat)
yeah like football free agency better each team gets same salary cap and when players contract is up either match it or dont .to many stupid restrictions in nba aprons aprons total bs ,heck the fins just released tyreek tua etc the heat should be able to release a guy they dont want and eat the salary or trade to a team that will eat some of salary.why keep a mistake like jovic just release him open up a roster spot for somebody better
Paying Tua $90m and releasing him is one of the dumbest sports decisions I’ve ever seen.
If you get rid of Bam the change would be immediate and for the worse. Bam is the backbone of the Heat’s defense. On offense he is a good #3 scorer.
The solution is not to get rid of Bam but to acquire or develop good two-way #1 & 2 scoring options who are reliable, consistent and available (not injury prone).
Since Riley is so insistent on players who are consistently available, I can’t see him bringing in players who consistently miss games due to injuries, I don’t care how good they are.
A few years too late, but this is the exact type of lottery reform that I was calling for. Including play-in teams as a part of the lottery was a no-brainer. A team like the Heat shouldn’t be punished for winning in the play-in as a lower seed, but that’s exactly what happened last year. Winning the 8th seed from the 10th spot caused the Heat to lose their lottery pick last year. The reward was a 1st round thumping by the Cavs. Lose-lose. But a team shouldn’t have to WANT to lose the play-in! Being able to keep the lottery pick and still get a chance at a higher pick makes it win-win.
This also cuts the extreme tanking at the bottom of the standings, as this gives teams an incentive NOT to be a bottom-3 team. Of course, it still doesn’t eliminate posturing for a good lottery spot, but it does help eliminate the most blatant tanking.
One thing that this article doesn’t mention is that there would be more than just four lottery drawings for the top 4 picks. If I read the new lottery proposal correctly, ALL of the lottery picks in this scenario (1-18) will be drawn. This would allow teams a chance to move up higher in the draft even if it isn’t to one of the top 4 picks. THIS is what would be most meaningful to teams stuck in the middle like the Heat.
Take this year’s draft for example. The Heat are currently in the 13th spot in the draft, with just a 4.7% chance of moving up to a top 4 pick. That means that there’s a 95.3% chance that the Heat will remain in the 13th spot or drop to the 14th spot if Golden State jumps up. With the new lottery proposal, even if the Heat didn’t jump up to one of the top 4 picks, there’s still a chance for them to a higher pick. Jumping from the 13th spot to, say, the 6th spot would be HUGE in a draft as rife as this year. And even jumping up to the 10th spot or something would still give a franchise a better chance of adding a significant talent. I trust the Heat’s scouting department when it comes to this.
Lastly, this reform also prevents a team like the Spurs from getting 3 top-5 draft picks in a row like they did (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper). Note, this reform would have also prevented OKC from getting Durant, Westbrook, and Harden in consecutive years. This prevents teams from simply tanking from year to year and hoping to luck out on consecutive top picks (*cough* Philly’s “process” years).
All-in-all, this would be a win for the league.
Teams will find the way to avoid new rules, only the price will be smaller. I m not optimistic.
Well they have a limited time to find a new way to avoid it, cuz the new cba will be a couple years after. I’m definitely optimistic tho, if it goes through. So we would either get a whale/ss, or strike out again , and build on our young core, and it would be easier to move up to the top 10 or even in the top 5. Ngl I’m leaning towards the latter. Even if the draft the draft is weak, choosing higher will give us better odds at finding a talented stud. Then chase a star in 27, let’s see what Riley, and the gang does. Btw that pic of silver looks scary makes me think there is lizard or alien behind that face.
i’ve said many times in the RC household that I think he is an alien, lol. As for the new proposal, it is pretty convoluted, but anything that discourages intentional tanking is a good thing. I have read comments about the 2027 draft being a weak one compared to others. It was suggested that Miami would be so bad in the next 2 years, that Charlotte could possibly get a number one draft pick in 2028 as it is unprotected . I absolutely do not believe the Heat will be a bottom 5 team at that point. And, while there might not be great players in the 2027 draft I looked at players who might be available in the 6-10 spots, and I can say that there are players there who would help the team and are quality players. Not superstars or All-Star players, granted, but players who could be good rotation players.
I think the 2027 draft may be better than previously thought. A number of projected first round picks are choosing to return to college. In addition, several projected second round picks who choose to return to college may improve enough a year from now to be worthy of first round consideration.
my unfav martian