3 things that must go right for Heat to contend in improved East

Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat — (Photo courtesy of the Miami Heat)

The Eastern Conference will be much, much better this season.

Plenty of teams around the Heat improved, namely the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks. But Miami also improved by making the biggest trade of the summer, acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo away from the Milwaukee Bucks. There is expected to be 11 teams competing for eight spots. Miami is squarely among that pack, but how will they separate themselves into a surefire contender?

Here is a shortlist of what must go right.

They must stay healthy:

Staples has a “that was easy,” button.

Can someone cue the “no duh” button?

It may seem simple, but stars all around the NBA are getting injured, specifically as it pertains to the Achilles. The NBA is pushing back on the notion that the pace of play and 82-game schedule directly correlate to those injuries, but the bug still exists. We aren’t long removed from Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum and Damian Lillard rupturing their Achilles. And new Miami Heat superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo was sidelined with a calf injury (a red flag for Achilles injuries) for nearly 50 games last season.

The Miami Heat have battled numerous injuries to Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler, among others, over the last two seasons. It’s an issue the rest of the NBA is dealing with, too. Health will dictate the last man standing; competing for a title is just as much about “who’s healthiest” versus who’s the best team on the court.

Get to April and May healthy, and the Antetokounmpo-Adebayo-Spoelstra triumvirate can make anything possible. That is easier said than done, though.

Improvement offensively, in both the halfcourt and transition:

The Miami Heat did slip over the last six weeks defensively. But they were a fairly mediocre offense despite finishing second in points per game, as they were No. 12 in offensive efficiency, No. 18 in effective field goal percentage and No. 17 in true shooting percentage.

Miami’s halfcourt efficiency (99.2) wasn’t bad, ranking just outside the top-10. Those numbers were a byproduct of a fast start and a strong finish, ranking inside the top-10 in halfcourt efficiency post-All-Star break. Still, a full 82-game slate of elite-level production in the halfcourt, given the team’s lack of volume 3-point shooting, will be a small needle to thread. But the best halfcourt offenses generally do well in the postseason, when it’s more physical and offenses become more predictable over a seven-game series.

The Heat’s transition output is a bigger issue. They have ranked in the bottom half of transition offense in three of the last four seasons, including last year, where they placed No. 18, per Cleaning The Glass. The Heat were also only above the Charlotte Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards in transition points per possession despite leading the NBA in transition points scored per game.

On some nights, their best offense will be their defense. There is plenty of room to grow — Antetokounmpo gives Erik Spoelstra a wrecking ball few teams can slow down. To be a more consistent, competitive offense, Miami must grow in these two areas.

The mystery leap?:

Everyone knows about Giannis Antetokounmpo. Everyone knows about Bam Adebayo. Those are two top-25 players capable of winning this team plenty of basketball games regardless of their surroundings.

The calculus becomes more complicated regarding a championship pursuit. The Heat have depth, but they are relying a lot on in-house growth. To close the gap between them and New York, Oklahoma City and San Antonio, at least one player is going to have to take a serious leap.

Who is that player? Pelle Larsson grew with extra opportunity in his sophomore NBA season; Davion Mitchell was the perfect ancillary guard. Could Nikola Jovic rebound after a catastrophic season? Could Ryan Conwell break out as a second-round rookie if he’s able to consistently knock down shots? Is Mryon Gardner talented and impactful enough to be a consistent rotation player?

Perhaps it will come collectively. Antetokounmpo raises the relative floor, but the Heat’s depth will elevate their respective ceiling, both in the regular season and playoffs.