With a couple of late additions to the roster in Klay Thompson and Nick Richards, the MiamI Heat’s roster heading into the 2026-27 season is mostly settled. Coming off a disappointing 43-win finish, Miami is determined to compete with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the mix.
What are some way-too-early bold predictions for the new season? I’m feeling good today, so here are three!
Heat win the Eastern Conference:
Skinny: Let’s start hot and heavy!
The Miami Heat enter the season with a projected over-under win total of 46.5, depending on where you shop. They also enter with the seventh-best odds to win the East, trailing the defending champion New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics (?), Toronto Raptors, Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, according to FanDuel.
The East is more crowded than it has been in year’s past. To win it, they must finish with a top-10 offense and defense. Under Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have been a top-10 defense in all but two of his 16 seasons. And with Milwaukee, the Bucks were a top-10 offense in five of the past seven seasons.
Miami will need better guard play and shooting to actualize that goal. But a healthy Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo present a high floor on both ends. And in a seven-game series, with Erik Spoelstra’s devils magic, it has as good of a shot as anyone.
Giannis Antetokounmpo wins his third MVP:
Skinny: Maybe I drank too much coffee.
Guess what? I don’t care!
There are only nine players in NBA History to win three MVP’s the most recent being Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic, winning three from 2021-24. With a chip on his shoulder after playing just 36 games last season, playing in an organization that demands greatness, if he’s healthy for 65 games, I expect him to be in the conversation.
The last Heat player to win MVP was LeBron James in 2013. Antetokounmpo averaged 66 games played from 2019-25 after averaging 78 over his first six seasons. Though the 6-foot-11 10-time All-Star is still in his physical prime. And if the Heat win, say, 53-55 games and finish as a top-3 team in the East, he’ll almost certainly earn consideration.
Klay Thompson will make 225 threes
Skinny:
To answer your question, Klay, it’s 270, set by Duncan Robinson in 2019-20.
Thompson, 36, is four years removed from leading the NBA in made threes with 301. As cool as it would be (well, not for Robinson) to see Thompson approach his record, he’s only exceeded 270 threes twice in his career, and he played north of 2,200 minutes both seasons.
The longtime sharpshooter hasn’t made more than 216 threes in a season he’s played fewer than 2,200 minutes. I think that changes this year. Miami will still rely on Thompson for roughly ~23-25 minutes a night. In a scaled down role, his foremost role is knock down open threes generated by their two stars (and Davion Mitchell).
Shooting is the last skill that evades an aging vet. Thompson isn’t as mobile or as nimble as he once was, but he’s still got a pitch-perfect release with a ridiculous amount of shooting gravity. Give me 225 of them #thangz™!!
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#4 Bam gets 70 this time 😂
#5 Spo gets COTY finally
#6 another miracle run 8th seed to east champs
A guy can dream right?
I believe the availability of best players will decide the east standings. Heat can win the east, but other 10 or so teams can do the same too.
I dont think Giannis can win MVP title. He is a top 5 player in the league, but there are 4 more complete players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, SGA), among those two Wemby and Luka havent won MVP before.
Thompson cant do that. If he gets his 10 shots a game and hits 4 of them, and two of them would be threes, I would be over the moon.
I like the optimism too. But, in tempering it, I remind everyone there’s almost no automatic wins outside of Brooklyn (and maybe Milwaukee) in the East anymore. The 46 wins thing seems about right. We are going to be in a dogfight every night. With Giannis a lot is possible. But, the devils advocate in me would portend that Milwaukee had a pretty decent team last year and even before Giannis got injured, he wasn’t able to lift them beyond respectability. Get me one more player, a two way wing who can score on all three levels, and then we can talk. We should try to accomplish that by next season at the latest.
Just to be clear, my optimism isn’t that I think this or that will happen, just that I hope it does happen.
Can’t be too optimistic or pessimistic around here. You get criticized either way.
If this team clicks offensively and has a top 5 defense, there’s no reason it can’t go on a couple of long winning streaks. I also see them closing many close games. Top 4. Who knows how good this team can be if everything clicks.
anything less than jewelry is a failure thats my attitude for this team,we have about a 4 year window with prime greek.after greek gonna be lean times for awhile.
Matt is an optimist after my own heart! Why not? Go for it! You didn’t get Giannis to think conservatively.
If you are going all in, you go all the way in. You burn your ships behind you and take no prisoners. When you play for all the marbles…failure is not an option.