Three down, two to go. We are officially eight days away from opening night for the Miami Heat, with just a pair of preseason games left on the docket against the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic.
Is there anything to take away from the first three games, however? Here are three key numbers.
21.4 – Fastbreak Points Per 100 Possessions
Skinny: Heading into last season, the Miami Heat overhauled their offense, shifting to a screen-averse, tempo-and-movement-based attack. As a result, it escaped the doldrums offensively, posting the 12th-most efficient attack and leading the league in scoring and pace. While one would imagine that Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra would tweak the offense to suit Giannis Antetokounmpo, one thing is evident: The Heat still want to run teams off the floor.
Through three games, they are scoring 21.4 fastbreak points per 100 possessions, the sixth-most in the NBA. Though in the first half of each of their first two games — when the regular rotation played — Miami scored 34.8 fastbreak points per 100, trailing only the Toronto Raptors (34.8). The Heat want to run, and they now have one of the most lethal downhill forces in Antetokounmpo at their disposal.
71.2 – Defensive Rebound Percentage
Skinny: Their defensive rebounding hasn’t always been clean this preseason, but they are still have been a top-6 defensive rebounding team this preseason, hauling down 71.2 percent of available rebounds. The only teams that are better are the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, New Orleans Pelicans, Indiana Pacers and the Atlanta Hawks.
Though in the first half of their first two, that number dipped to a paltry 64.9 percent. I suspect that improves over time. After all, Adebayo and Antetokounmpo are two of the most impactful defensive rebounders in the sport. Of the 237 players who have played at least 5,000 combined minutes over the last five seasons, Antetokounmpo’s 29.0 defensive rebound rate ranks in the 97th percentile, while Adebayo’s 25.0 percent mark ranks in the 91st percentile.
Miami has finished outside the top-10 in DRB% just thrice over the last nine seasons, so I’m not worried about it long-term.
2.1 – Assist-TO Ratio
Skinny: Oftentimes when teams play as fast as Miami, possessions can tend to spiral out of control. However, it hasn’t had that problem yet. Miami is turning over the rock at the third-lowest clip (14.9 TOV%), including a 15.7 TOV% with the regulars. If you prorate those numbers over a full season, neither number is good, but the Heat currently lead the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio this preseason.
Led by Davion Mitchell, it’s safe to say they are operating in a form of controlled chaos. He’s the head of the snake. Mitchell’s tallied 11 assists to just three turnovers through a pair of games. He was top-15 in assists per possession, while his 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio was an NBA-best of players who played at least 2,000 minutes.
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DWade is here in Manila. sucks i cant go see him.
thats the reason he went there to see the great manila heat fan.
It’s clearly too small a sample. But, they are all very important stats, so I hope the early returns turn out to be real. I do hope we have a high defensive rebound percentage.
NBA champions consistently combine elite regular-season records, strong offensive/defensive efficiency, high margins of victory, along with balanced team performance and home court dominance. This team has the potential to be strong in all those areas. If Miami fails to perform up to expectations, it probably won’t be because of personnel, but because of injuries.
If Miami can remain healthy, the team should qualify for one of the top 6 playoff spots. Once in the playoffs, anything is possible.
In addition to having a future Hall of Fame NBA champion coach, Miami has four players who have been on NBA championship teams:
Miami has two additional players with Championship Finals experience:
In addition, Mitchell was a key player on Baylor’s 2021 NCAA championship team.
There is no doubt Miami has the coaching, players and experience to win a championship. It is now just a matter of the team meshing and maximizing its collective potential. If nothing else, 2026-2027 should be a very interesting journey.
Its a small sample.
I would say, that the first one will be around season. But I don’t think that rebounding will be Heats strength, as not low turnover numbers.
Middle of the pack for those two would be good enough.