Heat rank on opposite end of Bulls in 1 key stat that could decide play-in

We are over 48 hours away from the Miami Heat’s play-in game against the Chicago Bulls.

This will mark the third-straight year both teams made the play-in tournament–having met up in both seasons. Miami ended Chicago’s season and clinched trips to the playoffs both times, but now the odds are stacked against the Heat.

Miami will look to become the first team in NBA History to win two play-in games on the road to make the playoffs. Though one key–albeit random–stat does not bode well for the Heat if this year’s regular season is any indication of what’s to come in a one-game sample Wednesday.

Bulls have been the fifth-best team in “clutch” situations this year. Heat were third-worst.

The Heat is no stranger to clutch games.

In fact, they played the fifth-most “clutch” games in the NBA season (42)–defined as games where the point differential is five points or fewer with five minutes left.

Over the last three seasons, Miami has appeared in 138 clutch games. Only two other teams–Golden State (134) and Minnesota (130)–have played in more than 125 clutch games over that span. For perspective, Chicago has played in 116, including 34 this year, tied for the seventh-fewest.

However, Chicago has been more far more efficient in those situations, which are more random than a normal full-game sample. Chicago boasts the NBA’s third-best NET Rating in clutch situations, outscoring its opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions. Conversely, the Heat have been the third-worst, posting a minus-16.2 NET.

The Bulls have been the 11th-best offense with the sixth-highest true-shooting percentage; Miami’s been the worst offense by a considerable margin with a league-worst 49.5 true-shooting percentage! Yikes! Not good, Bob.

If you zoom in a little closer–with the differential being three points or less in the final three minutes–the Bulls have the second-best NET (22.9!!) while the Heat own the seventh-worst (minus-9.5).

There have been so many times this season where Miami’s offense has sputtered late due to poor decision-making and the lack of solid execution. It’s one of the many reasons why they have blown an NBA-most 21 leads over the final 12 minutes–a problem that was not cleaned up.

Miami has been good enough to build several double-digit leads, but not good–or smart–enough to maintain them. When it hits the fan, they spin out like a beyblade. The same can’t be said about Chicago, blowing only nine fourth-quarter leads (T-4 fewest) and 10 double-digit leads (T-9 fewest).

We will see if history repeats itself Wednesday. The playoffs are a different game than the regular season, but if the game gets tight late, who knows whether this will hold true or not in a pressure-packed environment.

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