The Miami Heat are looking to make history Friday against the Atlanta Hawks, hoping to become the first No. 10 seed in NBA History to win two play-in games on the road and clinch a playoff spot. For more on that, click here!
Anyway, we’re back with play-in best bet columns! On Friday against the Bulls, we went 2-1 straight-up while narrowly missing our four-leg parlay. That’s a better record than I recall for previous season’s best bet columns. Let’s keep the hot streak going!
Well, what are my Heat-Hawks best bets?!? Let’s dive into it below!
(Note: All odds are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook!)
Trae Young o11.5 AST (+110):
While Young has struggled to navigate the Heat’s defense historically, one thing he has done well is carve up Miami with his passing. He’s recorded at least 12 assists and 20 potential assists in four of their last five matchups. Atlanta’s offense struggled to get off the ground against the lengthy, physical Orlando Magic on Tuesday. I expect Miami to be very physical as well–especially Davion Mitchell, whom Young will see a lot. Young led the NBA in assist percentage for the third time in four seasons, and he’s averaging 19.9 potential assists at home this season. He sports a 73.5 percent hit rate with at least 19 potentials this season, including in 16 of his last 18 games. Miami surrenders the eighth-most assists to opposing point guards, so I’m OK taking this bigger number at plus value.
Davion Mitchell o16.5 PTS + AST (-120):
Speaking of Davion Mitchell, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it! Well, I technically went with his assist line (o5.5) on Wednesday and that hit fairly easily. Today, we’re rolling with the combined points-assist line. I expect Mitchell to see big minutes as Young’s primary defender. He’s played at least 33 minutes in seven of his last 10 games and 10 of his last 15. Mitchell’s surpassed this line in each of his eight games with 33-plus minutes, averaging 21.8 combined points-assists. If you zoom a tad, over his last 10 with at least 30-plus minutes, he’s averaging 9.5 FGA and 11.1 potential assists. In games this season with at least nine shots and 11 potentials, he’s eclipsed this number 72.7 percent of the time (8/11), including in each of his last five. I love this number.
Andrew Wiggins o19.5 PTS (-102):
We’re keeping it simple. Similarly to Mitchell, I’m backing Wiggins playing big minutes in a do-or-die situation. He played 35 minutes on Wednesday–a number he surpassed in seven of his 17 games with the Heat–and that’s the number I’m targeting for his minutes played (barring foul trouble) Friday. Even if you subtract just one minute, he’s averaged 17 shot attempts over his last 20 games with at least 34 minutes. He’s scored 20-plus in each of his last four and seven of his last eight with at least 17 field goal attempts. The Hawks’ defense allows the fourth-most points to opposing small forwards. Additionally, they allow the eighth-most shot attempts and fifth-most free-throw attempts to SFs. Wiggins went 8-of-20 on Wednesday and I’m expecting similar volume with their season on the line against a below-average Hawks defense.
Four-Leg SGP (+628):
- Dyson Daniels 2+ steals
- Trae Young u25.5 points
- Tyler Herro 3+ made 3-pointers
- Heat win
A little less juice on this same-gamer than Wednesday’s, but let’s have a day!
***
To check out our other content, click here.
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!
Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!
Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!