Coming off a 37-win season, their lowest since 2014-15, the Miami Heat need some sort of change. We don’t know what the personnel will look like heading into next season, but what are some numbers that need to change? Let’s examine!
Offensive Rating (21st):
This is the most obvious one on the list: The Heat has been a bottom-third offense each of the last three seasons. There needs to be a talent shakeup–adding a true facilitating guard to the mix could help! However, Erik Spoelstra doesn’t have a great track record as an offensive-minded head coach, so perhaps integrating a fresh offensive mind on the coaching staff could help shake things up.
Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (25th):
Two reasons why Miami struggled to score were its lack of rim pressure (more on that below) and lack of self-creation, restricting its ability to consistently get to the free-throw line. They finished with the sixth-fewest FTAs per 100 possessions, finishing above only Chicago, Boston, Charlotte, Oklahoma City and Washington. Miami was one of five teams to not have a single player average at least five free throw attempts per 75 possessions.
Deflections (13th):
The Heat has lost its nastiness. They lost their grit. They lost their identity–the bedrock through which this organization was built. Arguably no team in the sport values deflections more than Miami, finishing outside the top-10 in that category for the third time since the start of 2021-22. Miami needs to get tougher on the defensive end next season, point blank.
Paint Touches (23rd):
This plays hand in hand with the lack of consistently good offense. Generating paint touches is the most fashionable form of offense, and the Heat recorded their fewest paint touches per game (20.8) since NBA.com started tracking paint touches at the start of 2013-14. They weren’t very efficient (63.3 FG%, 21st) when they did tally paint touches, but putting defenses in rotation consistently is inherently valuable to creating advantages in the halfcourt.
Wins Against Good Teams:
For the second consecutive season, the Miami Heat didn’t beat many good teams. Against teams top-10 in point differential, they went 6-18, the 12th-worst record in the NBA, with a minus-7.4 NET Rating in those games (16th). They are 11-38 (.224) in those games over the last two seasons. You can’t expect to be taken seriously and continuously lose to good teams.
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In summary, the Heat needs to:
1) improve it’s offense by obtaining a playmaking point guard
2) improve it’s number of free throw attempts by creating more rim pressure and self-created shots
3) increase it’s deflections
4) increase it’s paint touches on offense
5) be able to beat good teams.
It sounds like the team is in need of a complete makeover. Here’s my suggestions:
1) Trade for or sign a free agent playmaking “A” level point guard
2) Trade for a two-way wing player who is comfortable creating his own shots and driving into the paint.
3) Transition to a stronger defensive team that is built on defense first, such as OKC.
4) Recruit players who are not hesitant to navigate the paint area, either to take their own shots or set up teammate’s shots.
5) Rather than looking for a quick fix that ties the team’s hands for years to come, build a team through trades, draft, free agency that can be molded to be competitive and contend for a title.
Before pursuing a comprehensive makeover, Miami needs to identify players who do not fit the team’s long range plans and buyout, trade or release them, if possible, or wait for their contracts to expire.
You can’t win against good teams if you keep “running it back” expecting different results. The Miami Heat is in serious need of a paradigm shift (“an important change that happens when the usual way of thinking about or doing something is replaced by a new and different way.”)
If Riley’s way no longer works, the organization must evolve and find better ways to accomplish it’s goals. If Riley’s ideas are obsolete (and he is stuck in the methods of a bygone era), he needs to retire and turn the reins over to a younger, more innovative successor who can turn the page and begin a new chapter.