We are two weeks away from the 2025 NBA Draft! Time is flying by, with this potentially being a huge draft for the Miami Heat, who own the No. 20 pick.
Every draft is different in its own, beautiful way. It’s nearly impossible to evaluate how good each draft is until at least 2-3 years, but the expectation is that the 2025 class will be as good at the top as we’ve had in recent memory, led by Duke superstar Cooper Flagg. However, in the Heat’s instance, drafting at 20 is different than, say, the lottery or the top-10.
I won’t carve through each and every draft, for the sake of this article. But what does recent history tell us about the Heat’s draft position? I parsed through each of the last five drafts to see if there was anything that stuck about the No. 20 pick, and what that could mean for June 25. Let’s examine.
(Editor’s Note: I listed five picks after No. 20 to give a better indication of which players were available at 20, while listing just two beforehand to see a couple of players that almost fell.)
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2020 NBA Draft:
- 18: Josh Green, F, Arizona
- 19: Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova
- 20: Precious Achiuwa, F/C, Memphis (HEAT)
- 21: Tyrese Maxey, G, Kentucky
- 22: Zeke Nnaji, F, Arizona
- 23: Leandro Bolmaro, G/F, Argentina
- 24: R.J. Hampton, G, New Zealand
- 25: Immanuel Quickley, G, Kentucky
Other notable picks: Payton Pritchard (26), Jaden McDaniels (28), Desmond Bane (30), Tre Jones (41), Isaiah Joe (49), Sam Merrill (60)
2021 NBA Draft:
- 18: Tre Mann, G, Florida
- 19: Kai Jones, F/C, Texas
- 20: Jalen Johnson, F, Duke
- 21: Keon Johnson, G, Tennessee
- 22: Isaiah Jackson, F, Kentucky
- 23: Usman Garuba, F/C, Spain
- 24: Josh Christopher, G, Arizona State
- 25: Quentin Grimes, G, Houston
Other notable picks: Cam Thomas (27), Santi Aldama (30), Herb Jones (35), Miles McBride (36), Ayo Dosumnu (38), Aaron Wiggins (55)
2022 NBA Draft:
- 18: Dalen Terry, G, Arizona
- 19: Jake LaRavia, F, Wake Forest
- 20: Malaki Branham, G, Ohio State
- 21: Christian Braun, G, Kansas
- 22: Walker Kessler, C, Auburn
- 23: David Roddy, G/F, Colorado State
- 24: MarJon Beauchamp, G, G-League Ignite
- 25: Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame
Other notable picks: Nikola Jovic (27), Peyton Watson (30), Andrew Nembhard (31), Jaylin Williams (34), Max Christie (35),
2023 NBA Draft:
- 18: Jaime Jaquez, F, UCLA (HEAT)
- 19: Brandin Podziemski, G, Santa Clara
- 20: Cam Whitmore, G, Houston
- 21: Noah Clowney, F, Alabama
- 22: Dariq Whitehead, G/F, Duke
- 23: Kris Murray, F, Iowa
- 24: Olivier Maxence Prosper, F, Marquette
- 25: Marcus Sasser, G, Houston
Other notable picks: Ben Sheppard (26), Julian Strawther (29), GG Jackson (45), Toumani Camara (52), Trayce Jackson-Davis (57)
2024 NBA Draft:
- 18: Tristan da Silva, F, Colorado
- 19: Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor
- 20: Jaylon Tyson, G, California
- 21: Yves Missi, C, Baylor
- 22: Da’Ron Holmes, C, Houston
- 23: AJ Johnson, G, Australia
- 24: Kyshawn George, G, Baylor
- 25: Pacome Dadiet, F, France
Other notable picks: Terrence Shannon Jr. (27), Isaiah Collier (29), Jonathan Mogbo (31), Tyler Kolek (34), Jaylen Wells (39), Pelle Larsson (44), Jamal Shead (45), Quinten Post (52)
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So, what does recent history indicate?
It’s difficult to hit draft picks out of the park that are outside the top-10, let alone outside the top-20. If you’re looking at it from an All-NBA perspective, since 2000, only 21 players drafted outside the lottery have made an All-NBA team. Over these last five drafts–a microscopic sample–that number is a big fat donut. If you’re drafting outside the top-10, generally, you’re looking for players who can contribute as role players with potential All-Star upside.
Recent history suggests those players will be available at 20. In 2020, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Desmond Bane were all first-round picks after 20; Jalen Johnson was the No. 20 pick in 2021, with Quentin Grimes, Santi Aldama, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosumnu and Aaron Wiggins shortly thereafter; in subsequent drafts, Christian Braun, Walker Kessler, Andrew Nembhard, Julian Strawther, Toumani Camara and Yves Missi were all picks 20 or later.
Will that actually happen on draft night?
Yes, and no.
Let’s start with the bad: This year, the middle of this draft was gutted with players either heading back to school or not declaring at all. There were only 106 early entrants (not including seniors) this year, when there’s typically north of 200. Furthermore, 50 of those 106 withdrew their name. You can thank the NCAA’s rabid NIL for that. When players can go back to school for (potentially) seven figures instead of the possibility of them not earning a guaranteed contract, you’re likely going to take that money, try to improve your stock and throw your name in the hat the following season. And there’s nothing wrong with that!
But I still think there’s the possibility that talent falls to 20. I’m not going to say that I anticipate plenty of movement in the first round, but I’m expecting chaos after the first few selections–when Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Tre Johnson and Ace Bailey are presumably picked. Different front offices have different evaluations for each player based on an intersection of tape, pre-draft workouts and pre-draft interviews. A number of quality talent could fall to the Heat at No. 20 that they like, but we won’t know until draft night, should they not trade the pick.
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Still too early to tell in what direction Miami will go. However, the team’s glaring needs are a high scoring two-way PG, a high scoring two-way SG and a good back-up PF/C to rotate with Ware and Bam. If none of those needs can be filled with the players projected to be available at #20, Miami may want to consider trading up in the draft. There are lottery teams that might be willing to listen to trade offers from Miami.
Meanwhile, if Miami can trade for Dejounte Murray, Desmond Bane and Bobby Portis, that would be great.😊