The Miami Heat will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday evening inside Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Penn. What are three questions that need to be answered for a possible Heat victory? Let’s examine!
Can the Heat contain Tyrese Maxey?
One of the biggest questions entering Wednesday evening is if the Heat can contain Tyrese Maxey, who’s averaged 26.5 points, 7.0 assists and 5.2 rebounds over the Heat over the last two seasons. In his two most recent meetings (one with Embiid) against Miami, he posted 30 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists (11-24 FG) on March 18 subsequently followed by 37 points, nine rebounds and 11 assists (15-26 FG) on April 4.
Miami’s point-of-attack defense has been disappointing this season, even though its rim protection and rim deterrence have been above par.
Its lone weapon it hasn’t utilized much is 6-foot-5 Delon Wright, arguably the team’s best point-of-attack defender; they have primarily thrown Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith his way, where he’s still found plenty of answers regardless of who’s ordered to assist on the back-line behind them.
Maxey has also mismatch-hunted (Duncan Robinson), where has been able to leverage his speed and shiftiness to create separation from all areas of the floor. With 4-6-8 eyes on him with the ball in his hands, he’s also leveraged his self-creation into creation for others. It’s a lethal combination–one Miami has struggled with in the past, regardless of who’s matched up against him.
For the most part, he’s carved up every screen coverage and their zone. He’s found answers, but if the Heat are somehow able to contain Philadelphia’s 6-foot-2 speed demon, then they’re in a more favorable position to win.
Will Miami generate enough good offense–or muck it up enough defensively?
Whew … it was another rough season for the Miami Heat offense. It finished as a bottom-third unit for the second consecutive year, and this time it wasn’t due to its inability to make 3s (even though its 3-point shotmaking regressed in the second half of the season).
Miami’s offense flowed at its best with at least one of Duncan Robinson or Nikola Jovic on the floor–and the former will be limited Wednesday with a back injury. It will also be without one of its best shot creators in Terry Rozier. In a postseason game where possessions will be at a premium, that’s important. It can’t have bad stretches offensively against an above-average offense unless it really mucks it up on the defensive end, which it’s capable of doing.
Miami, for better or worse, will want to play in the mud; it’s 17-2 with a defensive rating of 104.0 or lower and 27-6 with it lower than 108.0 in non-garbage-time situations, per Cleaning The Glass. Conversely, it was 1-16 with an offensive rating below 106.0. The offense does not improve down the stretch like it did last year. In fact, its clutch offense fell off a cliff, being a top-7 unit last year to a bottom-3 unit this season, generating 13.3 points fewer per 100 possessions in those situations than it did in 2022-23.
That’s an issue, but if Miami can muck it up enough defensively, it could mask any shortcomings offensively–even if the former is also a big ask with Maxey and Embiid on the other side.
Will Jimmy Butler’s switch flip?
The biggest question, by far, in my mind: Can Jimmy Butler flip the proverbial switch?
It’s hard to amount Jimmy Butler’s 2023-24 season to just one thing, but it’s been a disappointing one for him. At this time of year, we’re typically accustomed to Butler ramping up in time for the postseason–though that has not occurred this season.
That’s not to say it won’t happen come 7:00 p.m. Wednesday, but it’s fair to have reasonable concerns.
His scoring, efficiency, free-throw attempts and defense have all declined and his offensive process down the stretch has made little-to-no-sense. His barometers for energy haven’t been there. The Miami Heat have a very slim margin-for-error based on a few of the reasons I outlined above, but it becomes microscopic if Butler isn’t the Butler we know him to be as–or similar to it–once mid-April strikes.
They have a mastermind in Erik Spoelstra, but you still need your stars to be stars. and if they don’t get 80 percent of “Playoff Jimmy,” the Heat could be playing Friday, whether we want them to be or not.
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The game unfolded pretty much exactly like I expected. Too bad about not having Terry. Injuries continue to plague us. But, every time we are in a close game with Philly, they beat us in crunch time.