Could Jaime Jaquez Jr. take a sophomore leap in 2024-25?

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Heat — Heat wing Jaime Jaquez Jr. finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting last year. (Credit: Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images)

After a long offseason for the Miami Heat, we are finally getting to see the 2024-25 NBA season in action.

Even though there were some moving pieces, Miami brought back most of its core from last season, led by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. However, one of the players who had a breakout season–as a rookie–was Jaime Jaquez Jr., who the team took No. 18 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Jaquez, blossomed right away, leading the team in games played (75) while averaging 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 steals and one block on 48.9 percent shooting, including 32.2 percent from 3-point range and 81.1 percent from the free-throw line. He finished top-5 in Rookie of the Year voting and made first-team All-Rookie.

One of the biggest departures from last season was forward Caleb Martin, who signed with Philadelphia for four years and $35 million after reportedly rejecting an extension that would’ve granted him over $65 million over the next five seasons.

Will that grant him more opportunity and, in turn, better numbers? And will it be enough to help the Heat beat the odds and claim another Championship title? I’m ready to place my bets — if you are too, just don’t forget to refresh your understanding of the state legality of sports betting in the US.

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Projecting Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 2024-25 stats:

According to Basketball Reference, Jaquez’s per-36 projections suggest he averages 15.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals on 49.8 percent shooting, 33.5 percent from 3-point range and 81.5 percent from the charity stripe. Based on last year’s per 36 averages, that would suggest the following:

+0.5 growth in points per 36
+0.2 growth in rebounds
+0.1 growth in assists
No growth in steals

Additionally, he would shoot 0.9 percent better from the field, 1.3 percent better from 3-point range and 0.4 percent better from the free-throw line. In essence, he’d improve in every area–albeit marginally–at a per-36 rate.

Looking at the Heat’s three most recent first-round rookies who played at least two seasons–Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Nikola Jovic–all three of them saw a bump in overall per-36 production from their rookie seasons. However, Jovic was the only one to see a decrease in per-36 scoring.

All three players saw their minutes increase by at least 2.5 minutes per game; Herro was the only one who had averaged at least 20 minutes as a rookie, allowing more room for growth for Adebayo and Jovic.

Each context is different–no two situations are the same. I think there will be a considerable jump in on-ball production from Jaquez–factoring in potential injuries elsewhere plus inherent opportunity increase with Martin’s absence. For the sake of this exercise, I’ll say Jaquez averages 2.5 more minutes per game in 2024-25–jumping from 28.2 to 30.7, just 0.4 minutes more than Herro in his sophomore season.

With a slight uptick in per-36 production, here’s what I determined his final 2024-25 projections to be:

13.6 PPG
4.6 RPG
3.3 APG
1.1 SPG

I also expect a slight uptick in shot attempts from both the field and from 3-point range, where he wasn’t efficient last year.

I think expecting for Jaquez to average 14 and 5 in 31 minutes is perfectly reasonable, though who knows how much of a bump he will get in opportunity if, say, Jimmy Butler misses at least 20-25 games.

I also think there will be an inherent bump with a more-spaced offense. If training camp was any indication, the Miami Heat are going to alter their shot diet to prioritize more shots at the rim and from 3-point range–weeding out mid-range attempts after it led the NBA in mid-range frequency, per Cleaning The Glass.

If Adebayo continues spacing the floor from 3-point range, Jaquez will have more room operate in the mid-post, where he’s at his best. He allegedly worked on his 3-point shot plenty this offseason, which could net greater frequency and efficiency from Jaquez.

I still project he takes less than 35 percent of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc, but greater opportunity could lend more confidence.

There’s a world where Jaquez’s production, as mentioned above, puts him in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation. He finished tied for 9th in 6MOY voting last year, with the eventual winner Naz Reid (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Malik Monk (15.4 PPG, 5.1 APG) as the two clear frontrunners.