The Miami Heat have barely scratched the surface of the 2024-25 regular season, but have won two straight after a dismal season-opener to the Orlando Magic. They are off to their fifth 2-1 start over the last 10 years, their first since the 2021-22 season. What are three positive and negative takeaways through three games … even though they may mean nothing months from now? Let’s examine!
Positive No. 1: Terry Rozier looks healthy … and good!
One of my biggest questions heading into the new season was the health surrounding Rozier–as well as Robinson and Jovic, who also suffered injuries over the last six months–after his season-ending neck injury. Rozier’s essentially picked up where he’s left off offensively, averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 44.2 percent shooting and 40.0 percent from 3-point range. It hasn’t always been the prettiest for him defensively snaking around screens and containing his man in space, but it’s encouraging nonetheless to see Miami’s 6-foot-1 provide a discernible offensively.
Negative No. 1: Lineups with three best players (Butler, Adebayo, Herro) have been awful
Here’s a not-so-fun fact: When Nikola Jovic, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have shared the floor together, they’re a minus-47 in 65 minutes. In other words, they’re a minus-35 per 48 minutes with a minus-34.6 NET Rating. Their new-look starting lineup? A minus-22 in 40 minutes. Is it too small of a sample to take anything away from this context? Sure. But regardless of who’s been alongside Butler, Herro and Adebayo through this microscopic sample, it hasn’t quite worked … yet.
Positive No. 2: We’ve seen a modified shot diet!
Through three games, the Heat, who are currently No. 18 in offense, have taken all but 19 of their 256 field goal attempts in the paint or from beyond the arc–a far cry from where it was last year. Miami’s efficiency from every area on the floor–outside of corner 3s–has been either average or slightly below league average, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Negative No. 2: Heat is the worst (defensive) rebounding team in the NBA
This is perhaps the most daunting statistic through three games. The Miami Heat have been bullied on the boards. They’ve been out-rebounded in every game this season, including by 16 in the season-opener to Orlando and by 10 to Detroit on Monday. Miami’s been a top-7 defensive rebounding team in the NBA in five of the last seven seasons and has never been below No. 18. Well, through three games, it’s dead-last in defensive rebounding percentage by over two percentage points. Alas, the Heat are the second-to-worst team in surrendering second-chance points on a per-possession basis. Yikes! Rebounding wins championships–it’s a small sample, but that cannot continue.
Positive No. 3: Heat is back generating deflections at a high level
Last year, a key element to an oft-disruptive Heat defense lacked: Deflections. They ranked T-20 in deflections after being an above-average unit in that category their three seasons prior. Similar to what we saw in preseason, they’ve gotten back to being disruptive defensively–especially after their season-opener. Miami ranks No. 8 leaguewide in opposing turnover rate, No. 7 in loose balls recovered and No. 6 in deflections–trailing only the Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors. They may be second-to-last in pace, but creating havoc defensively could go a long way in games that a few possessions may decide.
Negative No. 3: Free throw shooting
Free-throw shooting can be random, but Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, specifically, have been below their typical marks from the charity stripe. They’ve combined to shoot 66.7 percent (30-45) from the charity stripe–and the team is shooting just 74.0 percent, the seventh-worst mark. On one hand, it’s very encouraging to see that kind of volume from the two best players, but every point counts in the end! I would amount all of this to nothing (for now), but it’s something to note nonetheless.
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Rebounding: Change starting unit (Jaquez for Jovic works for me).
Defense: Highsmith for Jovic (works for me).
Free throw shooting (will improve on its own).
I agree about probably changing the starting lineup, but I would go with locksmith for pf. Sure he will sacrifice some size, be he will provide better defense, and a big body to withstand big guys in the post. Also he doesn’t need the ball as much as jjj. Locksmith can be catch and shot, and jjj can run the 2nd unit. Locksmith is also a slightly better rebounder then jovic, and boxes out better. I would also consider starting love, once he gets back because he would definitely help with the rebounding. He could double jovic rebound total from 4 to 8 in the same limited 15 minutes. Also he would help Jimmy and bam get easier buckets with savvy passing. Anyways just a thought.
I agree. Love for a few minutes per quarter.