The Miami Heat have barely scratched the surface of the 2024-25 regular season, but have won two straight after a dismal season-opener to the Orlando Magic. They are off to their fifth 2-1 start over the last 10 years, their first since the 2021-22 season. What are three positive and negative takeaways through three games … even though they may mean nothing months from now? Let’s examine!
Positive No. 1: Terry Rozier looks healthy … and good!
One of my biggest questions heading into the new season was the health surrounding Rozier–as well as Robinson and Jovic, who also suffered injuries over the last six months–after his season-ending neck injury. Rozier’s essentially picked up where he’s left off offensively, averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 44.2 percent shooting and 40.0 percent from 3-point range. It hasn’t always been the prettiest for him defensively snaking around screens and containing his man in space, but it’s encouraging nonetheless to see Miami’s 6-foot-1 provide a discernible offensively.
Negative No. 1: Lineups with three best players (Butler, Adebayo, Herro) have been awful
Here’s a not-so-fun fact: When Nikola Jovic, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have shared the floor together, they’re a minus-47 in 65 minutes. In other words, they’re a minus-35 per 48 minutes with a minus-34.6 NET Rating. Their new-look starting lineup? A minus-22 in 40 minutes. Is it too small of a sample to take anything away from this context? Sure. But regardless of who’s been alongside Butler, Herro and Adebayo through this microscopic sample, it hasn’t quite worked … yet.
Positive No. 2: We’ve seen a modified shot diet!
Through three games, the Heat, who are currently No. 18 in offense, have taken all but 19 of their 256 field goal attempts in the paint or from beyond the arc–a far cry from where it was last year. Miami’s efficiency from every area on the floor–outside of corner 3s–has been either average or slightly below league average, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Negative No. 2: Heat is the worst (defensive) rebounding team in the NBA
This is perhaps the most daunting statistic through three games. The Miami Heat have been bullied on the boards. They’ve been out-rebounded in every game this season, including by 16 in the season-opener to Orlando and by 10 to Detroit on Monday. Miami’s been a top-7 defensive rebounding team in the NBA in five of the last seven seasons and has never been below No. 18. Well, through three games, it’s dead-last in defensive rebounding percentage by over two percentage points. Alas, the Heat are the second-to-worst team in surrendering second-chance points on a per-possession basis. Yikes! Rebounding wins championships–it’s a small sample, but that cannot continue.
Positive No. 3: Heat is back generating deflections at a high level
Last year, a key element to an oft-disruptive Heat defense lacked: Deflections. They ranked T-20 in deflections after being an above-average unit in that category their three seasons prior. Similar to what we saw in preseason, they’ve gotten back to being disruptive defensively–especially after their season-opener. Miami ranks No. 8 leaguewide in opposing turnover rate, No. 7 in loose balls recovered and No. 6 in deflections–trailing only the Toronto Raptors, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors. They may be second-to-last in pace, but creating havoc defensively could go a long way in games that a few possessions may decide.
Negative No. 3: Free throw shooting
Free-throw shooting can be random, but Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, specifically, have been below their typical marks from the charity stripe. They’ve combined to shoot 66.7 percent (30-45) from the charity stripe–and the team is shooting just 74.0 percent, the seventh-worst mark. On one hand, it’s very encouraging to see that kind of volume from the two best players, but every point counts in the end! I would amount all of this to nothing (for now), but it’s something to note nonetheless.
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It is why, at some point sooner than later, they need to give Ware some minutes to see what he can do. Sure he’ll make mistakes. But he is an athletic natural shot blocker and rebounder. As the old saying goes, you can’t teach size.
Rebounding is clearly an issue, but I think its a consequence of different style of game. If Bam is standing in the corner for occasional 3p, and Jovic is by definition stretch 4, you wont get many offensive rebounds. And if you switching everything in defense and those two must guard guards, you will have problems with rebounding in defense too.
I think its about pick your poison. Spo choses perimeter defense over packing the paint.
In theory makes sense. Good perimeter defense will result in lower % only, which is not always visible and can be taken as given, but good offensive rebounding of opposite team could make you cry and kicking furniture.
So its not about players, its about game style. Players, all of them, are not in position to rebound well, but they are in position, to defend perimeter well.
As great as Bam is in the defensive end when he’s switched outside the paint Heat don’t have its best rebounder in good position for the boards. But its just one of the quirks Spo has to adjust. Next game is a good test for Miami as NY is coming off a loss and will be hungry for a W. Their kitty KAT got abused by Cavs bigs lol
Rebounding: Change starting unit (Jaquez for Jovic works for me).
Defense: Highsmith for Jovic (works for me).
Free throw shooting (will improve on its own).
I agree about probably changing the starting lineup, but I would go with locksmith for pf. Sure he will sacrifice some size, be he will provide better defense, and a big body to withstand big guys in the post. Also he doesn’t need the ball as much as jjj. Locksmith can be catch and shot, and jjj can run the 2nd unit. Locksmith is also a slightly better rebounder then jovic, and boxes out better. I would also consider starting love, once he gets back because he would definitely help with the rebounding. He could double jovic rebound total from 4 to 8 in the same limited 15 minutes. Also he would help Jimmy and bam get easier buckets with savvy passing. Anyways just a thought.
I agree. Love for a few minutes per quarter.
I agree, but I think you should keep Jovic in the starting lineup and move Tyler Herro back to a 6th man role. I’m sure the Heat can’t do that because this isn’t 2k and there are egos and personalities involved.
Herro did nothing to deserve to be moved. He is doing just fine.
I believe Jimmy is downgraded a bit to play a lot of his minutes against opposite bench.
I agree. Herro would be fine coming off the bench. But, clearly, the weakest link in the starting lineup is Jovic. He is doing okay and continues to slowly improve, but he is not at the level of the other 4 starters. The question is – replace him with who?
He is the worst player in the starting lineup, but somebody has to be. He is a role player and he is doing his role at solid level. But the team success depends mostly on other four, not on him.
JJJ is a better player, but he is a small forward, not PF. As is Highsmith.
Ware is not ready to play. Love is another option.