We have known for nearly a month that Monday night’s 2025 NBA Draft Lottery had no bearing on the Miami Heat, who became the first team in NBA History to escape the play-in as the No. 10 seed.
Miami was still mercifully swept out of the postseason, nowhere to be seen again for the remainder of the 2024-25 season. And for good reason. They were laughed, kicked and stomped out of their home building not just once, but twice by the Cleveland Cavaliers, losing Games 3 and 4 by a combined 92 points–122 for the series, an NBA record.
As a result of making the playoffs, the Heat–who had the 11th-best lottery odds heading into the play-in after finishing 37-45–lost their lottery-protected pick. They still have just one selection in the 2025 NBA Draft: The No. 20 pick, acquired by the Golden State Warriors in the Jimmy Butler trade.
However, the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery results added even more insult to injury to what was already one of the worst Heat seasons since the turn of the century.
The Dallas Mavericks, who had the 11th-best odds, won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery:
Yes, you read that correctly.
The Dallas Mavericks, who had just an 8.5 percent chance at securing a top-4 pick and a 1.8 percent chance at landing the No. 1 pick, won the lottery and earned the No. 1 pick.
They had the 11th-best odds–in the exact spot the Miami Heat held when its tumultuous regular season ended one month ago.
Fitting, right?!
While changing one variable (team) doesn’t mean the Heat would’ve moved up–they never have in 11 trips–the agonizing stomach churn processing the “what-if?” must be lasting. You can’t help but imagine it. You can’t help but laugh.
By no means am I advocating for outright tanking Hornets, Jazz or Wizards style–the Nos. 4-6 picks, respectively–but let’s not forget the greatest player in Heat history was a top-5 pick.
Sure, preventing two future picks from being locked up is a positive from making the postseason.
But Miami could’ve used this one–badly.
For a franchise lacking a clear direction, landing Flagg–or any of the top talents–would’ve put this organization right back on the path it should be on: Building a sustainable contender. The trajectory would’ve completely changed. All of the constant turmoil would’ve been worth it.
Yet, we are all here today, imagining what could’ve been on a day that didn’t have any bearing on the Miami Heat’s pick in the first place.
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cant forgive for jokic what he did to morris our heat brother
strawther is the kornet of denver mp jr and porzingis might be avail next year
Luke Kornet is a free agent
hes to big for the heat
Duplicate, oops.
Guys there are a couple of articles already after this 😜.
Warriors off to Cancun next. Heat already back so they’ll not see their old friend no-joy Jimmy. Maybe finals are already being played bet 1 and 4 in west.
As far as I’m concerned, i see very little difference between our situation and GSW. We got destroyed 4-0. They got blitzed 4-1. Both have now gone fishing. I don’t know about our future, but the Warriors future looks bleak with no cap space.
Folks, if any of you are available, I’d like to form a search party. I think Butler has lost his joy again 😂😂😂!
Warriors have 2 more years of Butler at about $50 million per. Thank goodness we didn’t give him that extension. Their main 3 are 35, 35, and 37 years old.
Actually it’s $55M per ($110,000,000 total) next two seasons. Heat was going absolutely nowhere with either this version of Butler or the “quiet quitter” version.
Question: Do you know the difference is between a “tanker” and “quiet quitter?”
Answer: Although they are both quitters, they choose to quit for different reasons.
For all the disappointment, I like our future more.
Yup. GSW shot their wad on Big Head Coffee.
The difference is that a tanker is often full of oil.
jimmy must think he has a heat uni on tonight
Maybe he ate some sativa gummies at half-time for a little lift then had a “reaction” and went down a rabbit hole reliving January 28, 2025 over and over and over again (the day he was indefinitely suspended for conduct detrimental to the team).
17 points in a close-out game sure wasn’t what the Warriors thought they were getting. They must be re-thinking their $110M investment. Two players on rookie contracts scored 28 and 26 points respectively. One of them was 22 year old Jonathan Kuminga.
Kuminga is a restricted free agent this summer. I wonder how much the Warriors are prepared to pay to keep him? How are they going to pay him? He turned down a 5 year/$150M extension before the season started ($30M per season). He asked for 5 years $175M/$35M per season, which GSW refused to pay. They probably had him on the bench to lower his value so they could have leverage in getting him to agree to an under market value extension this summer. It could have worked if Steph hadn’t gone down and Kerr was forced to play Kuminga. He finally had an opportunity to demonstrate his abilities and potential during Prime Time for all to see. It will be interesting to see how this situation unfolds this summer. I have a feeling there may be more than one team interested in signing him. He’s the kind of athletic player Miami could use.
steve kerr w/o curry is bernie bickerstaff jr. eric spolstra frank vogel.players league coaches job play right players
dramond green is the best basketball player with zero offensive talent.can u name somebody in his area code sunman
Gobert. What do I win. Whatever it is give it to HHHblahblahblah. He needs something to brighten up his day
gsw next year gonna be hard to deal with.the this kumingas a baller.just need a decent center
He’s a free agent and was on the bench until Steph got hurt. There will be a few teams interested in him. Maybe we can do sign and trade for Wiggins.
Agree with you there would much rather have kuminga then jimmy butler 3.0
“The easiest thing in the world to be is a loser,” Haslem said on NBA Today Wednesday morning. “Anybody can do that. If you want to achieve anything in life, you gotta go through the hard stuff. I’ve been taught that everything you want is on the other side of doing the hard stuff. At the end of the day, if you’re prioritizing losing, then you’re a loser. You can’t change that, there’s a karma that comes with that. I don’t think you should ever implement that into your system, organization, or players. Ever.”
~ Udonis “UD” Haslem ~
See, this is why I always said I should have played for the Washington Generals. Easiest job in the world. Just be bad at basketball and get paid. Why couldn’t I have had the foresight to play for the Washington Generals????
I hear you. There is no shortcut to success. You work hard, pay your dues and reap the rewards. There are a lot of folks who think they can take shortcuts. Many are doing hard time, wallowing in misery with a lifetime of regrets or pushing up daisies before their time. As Richard said in Eulogy: “There’s a lot of wise men who are deader than a mf’er.”
dont draft one way players then
Also if that’s the case using haslem and pats words, haslem you were drafted by losers then cause pay in his presser admitted to tanking that year. But sure let’s pretend it’s 2010 and the heat have a ss other ss want to come and play with……oh wait! Or let’s continue to whale hunt end up with nothing and then just run it back again after missing on another whale. Haslem stfu please the Mia heat had plenty of bad seasons while you were playing did you consider yourself a loser then?
I agree with you heat. However, not all players are great two-way players. Several teams in the NBA employ second unit snipers/mercenaries, like Robinson, Beasley, Hield, Burks, Niang and others. Defense is not the strong suit for most of them so they need to be surrounded by strong defensive players and strong team defensive schemes. Likewise, there are a number of offensively challenged one-way defensive specialists who don’t contribute much on the offensive end. That works best when they have high scorers around them.
There will always be a need for outstanding (one-way) scorers and defensive specialists. It’s just a very big mistake to overpay them.
Truth!
ind all 2 wayers,den all.minn all.bost all ny no jb kat
niangs on atl they suk burks heater we suk but hes ok on d .beasley det not sure .robinson meaning unc the worst in league with lazy luka.all the top teams are 2 wayers not pat riley type of players.u cant win if theres a weak defender unless u have a legit ss they just go out u possession after possession see tyler herro vs cleve and boston few years ago
Pritchard started out not too good on defense. Has been working on it. Now he shoots like Steph (Lite) and defends a little like McConnell + Caruso (Lite). Boston has him three more years for less than $24M total. He and Naz are the two best 6th men in the league. At this point, I would say both are slightly better than average defenders.
pp built like a fire hydrant.ty still needs to get stronger.carusos a white dawg.when does gsw turn on the 35 year old quitter .hes kind of given up here.dont buy the bs hes not feeling well.hes 35 with lots wear and tear on those legs.
Maybe he’s quiet quitting on them now that Steph is out. Bitchin how they are booing his @$$. Quitters never win. Karma B-otch.Without Steph I bet Heat would heat GSW’s @$$e$.
Mitchell will never pass that second round.
missing 3 fts that will haunt him his whole career.
They lost by 9. I think it’s the team’s choking that will keep him up at night. Other than Mitchell and Mobley (59 points combined) the other starters Garland (11) Allen (9) and Strus (0) scored 20 points total.
how the f do u miss 3 fts game was within reach sun.
Emotionally/physically exhausted + pressure. Not everyone is a Bronson. Mavs screwed up twice. Brunson and Luka. Can you imagine Mavs with Brunson, Luka and Flagg, plus existing players?
kyrie ad(if they ever stay healthy),not bad brunsons dad either played with knicks or in fo he wanted to go where daddy wanted him to go to.dont think dallas had oppty to do anything sort of like lbj going back to cleve
garland was injured.allens not a scorer.max hot and cold.mitchell was like 8 for 25 thats not good sun.ind the okc of the east all good 2 wayers
Mitchell had reputation as playoff choker when with Utah. Season stats don’t mean jack. It’s how you perform when it’s “Showtime.’ Playoff Jimmy of past showed us that one. Current one is past his prime. He knows he is no longer #1 player. That’s why he wanted to play with KD or Steph. Dude can’t even jump any more. He’ll be worse next year. So sad. Wasaaa!
ty joker and sga for that performance
jamal murray went ice cold in 4th.joker had no help.dort kept them in game sga took them home like a ss does.
michael porter jr pure garbage why is he in
okc denver high high quality bball wow.miami vs chicago oh well we had a good run sun.im ready for mediocre heat years.panthers are very good go cats
You don’t need to wait for mediocre, that team has already arrived. I’m ready for a transition period that will hopefully result in a much needed housecleaning and the arrival of new, younger faces. I’m also looking forward to watching Ware and our other young players and future draft picks grow and develop (hopefully into solid rotation players and/or maybe even a starter or two).
with a happy and healthy jimmy always had a chance to meet rc in july bisc blvd.w/o quitter below mediocre.when u lose by 55 pts u are not mediocre sun.i dont see this changing in the near future.dont have assets to get the stars.dont have winning culture anymore guys want to go to ready to win ring teams.currently we have to take our lumps we had a great run.living this with the canes and fins currently im dreading mediocrity for the heat.there is a good chance we could suk for a while u do relaize that sun.in football u need that stud qb.in bball u need a ss(ant joker sga brunson jt not to many of those on gods green earth
With the quiet quitter we had the past two seasons. we were lying to ourselves. We were already mediocre but weren’t ready to admit it. The first time Butler was suspended on January 3, 2025 for conduct detrimental to the team, the Heat’s record was 17-15. The time to trade him, as RC says, was before the season when his stock was still high. Riley knew the fans would crucify him if he did that. He waited until Butler starting “acting a fool” which pissed off the fans and left him with no choice but to trade him.
I don’t dread mediocrity, I embrace it. The only way to get where we all want to go is to first go through a transition process. How you view the “process” is a matter of perspective. How painful the process is depends on how competently a team’s management handles the transition. With any luck, the team should begin to demonstrate progress/improvement by 2026-2027. With a starting unit of Mitchell, Herro, Wiggins, Bam and Ware, I don’t think it can get any worse. Time will tell.
the 2 teams he got us to the finals were worse than current team he was a top 5 player in playoffs.top 50 player in the reg season.at his age now he cant do what he did for us.just such a bad ending for him here when it started to creep into his head the negativity not sure.i remember him driving on that horse thru dt miami with big ass smile he owned the town loved it tennis latinas etc.we are so far behind the 8 ball sun theres a strong possibility we are bad to mediocre for at least 3-5 years
jokic jamal ty bam 30 win difference
okc needs outside shooting send em dunc and ty for one of their 2 wayers
Jokic is MVP again, no doubt. A center averaging a triple double for the season, are you kissing me? Shai is good but not in same super elite level. If he somehow gets the MVP it will be strictly a political decision, not because he earned it.
Exhibit A: Jokic
29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2, apg 41.7% 3p
Exhibit B: Alexander
32.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 6.4 apg 37.5% 3pt
I rest my case.
what if okc wins.phirouette 3 omg unreal joker
Are you kidding me? lol
different type players.joker is the best player now like lebron was for about 15 years did he win mvp every year.how do u judge mvp .best player everybody knows even sga will tell u is joker.individual opinionated award doesnt mean sht.my mvp for hhh is sunman every poster will tell u that except hhh4l .rc got a few votes to crack the top 5.
Embiid should never have won a single MVP. His teams sucked and Jokic outplayed each of those years.
embids awesome player when healthy.top 5 – 7 player
Maybe, but now higher than Jokic.
I like this….hehe. Even without Heat games HHH is so alive lol. I’m gonna try something…..
Let Riley run it back since Miami just had a major change mid season and they haven’t adjusted well. Maybe it will take a whole season and a bit of changes, trades, and I guess we’ll be back in contention. Go Heat!
Honestly? This version of the team showed flashes of brilliance late in the season. I’m not saying run it back, but also there are some folks out there who are like “sell the farm to get Durant,” and it might just be that there isn’t a good deal available in the offseason. If that’s the case, then there are a lot of summer vibe-checks to make. Who can we get real buy-in from? Who seems jittery? Get them out on the court early in the season, raise their trade value, and offload them somewhere, Justise-style, before Christmas.
Look to land an orca over the summer if you can. Offload baggage in the fall if you can’t. Make sure you know where all your players stand, in either scenario.
I believe you said that “tongue in cheek”. Lol!
Does Indy bouncing Cleveland in 5 – make Miami’s all time nba worst playoff differential even worse?
It’s one thing to say get destroyed by the 72 win Bulls, it’s another to get dismantled by a middling franchise. Cleveland was the 1 seed, maybe they are good and just caught bad luck, but that performance against Indy, just might show how far Miami really is away.
If they aren’t close with Cleveland, likely aren’t close to Indy, Boston or New York either.
Sad days to be a Heat Fan.
Honestly, I’m a little relieved. If Cleveland had won this year, the Heat sweep would be a part of an historic run. As it stands now, it’s just going to be a single trivia point. The Cav’s run ended up being forgettable, and in five years nobody but Cavs fans and Heat fans will remember it. It’s gonna hurt for a while, but it won’t be constantly brought up over and over.
Actually it’s a relief. The team that cleaned Miami’s clock got their clock cleaned. Heat was 10th place team and overperformed by even getting in the playoffs. Cavs, the #1 seed could only win one game in the second round and got swept all 3 home games. Their sting from choking is going to be felt a whole lot longer than our sting from losing a series we were supposed to lose +3000 underdogs to start. Must have been +50000 by the time 4th game rolled around. That series and that season is all history. Cleveland will be reliving their season over and over again the entire off-season.
All hope is not lost. If this team is as bad as many think it is, the Heat should be in line for the lottery pick it missed this season in 2026 (which is also a very strong class).
https://nbadraftroom.com/2026-nba-mock-draft/
Just means we have to waste another full season to start the rebuild, and hope Pat doesn’t give away the pick in the mean time.
It’s not wasted if you have no chance to win it all to begin with
It’s re-tooling.
It’s not a wasted season if starters have time to become more comfortable and familiar with each other, young players have an opportunity to gain experience and improve, the team’s dead weight are all traded for young players and draft picks and the team picks up a 2026 lottery pick.
Best case scenario, short of harpooning a whale without gutting the team’s youth and draft picks, the following could happen, God willing and if the creek don’t rise:
I mean just as you posted best case scenarios, I could easily post the worst. Nothing is guaranteed. I will say Miami with Jimmy Butler was consistently in the back-half of the eastern conference during the regular season. They no longer have Jimmy Butler, instead they have the dollar store version in Andrew Wiggins.
This team could crater worse, or Pat tries to prevent it and trades away draft picks for some aging star, just to have a shot at being the 5-8 seed.
Either way I’m not looking forward to next year at this point in time.
For me, the jury is still out. I know we all are going to hold him accountable. Worse case scenario, Riley screws team up worse, some of the fans and some of us may take a nice long hiatus until something changes for the better.
Would like to hope this is rock bottom. But bottoms can last years . Heat have almost no assets or leverage to improve this roster. Ownership would have spend over every threshold to stock a competitive team it would appear. We can always pray for a miracle !
Interesting article. Here are excerpts:
The Heat wouldn’t have won the first pick
“Let’s say for a hypothetical, that the Heat team decided “to tank” against Chicago. The team would’ve needed 100% compliance on the part of every player on that decision. Obviously, that wouldn’t have happened. One or two or five players would’ve disagreed. They could’ve leaked to the media that the team tanked. Fans could’ve taken cell phone videos of players tanking with effort. Ticket sales would’ve hurt…
ConclusionsThe Heat wouldn’t have gotten the first pick in the draft if they tanked. The first pick in the draft wouldn’t have miraculously made Miami win 62 games next season. The Heat relied too much on Jimmy Butler in the last five years. Now, the team has an “identity crisis” and needs a star to lead.”
https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/the_heat_wouldnt_have_won_the_first_pick/s1_17324_42186443
I’m not sure how the writer would reach this conclusion. The Heat would have had the #11 pick, which, against all odds, ended up with the #1 pick.
As far as their take on tanking, I find it unrealistic. You don’t have some type of team meeting to tell your players to lose on purpose. What you can do is not play your top 8 major minutes. No harm in playing Jaquez, Johnson, Pelle, even Rozier, and telling them to play their hardest. That might change the outcome and result in keeping pick #11 which became pick #1. Most of us here did not at all believe that ‘this team can beat anyone in the east’. I found that laughable, said so, and it proved to be true. Management also had to know this was not a team that had any chance to go far in the playoffs.
Can’t go back to the future. Time to play the cards we were dealt. I know the Heat is unlikely to take my suggestions, but I would try to trade our #20 for the Nets 26 and 27.
1, 4 or 11 Mia needed that lottery pick a team as talentless as this one needs as many picks it can get
The fans would have known it was tanking. Plus, if the players wanted to give their best and let the chips fall where they might, who are we to expect them to willingly participate in an intentional tank job? None of us expected there was a chance in hell that the #11 pick would turn into #1.
Some of us actually thought the team had an outside chance of winning 2 play-in games and getting into the playoffs, although we were hoping they would fight the good fight AND LOSE (with their dignity intact). That didn’t happen. Instead, the guys played their butts off and won twice, on the road, once against a team they were 0-3 against during the regular season (Chicago) and in overtime against the second team (Atlanta).
If you’ll recall, the 8th place team in 2023, which also came out of the play-in process, wasn’t expected to make it out of the first round. Yet they made it to the NBA Finals. I’m old school, you never quit, regardless what the odds are and you live with the results, with your head held high. For me, tanking does not compute. I understand everyone doesn’t think the same way.
As far as playing the cards we were dealt, they are the same ones we’ve been dealt all along. We fans are at the mercy of an aging team president who is stuck in the past and more interested in saving face and feeding his ego by remaining a marginally relevant (play-in) team than he is about planning and preparing for a truly successful future. It is what it is. Until things change at the top, things aren’t going to change at all, except maybe for the worse. I sure hope he doesn’t get desperate and sell the ranch/ mortgage the future by trading away all our young players and draft picks for an aging star to replace the aging star that we lost.
That 8th place team had a star player, this team did not. You might need to clean off your rose colored glasses to see what this franchise is today. About the only person who should be happy about the playoffs is Micky selling a few more tickets.
And Riley since Arison pays his salary.
Yup, that 2023 team still had a motivated healthy Butler. It was clear to me all season long that this team had no shot in making any noise in the playoffs. Actually, it was pretty clear last season when Butler was already in quitting mode.
When he should have been traded. Maybe Riley was trying to squeeze him into giving Miami a hometown break on his extension. Who knows?
You got it spot on.
That Flagg boy…. Good player, but hardly a material for an exceptional one. The best players in the league are guards or bigs doing playmaking. This one is clearly not that.
But with his arrival dallas will need guards, and will have to rid of frontcourt players. PJ Washington and Gaffort should be available. A great backup power forward or a backup center is ecactly what heat needs.
Interesting take. Flagg is a similar size to Paolo, Tatum, LeBron, KD, etc.
Maybe it’s the playmaking comment – but as a Freshman, he led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, blocks…..and assists.
Not sure how much more play making you want…but Cooper Flagg has a chance to be a difference maker. Certainly would have been a huge add to Miami.
I was referring for a playing style of frontcourt players … For example, Giannis, Jokic, LeBron, Bam, Bancero , Butler, Tatum, Wemby all playing a lot at point. Then you have type like KD, Williamson, Towns, Porcingis…. which are more finishers then playmakers. I was thinking that Flagg is more like a second style of playing. And I believe, better players or better said, more impactful players are in the first group.
He would be a great addition to Heat, no doubt. But the main point of my post was, that this addition will force Dallas to get rid of their good frontcourt players, which would be a great addition to the heat.
One of Heat’s issues is that amongst many issues of the Heat, the noise makers on HHH often have their ways to the detriment of the team.
I do not lament about Heat’s post play off fate, it was the wish of the noise makers to make it to the play off and forgo the opportunity of a lottery protected pick.
“I do not lament about Heat’s post play off fate, it was the wish of the noise makers to make it to the play off and forgo the opportunity of a lottery protected pick.“
Agreed all for the sake of experience, one of the dumbest reasons I’ve ever heard. One on here who was a big fan of them making the playoffs instead of tanking is now a advocate for them tanking a whole year
I know you aren’t referring to me here, but I honestly just always want to see our guys do their best. It’s not about experience, per se, it’s just… I feel that if you take your foot off the gas, then that runs the risk of becoming habit, and I love that Miami almost never does that.
It’s one thing if there’s a mid-season game that’s a blow-out by the end of the 3rd and we just play the bench for 12 minutes of garbage time, but it’s another thing entirely if there’s a game where we legit have a shot at winning, and we just decide not to try.
Maybe that’s what you feel happened for game 3 and 4 against Cleveland, and I’ll concede that’s valid. But I don’t ever want to see Miami under-perform for the sake of a better draft position.
sports is about winning.in nba theres no guarantee tanking will get u #1 pick football u can tank and get #1 pick go for it .dolphins had opportunity to tank for burrow of course they won final game which blew their chances for that
Sure and that’s why they are in the position they are in now, no draft capital, no talent no ss and a very murky future. Now have to rely on guys who aren’t 1s or 2s but 3s on a championship team. That pride and not wanting them to tank for better draft position is why they’re a perennial playin team. So you rather they underperform in the playoffs in front of more eyes and be accused of quitting by those with eyes that’s fine with me as well, yall want them a perennial playin team that’s also fine with me, yall like them talentless non athletic players fine, want Tyler and bam leading them it’s also fine. Better not here yall complaining about it though
Remember that we deliberately kicked Meyers Leonard off of the team when it turned out that he was SS. I’m not sure we want one of those.
You complain enough for all of us. Get a life dude.
AMEN EMILY! That’s all I’ve been trying to say. You can want your team to play hard and try to win while hoping they don’t because of draft implications. Getting blown out in games 3 and 4 was not evidence of a team “tanking.” It was evidence of an overwhelmed/outmanned/discouraged team that had been worn down and embarrassed as well as physically and mentally exhausted.
Dude. We are all bloggers. If Miami doesn’t win a championship, none of us “wins.” What we say here has absolutely no detrimental impact on the team. It should be pretty obvious that Riley marches to the beat of his own drummer and could GAF about what any of us thinks, says or feels. All of us are noise makers, some of us are just a little louder than others.
The Miami Heat team is mediocre because it hasn’t evolved since it finished in first place in 2021-2022 with a record of 53-29. That year, Miami lost to the Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on a missed 3 point shot by Butler.
Btw, you’ll find it interesting that while Miami has devolved from 53 wins to 37 wins in 3 years, several other teams have been evolving. At a time when Miami kept “running it back” with an aging small forward, an undersized center, two one-way shooting guards and a game of musical chairs in all the other positions, several teams have made significant strides. For example, following are where teams finished in the final standings in 2022 vs 2025:
Teams that improved their place in standings 2022-2025 (# of places)
Pacers 2022: #13: 2025: # 4 (+9)
Magic 2022: #15: 2025: #7 (+8)
Knicks 2022: #11 : 2025: # 3 (+8)
Cavaliers 2022: #9: 2025: #1 +8
Pistons 2022: #14: 2025: #6 (+8)
Teams that have stayed in the same place in standings 2022-2025
Hawks2022: #8: 2025: # 8 same
Celtics 2022: #2: 2025: #2 same
Teams that have declined in standings 2022-2025 (# of places)
Bucks 2022: #3: 2025: #5 -2
Wizards 2022: #12: 2025: # 15 (-3)
Bulls 2022: #6: 2025: # 9 (-3)
Hornets 2022: #10: # 14 (-4)
Nets 2022: #7 2025: #12 (-5)
Raptors 2022: #5: 2025: #11 (-6)
76ers 2022: #4: 2025: #13 (-9)
Heat 2022: #1: 2025: #10 (-9)
I’m noticing a pattern. The teams that improved the most, also happen to be playoff teams. With the exception of the Bucks (which dropped 2 spots) and the Heat (which dropped 9 spots) none of the remaining teams which dropped in the standings made the playoffs in 2025. Most are in line for a lottery pick and a few have multiple first round picks. All should be expected to improve next season while Riley decides how to “fix” the problems he created while reducing the team’s payroll to below the first apron.
Another whiff. Heat… at this point are irrelevant.
There is a very clear separation of talent between the NBA’s 30 teams. If I were to grade teams from A-F, right now, Miami is a C-/D+ team, at best. It is a long way from being a contending (B) team and even further away from being an elite (A) team.
Riley is a competitor who expects his teams to be in contention every year, even when it isn’t logical or feasible. As a result, he pursues quick fixes rather than long-term solutions. When his quick fixes fail, Spo is left to pick up the pieces.
Riley will not be able to transform the Heat from a C-/D+ team to a B+/A- team in the immediate future. The question becomes, how exactly does he plan to do that while reducing the team’s payroll to below the first apron to avoid severe penalties?
Running it back without significant upgrades will not bring success. Intentionally tanking one or more seasons in the hope of receiving a top draft pick or two also does not seem to be the right way to go. Some fans, such as myself, are opposed to teams tanking (in boxing it’s called “taking a dive”). Tanking is when a team intentionally loses in order to improve it’s odds of getting a high draft pick in an upcoming draft (ask Washington, Utah and Charlotte how it’s working for them).
Starting Mitchell, Herro, Wiggins, Bam and Ware is not tanking.
Inserting younger players on rookie contracts into the rotation for development and evaluation purposes is not tanking.
Trading, buying out or waiting for contract expirations for players who are not part of the team’s long-term plans is not tanking.
I am very interested in seeing how Riley handles personnel issues over the next 12 months. If he succeeds in bringing in an all-star closer without giving away the farm, Miami may be able to join the ranks of the NBA’s competitive teams. If he is unsuccessful, fans will be much more vocal regarding the need for him to retire. If he refuses to retire and Arison refuses to fire him, the fans may begin calling for a change of ownership, as they have done elsewhere in the NBA when they are unhappy with a team’s management and direction.
Time will tell.
d
Yes, you are probably exactly right. More of a D than a C team.* I gave them the benefit of the doubt, since they were the only Mediocre (losing) team to make it to the playoffs. There were actually 10 teams with worse records than the Heat. Overall, half of the teams in the NBA had losing records.
Elite “A” teams: Thunder, Cavaliers, Celtics, Rockets, Knicks
Competitive “B” teams: Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers, Pacers, T’ Wolves
Average “C” teams: Grizzlies, Warriors, Bucks, Pistons, Magic
Mediocre “D” teams: Kings, Hawks, Mavericks, Bulls, Heat
Inferior “F” teams: Blazers, Suns, Spurs, Raptors, Nets, 76ers, Pelicans, Hornets, Wizards, Jazz
Several teams listed as mediocre and inferior had losing records this season because of multiple injuries. They are actually much better teams than their records would indicate. Orlando, Dallas, San Antonio, Philadelphia and New Orleans immediately come to mind.
Note that 4 of the preceding 5 teams had high lottery picks #1 Dallas, #2 San Antonio, #3 Philadelphia, #7 New Orleans and also #14 San Antonio. With the return of players who were injured plus the addition of top draft picks, all 5 teams should rise above this season’s levels in 2025-2026.
*With Jimmy Butler playing the way he was in late 2023-2024 and early 2024-2025, Miami was no better than an average (C) team. This is despite the fact Miami lost fewer player days due to injuries than most of the D and F teams.
great lebron post my gm .mavs healthy move to b spurs healthy prob c
If 100% healthy…New Orleans at least C, Philadelphia at least B and Orlando possibly B.
Thanks heat.
Wanna see something funny and sad at the same time?
Nba draft is rigged, how is it that the top 3 teams picking, when healthy are playoff teams, none of them deserve those picks. Dallas doesn’t the number 1 pick after trading away luka for street clothes. Ad and Flagg sounds like better compensation for the luka trade. Spurs somehow lucked into a core of wemby, castle, and now harper in consecutive years. Also freaking Philly gets the 3rd pick after trusting the process spending money to get an over the hill pg, still got lowry,and injury prone embiid, and Young ascending players Maxey, and McCain. You can’t make this up, Adam silver got some explaining to do.
I’m happy for the Mavs. They can thank Mia for not tanking coz that draft could’ve been Heat’s. I’m satisfied coz habitual tankers didn’t get that #1 pick but sucks its not ours.
I feel the same way minus the happy for mavs part.
agreed. As much as I hate the Mavs and Sixers landing top-3, this is a well deserved outcome for teams that have spent multiple years tanking, like the Wizards, Jazz, and Raptors
I’m generally not a conspiracy person, but I have the distinct feeling that even if Miami had gotten that 11th slot, the Mavs would still have ended up with the #1 pick.
agree big
Another reason why Micky needs to remove Pat. That pick could have been franchise altering. But instead we got ‘valuable’ playoff experience.
Miami may not be the Wizards, but they are most definitely a poverty franchise at this point.
Poverty franchise? They’ve been to the Conference Finals 3 times and the Finals 2 times in the past 5 years. There are franchises that haven’t had that much success in their entire history. Heat fans are some of the most entitiled, spoiled fans in the nba
You are correct. The last time the Knicks won the championship was 1973. The Pacers came to the NBA in 1976. They have never won a NBA championship. In other words, those 2 teams combined have not won a championship in 101 years (52 + 49).
Yeah let’s hang on to the past, what have the Mia heat done recently? Two first round exits back 2 back with a murky future. Now they aren’t a poverty franchise but it sure seems headed that way! People can complain say it’s rigged say Mia wouldn’t have gotten that far up blah blah blah all that matters is Mia needed that pick and instead made the playoffs only to get slaughtered by a bad overhyped team because Mia has no athletic 2 way players but relies on players like Tyler Herro (who’s a 6th man at his best) and should be nowhere near starting in big games such as the playoffs and players like bam who doesn’t have any heart whatsoever. If this was any other franchise heads would’ve rolled by now but instead where stuck living in the past glory of shit.
The past 5 years is pretty recent. Unless you think it is realistic to expect a team to go the Finals literally every season.
If you saw Riley’s presser, it’s pretty clear the Heat are rebuilding. They have to get under the repeater tax, shed some salary, and retool the roster.
They had a good run, now they have to rebuild it. Pretty standard operating procedure for the NBA. You literally cannot name a single franchise that hasn’t gone through this cycle. If the Heat fail the rebuild, then you can start to complain. I would say last season can count as year 1.
Rebuilding requires assets. Miami has very few. They can trade Bam, sure. Herro’s value across the league has never been high, and he needs an extension.
Riley’s presser gave me less confidence, not more. And it’s why I stand firmly behind we are now a poverty franchise. Hoping and clawing for a low seed in the playoffs to sell a few more tickets, but no real threat.
Riley made it pretty clear that he views this team as a rebuild. He talked about all the times he’s rebuilt the teams in the past. He talked about getting below the tax now so they could avoid the repeater tax in the future.
And sure, it’s easy for you to just sit here on the internet and say this is a poverty franchise. Say whatever you want. It’s just not true. If two years of missing the finals is your definition of a poverty franchise, then there are 30 poverty franchises in the NBA
They’ve been the following in place in the East over the last eleven years (post LeBron):
8th (10th)
8th (7th)
8th
1st
6th
5th
10th
6th
9th
3rd
10th
They’ve had some playoff success for sure. Playoff Jimmy was a real thing, but also one of those finals runs was the Disney one. Not a lot of weight to go behind that imo. The other one was as an 8 seed, that almost blew the leagues only 3-0 lead, and got dominated in the Finals.
I’ll also point out that those conference finals and finals teams had Jimmy Butler. Miami doesn’t anymore. And because of Pat’s mismanagement, Miami got a heap of trash for its best player. Not just a discount, but pennies on the dollar.
Today, Miami is 15th in cap room (aka they have none), they hold a late first round pick. A second fiddle who regressed a bit this year. A good scoring 2 who has no defensive ability.
And some middling to below average young players to hope become stars.
Today? This is a poverty franchise.
oh man, so many holes in this argument it’s hard to know where to begin.
First of all, your comment about the “Disney” trip to the Finals. I don’t remember you being on HHH during that run. But for those of us that were watching the Heat make a miracle run to the Finals during the darkest days of the pandemic, it was an awesome experience.
Next, it was very convenient for you to start counting exactly 11 years ago. Just out of curiosity, what happened the 4 years previously? It’s like someone feeding me a gourmet Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, and then I start complaining that we never cook because I’ve eaten nothing but leftovers since Friday.
And then there is the idea that Miami had all of their success because they had Jimmy Butler. I love Jimmy, but he’s only made it past the second round of the playoffs 4 times in his career. Three times it was with Pat Riley. The only other time, he was a bench player that lost the series 4-1 (to Pat Riley and the Miami Heat). Pat Riley, by contrast has taken the Heat to the Conference Finals 12 times, the NBA Finals 7 times, and that’s not counting the 9 times he went the the WCF with the Lakers, or the 4 titles. Based on all that information, I’m dubious about your claim about who took who to the Finals.
So yes, today the Miami Heat are in a rebuild. Just like many other teams that have many years of playoff success before their best player ages out. Some people are grateful for the success. Some people just want to complain. I’ll just say that I’m glad I’m not like you.
Hahahahahahahaha! LMAO!!
But to be fair no one knows what the future holds at that time. I love the fight, the confidence in these Heat team, yes including you Pat! Believing they can have a deep run in these playoffs. Moving on…
https://www.espn.ph/nba/story/_/id/45109801/sources-giannis-antetokounmpo-explore-best-fits-milwaukee
Pat’s outta touch, and what good is fight without talent? Our scrub roster needed a talent infusion.
And if any of ya’ll have faith in Pat at this point, I question your sanity.
He strikes out far more than he hits. His best hits have been with mid 1st round draft picks, but he gives them away like they are worthless.
I question my sanity too. But as ive said a dozen times over, we are at the mercy of the godfather. Unless anyone here can go and replace him.
Anyone that doesn’t understand that losing this pick is a very bad day for our team is either kidding, or worse.
Having said that, my position remains what’s done is done. Can’t change it now. But it sucks.
And tbh it’s a fireable offense but this (incompetent) is what it has become franchise isn’t going to fire anyone no heads will roll and they will run it back to be a perennial playin team as long as it’s here (also didn’t hear pat bat an eye at being in the playin as long as its inception) but incompetence is going to lead this team into mediocrity for the foreseeable future
We can now only imagine what if…
Ware, Bam, Flagg, Tyler, Mitchell
Then trade a player or two for a backup center and pf. Boom! Instant contender and perhaps champions after 2 seasons.
Ok the dream is over…lets move on lol
We wouldn’t have had to trade for a backup center. With pick #20, we could have had Fleming, Wolf, or Broome.