The Miami Heat enter the 2025-26 NBA season without much expectation, being projected to win 37.5 games by the consensus projected win totals for a myriad of sports betting markets. Miami is coming off a 37-45 season, its worst in a decade. So them going under their projected total would not be ideal. Will they? Let’s examine three reasons why they could, and three why they won’t.
Reasons For:
East is weaker:
Depending on how you view the Heat, they’re either not much better, or not much worse this year than they were heading into last season.
The same can’t be said about the Eastern Conference, which is noticeably worse after Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard all ruptured their achilles last spring. The Celtics subsequently traded Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis while letting Luke Kornet and Al Horford walk. Indiana also lost Myles Turner, albeit to the Milwaukee Bucks.
The bottom of the East — presumably the Brooklyn Nets (lost Cam Johnson; young), Washington Wizards (young) and Charlotte Hornets (also young) — is also bad. We will discuss a few of the teams that improved below, but as a whole, the Heat should find plenty of winnable games against Eastern Conference competition this season. There’s no excuse.
If youth movement “pops,” it could lead to positive results:
In the Heat’s first full season without Jimmy Butler, they can prioritize their young players’ development. That doesn’t mean they’ll tank. That also doesn’t mean they’ll ditch their veterans entirely. Though there will be more runway for, say, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson to endure the bumps and bruises that young players inevitably experience as they continue to mold as players. As they get more playing time, the more they’ll grow as players. If each can take the necessary steps for improvement in 2025-26, as well as a few of the Heat’s other role players (Dru Smith, Davion Mitchell, etc.), this season, the Heat will be in good shape in the short- and long-term.
Clutch game (positive) regression?:
Death. Taxes. The Miami Heat playing clutch games.
You know the deal by now … right?!
Miami appeared in 42 clutch games — defined as games that have at least one possession where the point differential is five points or fewer in the final five minutes. They won just 14 of them, finishing with a ghastly minus-16.2 NET in those situations, third-worst league-wide.
No team blew more fourth-quarter leads (21) and more double-digit leads (22) than the Miami Heat last year. They were good enough to build them up, but weren’t good enough to finish them. If you flip the result of just three of those games, they win 40 games. By virtue of positive regression in a weakened East, they can win 39 … right?!
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Reasons Against:
Health with key star already a concern:
The Heat will be without Tyler Herro for the start of the 2025-26 season after he underwent foot surgery. Herro played a career-high 77 games last season, one year after playing a career-low 42 games. Bam Adebayo’s one of the league’s best two-way bigs; Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins are also both (fringe) star talents.
Though the Heat may not have the top-end talent to compete with the talent-rich NBA, especially early in the season, when their schedule is most daunting. Miami’s two-best players last year — Adebayo and Herro — missed nine combined games and won just 37. If you’re betting the over, you’re betting on your team to stay healthy — and the Heat are off to a bad start in that department.
They lost their biggest source of shooting gravity:
Herro’s brief absence hurts the Heat’s shooting, which I illustrated here. But the Heat lost Duncan Robinson to Detroit. While the team’s offense each of the last three years had poor spacing, Robinson’s presence on the floor helped tremendously. Not a single soul commanded more attention than him — and now that’s lost. Miami doesn’t have enough volume shooting with Herro — let alone without him — to make up for that. And in today’s NBA, it’s a requirement that you have high volume, efficient 3-point shooting littered throughout your roster if you want to consistently win.
Other teams around them improved plenty, too:
The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers didn’t improve. We know that. But the “wide open East” is only wide open for good teams, not mediocre ones.
The New York Knicks (Guerschon Yabusele, Jordan Clarkson), Orlando Magic (Desmond Bane), Atlanta Hawks (Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kristaps Porzingis) and Milwaukee Bucks (Myles Turner, Cole Anthony) all improved. The Cavaliers are still going to be lethal; the Philadelphia 76ers could (maybe???) be slightly healthier; Indiana’s still deep enough to compete for a top-6 seed.
Miami improved, but so did half of the East. Obviously, you still have to play the games. Things change over the course of an 82-game season; games aren’t won on paper, they’re won on the scoreboard. But I’m dubious the Heat will automatically thrust themselves out of the play-in, all things considered. I’ll need to see it to believe it.
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I’m down for a 42-40 season, predicted it a few times. We are better, but not much. It will be likely another play in experience.
I know the consensus is we will roll with what we got and see if it works out. I would prefer making a move now. I don’t see how a team can take so much pride in never tanking but be perfectly okay with mediocrity two years and running. Mediocrity is essentially a mini-tank without the no pain/ no gain upside potential.
heat vs grizz last preseason game?
14 of 42 in clutch games? yikes! making it worse – 21 fourth quarter leads blown with 22 games leading by double digits also blown! ugly!! so that top 7 defense last season was really not good by Heat standard. and that’s another factor to consider, will they defend well?
first year w/o jimmy.like or hate him like we all do now he moved the needle.got some nice players but no stars.end of games whos the go to guy,why no run for goldin he seems to move ok and he scored alot at fau.precious not big enough to guard center
Butler definitely moved the needle in his first 4 seasons with the Heat. In the last two, not really. And although he did help the Warriors, he was no difference maker after Curry got injured. He simply got old, can’t do anymore what he would do in the first 4 seasons. Not consistently and not enough. That’s why it was the right call to not give him the extension. We wouldn’t be any better with him now (and we wouldn’t have Wiggins, Powell and Mitchell). We could have and should have traded him sooner, though. But that’s history now.
P.S. Heat used #20 pick received in Butler trade to draft Jakucionis. Powell was different deal and time.
You’re right! I wasn’t sure whether this pick was ours or aquired in this trade. Good catch. Ultimately it is not such a bad haul for an aging player past his prime who has lot his joy. He’s no superstar anymore (certainly doesn’t deserve 50 mil/year anymore).
Powell was a different deal, but we used Kyle Anderson to get him (who was acquired in the Butler trade) along with K Love, that’s why I included him among the players we got for Butler. I believe also Mitchell was acquired in a separate following trade using PJ Tucker.
Yup. Makes sense.it will be hard for Heat to win 45-50 games with the current roster, especially if no trades are made soon. Unless the younger players make substantial improvements in their performances it will be difficult for Miami to win over 42 games. If any serious injuries are suffered by front court players…
fogetabowded.