The Miami Heat entered Friday with the possibility of moving up to No. 12 in odds for the 2026 NBA Draft lottery. But that open door has now been slammed shut.
As a result of the Phoenix Suns’ 111-96 win over the Golden State Warriors, the Heat officially own the 13th-best lottery odds ahead of draft night — only ahead of the Charlotte Hornets, who eliminated them last week.
What are the Miami Heat’s odds of earning each pick?:
With Miami owning the 13th-best odds, they are only eligible to land six picks ahead of the draft. Here are their odds of earning each:
- No. 14 pick: 2.3 percent
- No. 13: 92.9 percent
- No. 4: 1.4 percent
- No. 3: 1.2 percent
- No. 2: 1.1 percent
- No. 1: 1.0 percent
As a result, Miami has just a 4.7 percent chance of earning a top-4 pick in the upcoming draft. Comparatively, if they moved up to No. 12, they would have had a 7.2 percent chance at a top-4 pick; that’s a 53 percent increase just for one spot, which is fairly significant.
The Heat have never moved up in the draft lottery in 11 previous lotteries. They have moved down six times, including multiple spots just twice (1989, 1991).
How this draft class benefits Heat:
The top of the draft — spearheaded by AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer — is loaded. But this class has a surplus of quality guards and wings, which the Heat needs.
Miami’s biggest need exists in the frontcourt, but they are at least one wing short. They also need more positional size and two-way versatility in the backcourt, which doesn’t exist outside of Kasparas Jakucionis and Pelle Larsson. Norman Powell and Tyler Herro are one-way scoring specialists, while Davion Mitchell and Dru Smith are undersized.
We’re not in the Heat’s war room, so who they may be targeting may be different than what I or others may think. Though what we can all agree on is that they need talent — regardless of the position — and they will have two bites at the apple to infuse more youth into their good-not-great core.
The 2026 draft lottery will be on May 10.
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uncan out there with all them athletes is like me at a cochella concert doesnt look right.
I like the Spurs. Always a big Pop fan.
5957 go oregoners beat those cheating spurs
wemby is spectacular can he stay healthy and why isnt he a wizard adam
Doesn’t matter why, he’s a Spurs player.
system wrong spurs fan is the point.i like lebrons system 1-4 have their own lottery 5-9 and so on.dallas should never be allowed to get flagg pete rozelle is very very unhappy like yours truly.flagg should be a wizard or wemby,the draft was to provide competitive balance its failing in the nba.go wizards.f the cheatin spurs.
Poetic justice. Teams that tank shouldn’t be rewarded. Good for Spurs, good for Dallas. If we didn’t make the mistake of getting into the playoffs last season, WE might have been the one with Flagg. And I am 1000% sure that if the Heat had gotten Flagg, you would not be saying it was fixed. And if in the very unlikely case that we move up this year and get a top 4 pick, you will definitely not be complaining that the system is fixed. As long as something goes your way, you’re good. If it goes against you, it’s a conspiracy.
thats kinda true whatever helps the heat im for.i dont like this bs draft system.worse gets first is what its suppose to be.just think if dallas didnt trade luka and would have resigned brunson and kyrie and ad were healthy.
Worse on purpose shouldn’t get best draft pick. Hopefully, they come up with a better system next season. Tankers should not be rewarded.
if tim duncan doesnt inhale funny smelling stuff i would be shocked
Good for him. Are you one of those party pooper types heat?
hell no a big fan especially pre wife but as a player he looked like such a clean cut guy nerdy guy.now he looks bob marleyish
That’s how you are supposed to look when you retire and can let your hair down. Are you one of those Poindexter types heat?
no i havent had a haircut since collegemy hairs long to .im a woodstock child,but to see duncan like this was cool but surprising .he came across a real clean cut guy when he was a player.how bout the ben wallace look that was interesting.
You may be a Woodstock child in spirit, but not in era. You were about 12 when Woodstock happened.
that is true rc little young to go i was in florida but was well aware of it and the vietnam war.that is the way ive rolled thru life with that freak mentality.
I was nearly 17, but I lived in Arizona. It was a bit far. I was even younger (15) for its precursor two years earlier, The 1967 Monterey Pop Festival. Here’s a partial list of the performers:
Johnny Rivers, The Association, Simon & Garfunkle, Big Brother & the Holding Company, Booker T and the MG’s, Canned Heat, Jefferson Airplane, Otis Redding, Steve Miller, The Byrds, Buffalo Springfield, Country Joe and the Fish, Grateful Dead, The Jimi Henmdrix Experience, The Mamas & the Papas, The Who, Ravi Shankar, Hugh Masekela.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnIFB6wQy0w&list=RDxnIFB6wQy0w&start_radio=1
1
robert williams when not hurt i believe should be center #1.go oregoners.f the cheating spurs.didnt they turn the air off to choke out lebron and wade
If elephants had wings they could fly.
Yes sir
thems have to be some vlad goldin wings very strong dont think they could be kelel ware wings
deni is what jjj can become?
besides fox andwemby rest of team very very young
comeon klingen use your bulk on wemby
klingen gotta beat up wemby hes prob got 100 lbs on him
france on israel wow wemby dont injure their best player
Ironically, Detroit is the one team Miami probably could have competed against, if the Heat had been playing up to snuff. Pistons only had 2 players in double figures. Thompson, Duren, Robinson and Stewart scored 28 points between them.
Orlando has been dormant all season long and has finally started playing up to their potential within the last couple of weeks. With their youth, length and defense, they may be hard for Detroit or Cleveland vs Toronto winner to beat.
franz and paulo were out at the beginning franz for at least 1/2 the season.whos det second scorer,durens an alley oop type player.dets in trouble they needed to make a trade for a scorer.
comeon oregoner.go israel.f san antonio fn cheaters
#1 seeds in trouble orlando healthy go magic .gonna be great series
det doesnt have enough offense
wow det orl some series wow best series by far
det orl gonna be great physical series
det needed a secondary scorer next to cade derozan would have been perfect
pats drafting the wrong type of athlete hes living in the 60s thats ok so am i
uncan trying to deny carter on a slam lol
Detroit and Orlando are two physical teams. It’s gonna be a dogfight
yes except for uncan he looks misplaced out there
suggs great athlete shot not so great
banchero is what bam needs to become.a dawg mentality
unc u fouled stfu lol
take unc out wow same sht diff location,just gave wagner the bump on and 1
bane for kcp where was pat what cruise ship was he on at the time
orl weakness at pg.i like when suggs is out and they go big
go orlando f uncan and his d
suns heat would be a great playoff series it would go 7
sga for pg what does pat have up his sleeve
i hate watching booker play my stomach hurts ,wonder if pats watching the game
I mean between Booker and Super star Jalen Green this current score is shocking. lol.
who would u rather have than bam of our great heaters 35 35 last two games whos capable of that
Jimmy in 2022 had a 42 and 56 in back to back playoff games.
Herro rocked 3 straight 30+ games last year.
Super stars
Franchise cornerstones…lol
playoffs when it matters not versus the generals
jordan pippen team would struggle with okc
do the suns win a quarter
No chance. They gonna get spanked even in garbage time. Which is pretty much underway already.
not worth watching i think orl will give duncans team a run for their $$
Let’s be honest with each other. There is a huge disparity in talent between elite teams like OKC, San Antonio, Detroit, Boston, Denver, NY, Lakers, Houston and the other NBA teams.
Miami is light years away from being competitive with those teams. One ss player alone won’t get them there. Riley keeps lying to himself and Heat fans year after year by pretending that it will…then he fails to attract one.
wembayama jokic on the heat might get us there they are franchise changers.but realistically u build the team with draft picks your looking at lots mediocre years unless u hit on a ss or 2.id rather trade for a known disgruntled ss (greek) ,draft picks are unknown commodities same as football.anyway to get a ss u do it.they make the diff between good and great.a true ss will make our medicore players better
SS free agent maybe. Not if you have to gut your team and give away your draft picks to trade for one. Several of the elite teams got to where they are through intelligent drafting of lottery players AND smart trades.
Miami hasn’t had any lottery picks since Herro in 2019 and has only made a few good trades since Butler as well as a few bad and mediocre ones.
true but with jimmy we almost got 2 rings.w/o jimmy no shot for sht.so here we are with a 500 team.so whats our next step or two or three
Almost is not the objective. Winning championships is. Next step is to start at step 1. There are no shortcuts. There are no silver bullets. Need to rebuild the old fashion way. One step and one year at a time.
Start with core group (e.g., Bam, Ware, Jaquez, Larsson, Mitchell, Jakucionis, Gardner, 2026 1st round pick, 2026 2nd round pick) get rid of those who are not part of future, gradually fill/turn over staff via draft, trades, free agency and developing unsigned players with potential. If a ss drops in your lap along the way, go for it if it will get you over the hump. Otherwise, pass until team is ready to go whale hunting.
how many whales are there in nba would u say 10 15,most are tied up with current team for a while.wemby sga jovic antman best of the whales more than likely will stay on their teams.can u win a chip w/o a whale prob not so nothing means anything till u get a whale correct.
what it says that riley has players that are not attractive to other gms,dame was screaming i want to go to miami.ja also.kd would have liked to play here i believe.if your not going to part with bam who else would anybody want..if pat would have drafted better or made better trades we wouldnt be in this terrible position.stuck in the middle bad place to be unless your making a song
jalen green brooks for old kd suns won that deal
The Suns are the 8th seed. Maybe they won the trade because in a couple years KD won’t be playing, but you gotta stop with these Jalen Green fanboying posts. He’s mid. The suns are mid. They won 5 more games than the Heat. That shouldn’t be the goal.
35 35 whos the last heater to do that
okc suns what a mismatch lets see jalen green vs okc last two games 36 35 pts.id love to get jalen green on the heat.i think hes gonna be really good going forward
Game over here. Boston is dominant. Philly not able to apply the highly athletic, quick hands, heavy pressure defense against the C’s, like they did on Orlando. What is left is a poor three point shooting team that posed no threat today. It’s so important to keep perspective about teams that look so good against lesser competition and remember that the good teams play on a totally different level.
maxeys playing by himself.what a great great player he is pat didnt think so
As if you knew at the time. I give you a chance every year lately to tell us who the Heat should take instead of the one they pick. 20/20 hindsight is always perfect.
i have no clue rc im not a big college hoops fan.ill watch little bit of tournament and the finals ,i am paid for my posting.there use to be a guy on here maybe jnicho 20or somebody else that really knew the college guys.nobody now has that knowledge
I think I remember Jnicho from Suns days. Was he a Dragic fan too?
Jnicho was a great poster. Big Tennessee fan. He finally gave up here because of ‘differences’. You are a lot like him – objective, analytical, fair minded.
does phil get a game maybe one when tatum goes 5 for 20.tatum can shoot u out of any game hes a chucker
how do u lose a top 10 player and dont miss a heart beat,bost i thought would be a miami heat playin team
its hard on the stomach watching maxey play wonder if pats watching game
This Philly/Boston series is fascinating as there are many underlying aspects of team building and the role of superstars in carrying a team at play. So far, Boston is functioning extremely well.
My take, and it’s still early, is the obvious, that the C’s have two superstars and Philly without Embiid only has one. George is now only a very good player, not much better than Derrick White, not really a difference maker anymore. The secondary players are important, but they only make a difference between winning and losing when there is a real glaring weakness in their collective play.
If Embiid comes back it could change things.
phily hasnt won a series since 82 mismatch 30.think maxeys best player on ct however.embid at this stage of career wont matter
It would be interesting viewing, but you may be right. Embiid gets tired too fast now and then he becomes as much of a debit as an asset. Plus, it takes a long time to heal from an appendectomy.
phily bost only in name sounds good teams on diff levels
They haven’t won a series against Boston since ‘82, correct.
PG has never been much of a difference maker, like Harden. Zero championships for both. I don’t feel much different about KD either. The only time he won was when he joined one of the great dynasties of the century.
kd might be top 10 player all time.hes injured for the playoffs so hes ueseless if hes not playing during jimmys fav time of year.harden in playoff always suks 1st ballet hofer.pg was good in ind hasnt been a diff maker post ind.no hof for pg
Thank you. I learned something today. I never knew Harden was a ballet dancer! (Or was that Durant?) 😆😆
kds a prima dona great scorer but more of one on one type player.hardens a much better passer than kd did u know that
Yes, I just didn’t know he was a dancer.
bros got rythym i was a decent disco dancer in the 70s
Ef en dout, uze spil shek. Werks fer me.
y
LOL
Biggest mistake of his career was leaving Warriors. Like Paradise Lost, he preferred to rule in hell rather than serve in heaven. GS could have had several more championships but KD’s ego couldn’t stand playing second fiddle to Steph. He hasn’t won Jack since then. He isn’t a team leader. He’s a selfish glory hog.
Exactly. He didn’t win anything before or since.
what a douche for leaving gsw wanted to start his own big 3 didnt work out to good.he stays gsw nobody was beating them even bam tyler teams prob would have lost to them
boston phily like orl mia
Miami heat should move on from dru smith nikola jovic send Myron Gardner jahmir young Trevor keels Keshad Johnson Vladislav Goldin back to the g league keep Herro powell Wiggins bam ware Mitchell Larsson Fontecchio Jaime jaquez jr Kasparas Jakucionis an sign Hannes Steinbach
herro no thanks fonzi no way the rest yes.depends on the price of wigg and norm both still above avg players.need younger and hopefully better than wigg or norm to get to top 6 team,currently top 10 with wigg norm not good enough
Top 10 in the East isn’t saying much, especially when the bottom 5 are gaining ground on the Heat.
In the NBA, if you aren’t moving forward/upgrading your roster every year, you are falling further and further behind.
If the NBA teams were separated into tiers, Heat would be in the tier just above lottery teams and trending down not up.
In the NBA, if you aren’t moving forward/upgrading your roster every year, you are falling further and further behind.dat is why u r the goat me and rc just shaking our heads on your greatness that we which to obtain one day
Unless they trade for a superstar level player, I don’t see much of those moves happening. I agree on Steinbach, though.
You lost me at keep Herro.
me 3 fonzi to almost as bad as jovic mip book it and heat have a chance versus cleve
last team should pick first like all the other sports.this ping ball sht behind stage spurs fishy.if a team wants to lose on purpose f that team so be it .make the draft like the other 3 sports.eliminate conspiracy theorists like yours truly
They use one of the most reputable companies on the planet, Ernst & Young, to oversee the process. I like that the worst tanking team has no guarantee of a top 4 pick. There will be a new process next season to further discourage tanking.
the draft is meant to get the worse team the best player sir.not the spurs the best player f the spurs.duncan admiral f them somethings fishy
The only thing fishy is your conspiracy theories. And I am 100% for any policy that discourages teams from deliberately tanking. This season had 10 teams losing 50 or more games. Unacceptable.
it was ok with the balls in the bowl u can see on live today.these days i believe its done behind popovichs closed doors being verified by ginobli parker duncan law firm
Sure, and the moon landing and Artemis missions were fake too.
The NBA should have mini lotteries for bottom 14 teams. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-14 teams should compete against each other for highest pick in each group. No way for late lottery 11-14 team to get lucky and pick at top of lottery. #11 is best they can do. Same with 6-10 teams. The best they can do is #6.
wow that makes lot of sense but when do u play the games.like that instead of fishy ping pong balls done behind pops secret door.washington should have wemby not pops team.ask pete rozelle the og of draft
He made no mention of any games being played, just a drawing for each group. And please contact Kyrie as you probably think the earth is flat too.
Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz and then ship Herro out of here
Ship jovic
You’d have to find a taker and that would be difficult. Only possibility might be Denver.
is there a denver in serbia?
No, but he’s not going to Serbia anyway. And, if by some (unlikely) miracle, he makes a Jaquez type turnaround, you will be saying “wow, who saw this coming?” just like you did with Jaquez.
I thought of that. Jokic is the only one who can get him over the funk he is in, if he can’t get over it himself.
Jovic with Herro to Memphis for Morant and rookie contract player. Works for me.
wish u were the gm of the grizzlies no not really gm of the heat
Sad that I’m more excited about the lottery than I was for the play-in game
Good luck to your Blazers. West has tougher teams. Talk about a gauntlet.
Deni is a beast, but I don’t think they’re about to take out San Antonio, Denver, and OKC in three straight series. I’ll be happy to see them win a couple games in the first round. If they can make it to round 2, it will be the best Blazers season of the decade (and just as a reminder, the Heat have made the ECF three times and the NBA Finals twice this decade).
Yes, there are places that have had it much worse than us. It’s just great to feel the playoff atmosphere for the Blazers.
yes but were headed in downward trajection.with spurs okc denv gl
My lucky number is 13. They should let me pick… maybe the next Giannis or Brunson.
amen thompson to that
Maybe Silver will give the Heat some favor and gift em with one of top 3 after all the league has done, or didn’t do to this franchise.
Or maybe not (more likely)
Last season was the time for that
Well, let’s hope we make an excellent choice, and at thirteen you probably want to choose the best fit for the team, as opposed to the best athlete.
My logic there is that when you go for the best athlete you are looking for the superstar and they are a little less likely to be found at thirteen. Now, if in the improbable event we move up, by all means go for best athlete.,And, again, you look to a balance of both parameters on some level, regardless of pick position.
But, if we do get the thirteenth pick, I do hope we acquire an athletic, 6’10-11”ish forward, a two way player who has already shown some level of an offensive game. That would be, in my opinion, our area of greatest need, with the only caveat being that this comment is made before any old players leave or new players come into the organization. If we lose Andrew, it becomes even more necessary.
Excuse my redundancy, but more than ever, they can’t afford to miss on this pick. There are also a few good candidates for backup center at 41.
I agree. I would like to see sign and trade for Powell, and trade of Herro, Wiggins and Jovic. Should be able to get a couple of seconds and a first…plus cap space and maybe a promising young player.
Treat 2026-2027 like a gap year and be able to keep 2027 if Heat is in lottery. Then 1) go whale hunting or 2) keep picks and draft and trade for young players and 3) continue rebuild.
What you just described is what I believe should happen. It’s our best path available, even though it means the next two to three years will be hard to get thru. Will we go that route?, I doubt it. Riley seems inclined to going for the quick fix.
And that’s the intrigue. You never know when we can pull off a Powell trade or reel in a Butler. It is exciting as one big move can right a few wrongs. But, it requires luck, or fleecing someone. It’s the kind of low percentage approach that only a GM who has no fear of getting axed can take.
I agree with everything except that it would take 2 or 3 years. If nothing else, the team will be more fun to watch with hard working, exciting new players. Maybe they wouldn’t even make the play-in the first year, but they’re not going to be the Wizards of the past few years either.
Hopefully they wouldn’t make play-in so they can keep 2027 lottery pick.
gap year rc will be alone my himself game day posting after game 30
Yup, only real fans will be here. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
As long as team is trending in right direction, true fans will follow. Fair weather fans not so much.
Amen brother!
#13-14 is a very good spot to be in a great draft like this. And still have the small 4.8% chance to move up to top 4. I think it’s very important the Heat draft for upside in this draft
At the 11-15 range you can find MVP level talents. SGA was thought to not have top end athleticism and went #11 after Collin Sexton. Kawhi and Giannis both were #15, thought to lack upside on offense
Need athleticism to be successful, but the biggest mistake teams make in drafting according to Jerry West is drafting based primarily on athletic measurables and hoping that basketball instincts and feel for the game will develop later
Some of the best players on the planet are not athletes in traditional way.
Great player in this league has basketball intelligence, working habits, basketball skills, and if possible, athletism, in that order.
So we need smart, hard working player, with skills. If he can jump, even better.
Yes!
Agree somewhat, but skills can be developed through a career. You can draft someone as a bad shooter like Kawhi, and they can develop through hard work and natural talent into a great shooter. Athleticism and instincts/feel for the game are much more fixed characteristics.
Athleticism is very important – the scouting mistake West talked about was teams drafting based on athletic test results and physical profile only. A lot of players get drafted who may not even like basketball based on this.
There are opportunities every year to draft guys who fall because they are labeled as lacking elite athleticism like SGA, or as unathletic like Draymond and Jokic. Those labels of course don’t mean anything, but they were the predraft consensus on those players.
In the draft every year I also think mistakes are made putting so much emphasis on college shooting numbers – this was how Reed Sheppard was picked over Castle in 2024 who should have gone #1
I know, its important, but not as important as other things. As I said, players like Luka or Jokic can hardly jump. Even SGA is not an extreme athlete.
My point is more that what gets labeled as athleticism is often misleading. You can’t be an All-NBA player and not be athletic.
SGA’s mom was an Olympic 400m sprinter, the idea in that draft that he was only a solid/average athlete but not a great one never made any sense. His game is so smooth he looked slow to some people, and Collin Sexton went ahead of him because he was considered the better guard prospect because of his explosive athleticism, which was clearly wrong even then. Same with Luka not going #1 that year and falling to #3
Valid points. What 2 or 3 players do you feel would be good fits at 13?
I can agree with that. My comments are about traditional athletism, like jumping high, running fast, good coordination, things you need for dunking, blocking, that sort of things, which are popular among fans.