Why Heat still believe Nikola Jovic may have bounce-back season

We’ve had months to reflect on what was another tumultuous Miami Heat season, culminating in a fourth-straight play-in. But the biggest black eye was Nikola Jovic’s regression after an encouraging third season.

Jovic, 23, averaged just 7.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists across 47 games last season. He shot just 36.6 percent from the floor, 26.9 percent from 3-point range and 68.3 percent from the free-throw line. Yet, the Heat still believe his best basketball is ahead of him.

“Eventually, that production is going to translate in the NBA,” a Heat assistant told Spotrac’s Keith Smith last month. “We have to get him healthy and keep him healthy. The talent is obviously there.”

Does Nikola Jovic fit better in this context?

Even though Jovic only played in 107 games over his first three seasons due to myriad injuries and not receiving enough opportunity, he was productive. The 6-foot-10 wing averaged 8.7 points and 3.8 rebounds across 21.1 minutes, shooting 45.0 percent from the floor, 37.0 percent from 3-point range and 80.4 percent from the charity stripe.

On a per-75-possession basis, his numbers over that span equate to 15.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals. For a scalable player with a healthy amount of upside, that’s good production. Not to mention, Jovic has grown exponentially as a defender, developing into one of the team’s best isolation defenders, where he can guard at least 2-3 possessions.

However, it came crashing down last year — months after signing a brand new $62.4 million extension. He never found his footing, and sulked when his shot wasn’t going through the rim. Jovic’s on-off numbers weren’t catastrophic, but his impact waned. Jovic’s struggles became mental.

His biggest key will now be being able to put the ball through the orange cylinder. Jovic’s role will be minimized alongside newly acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, although I believe he would function well as a secondary playmaker off the bench, given the Heat’s lack of ball-handling.

Not all growth is linear. Now is Jovic’s chance to grow; he’s still only 23 and flashes a tantalizing skillset as a complementary piece. The Serbian’s been unable to put all of the puzzle pieces together, but 2026-27 offers a strong opportunity to do so when given the runway — make the coaches have to play you.