The Miami Heat are slowly, but surely getting ramped up as the Oct. 21 season opener approaches. They concluded their second preseason game on Thursday — a 128-118 win over the Pelicans — with the starters playing in just the first half.
Who were a few winners and losers? Let’s examine!
Winner: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Skinny: I didn’t include Antetokounmpo in the preseason opener because it felt fairly obvious. I couldn’t omit him for two straight games. Antetokounmpo tallied a game-high 18 points with four rebounds, four assists and one steal in 18 minutes. He shot 8-of-13 from the floor, with all of his makes coming in the paint. Per status quo, Antetokounmpo dominated in transition and is averaging 13.5 points on 67.6 percent true shooting. He’s been everything as advertised — and then some.
Loser: Ryan Conwell
Skinny: Conwell, the Heat’s No. 37 overall draft choice, still hasn’t gotten off the ground quite yet. He missed all four of his attempts in Thursday’s win and is 0-for-6 so far in preseason. He’s had difficulty not only finding where he wants to get off his shot, but his balance when he does. This is not a long-term worry, as I expect him to adjust as time passes.
Winner: Davion Mitchell
Skinny: Mitchell has been outstanding this preseason — especially on Thursday. He finished with nine points and seven assists — to just one turnover — in 20 minutes. He is pushing the rock at every opportunity, spearheading the Heat’s transition attack. He’s also been a bulldog at the point-of-attack. It may look chaotic, but Mitchell’s been in full control on both ends of the floor.
Loser: Vlad Goldin
Skinny: It’s difficult to be a “loser” in games you don’t play — but that’s part of the reason why Goldin is. This was a big preseason for him to reassure why he’s a two-way player. He has just six points and one rebound to his name through two games and was a DNP-CD on Thursday.
Winner: Myron Gardner
Skinny: What allowed Gardner to make the roster last season was his energy in defense. That’s exactly what he’s shown so far this preseason, scoring 11 points on 3-of-5 shooting from deep with four rebounds, four assists and three steals against New Orleans. You have to be aware of Gardner at all times. Beyond that, you have to respect his shooting, which could be a real asset if he gets any run in the rotation.
Winner: Tre Donaldson
Skinny: The Heat have an intriguing point guard in the pipeline, and his name is Tre Donaldson. The 22-year-old rookie signed with Miami at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft, and has been nothing but impressive since. Through two preseason games, Donaldson has averaged 9.0 points and 2.5 assists on 46.2/33.3/66.7 shooting splits. He’s not fazed by ball pressure, makes quick reads and defends at a respectable level. I’m a complete buyer in his long-term outcome.
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It is clear that Miami’s biggest strength this year will be defense. It should be one of the top 5 teams, at minimum. Furthermore, I believe Miami’s offense will also be a strength. The team has a variety of offensive weapons. If I were to project potential scoring averages this season for each player, depending on minutes played, they would probably be as follows:
I know Miami won’t average 150+ ppg. Nonetheless, I do believe if Miami’s defense can consistently keep opponents to under 110 ppg, the team has the potential to win 55 or more games this season.
Interesting take. That gives between 152-184 ppg, but in about 320 minutes. If we reduce that with 240 minutes, the averages should be something like that.
or 118.8-141.57 in 240 mpg
PPG Projections
As I indicated, I do not expect Miami to score 150+ ppg just as 141.57 ppg is not realistic in your projection. The point I was trying to make is that Miami has more than enough offense to compete. Its second unit should be one of the higher scoring group in the league. It’s the team’s defense that will make the difference.
Points Scored
Last year, Miami was the number one team in pace and number 2 team in scoring at 120.9 ppg, second only to Denver’s 122.1 ppg.
Points Allowed
Miami was #22 in points allowed at 118.6 ppg. None of the teams ranked #23-#30 made the play-ins. The top 6 team defenses allowed less than 110.0 ppg. OKC was #1 at 106.5 ppg allowed.
Point differentials
Miami was #13 in point differentials at +2.33 ppg. Only 5 teams had point differentials higher than 6.0. OKC was #1 at 11.15 ppg, followed by San Antonio, Boston, Detroit and New York.
2026-2027 goals
In order for Miami to go far into the playoffs this season, it will need to score at least what it did last year (120.9 ppg) and allow less than 110.0 ppg (similar to OKC’s 2025-2026 numbers). I think both targets are realistic and attainable.
in order for miami to go deep in playoffs greek and bam will have to be healthy.if greek gets nicked up perrish the thought .imo we are not champ level maybe ec semis but with a bc of pelle klay dru dav thats not gonna cut it vs brunsons maxeys sgas of the world.we’re close need to pull off a deal i would love to get jrue holiday back with greek and port of miami,imo we get jrue we are right there with the big boys
It would probably take Wiggins, Larsson and a pick. I wouldn’t do it.
I wouldn’t do it either. Wiggins has structured his contract to be a HUGE plus next season, one that will help the team add talent or extend Mitchell. And he seems to the perfect complement to this Bam Giannis lineup.
I wouldn’t stab Wiggins in the back. He wants to play in Miami and took a significant pay cut to prove it. At some point there needs to be loyalty. Some folks want to win at all costs and for them everyone is expendable. I’m not one of them.
Oh, forgot that Pelle cannot be traded this season after getting the new contract. I’m glad about that.
I agree with your assessment. It’s far too early in the preseason to glean much but hazy impressions of what the regular season will be like. Those impressions, along with some of the established knowledge about the players we have, do look promising. But how promising remains to be told.
I will say that we are clearly better than last year and perhaps some of that phenomenon where the Heat seem to be able to bring out the best in their players, particularly the marginal ones, may become apparent as the season unfolds in both the players coming in and those going out.
I will say that we are clearly better than last year……
Well, don’t go so far out on that limb, lol.
Like you, and all of us really, I don’t know how this season will end . I’m confident that we will be at least top 6. It’s not impossible to assess to some degree. Most of the additions beyond Giannis are also known quantities, as in Portis, Hardaway, and to a lesser degree, Klay. We basically know what we’re getting from Pelle, Simone, Dru. The only wildcards I see are Gardner, Jovic, and Conwell, currently at the tail end of the roster.
I now what you meant. This is only first denominator. If you try to take into account games somebody will play, calculate all points the team will get over 82 games, and divide it wit game average, you get 102.3 -121.5 ppg spread, which, I believe, is not that far from what we will see.
This is going to be a defense heavy team. I expect their scoring average and those of their opponents to be lower than expected. My thinking is that the score lines between Heat and her opponents will likely be between 90-120 ppg hotly contested games with fewer blow out games with a team hitting above the 130s range.
Agree to some extent but will put:
Portis at 8-10 ppg
Hardaway 14-16 ppg
Thompson 10-12 ppg
Jovic 7-9 ppg.
Nick Richards 6-8 ppg if he gets more minutes.
I think either Hardaway or Larsson will be the scoring back-bone of the 2nd unit.
This means 60-80 points from 1st team and 30-50 units from the 2nd unit.
The team averaging about 110 points per game (90-130 ppg).
Winner: Miami HeatTeam is moving up in preseason polls. May crack top 10 by opening day.
after 2 meaningless pre season games love ya lebron.
It’s not the games I see. It’s the talent, depth and potential.They can go 10-11 deep to start the season to make sure they don’t burn out the starters. Meanwhile, Miami can patiently wait for a killer deal or buyout to come along.
This perspective may prove to be really promising. The earliest returns do seem to imply we may have solid depth, which is so necessary. And, if you believe as I do that we are still one player away, then we can feel hopeful because there will probably be a few killer deals that will come along. We just have to be the ones that take advantage of one of them.
Still believe that Heat are 2-3 players away, a starting level point guard, a good backup center, and maybe a slightly better shooting guard.
Only Mitchell (as a backup point guard) Bam, Giannis, Wiggins, Pelle (as a backup shooting guard, Portis (backup power forward) seems to me as good ingredients of a champion level team.
So, we need a really good point guard, maybe a pennetrial all star. We can hope, that one of Klay or THJ or both still has enough in tank to perform, and one of other young players fill the need, but I dont see a home made point guard.
So, the next big trade will be a point guard trade.
Not necessarily. I remember this:
Maybe no one felt better than Avery Johnson. He had been cut by Denver on Christmas Eve, cut by the Spurs on the day of Robinson’s wedding. Portland point guard Damon Stoudamire had said the Spurs would never reach the NBA Finals, let alone win it, with Johnson at their helm.
As my esteemed colleague has pointed out, sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. And let’s not discount the possibility that Donaldson can develop into a decent starter or backup.
Maybe. But those thing are rare.
I agree, but it’s not impossible
Exactly!