The Miami Heat have found themselves in the middle of a weakened East once again. At the All-Star break, they are 29-27 as the No. 8 seed in the East, on track to make their fourth-consecutive play-in.
They have a lot of work to do to avoid that scenario. But in the meantime, what are a few important questions that must be answered post-All-Star break? Let’s examine!
Can Heat’s double-big lineup continue to maul opponents?
The Heat’s frontcourt rotation has been a contentious conversation the last two seasons. Ware arrived with the perceived idea that he would the long-term starter alongside Bam Adebayo. That was the case throughout the latter half of 2024-25 with good-not-great results. However, those lineups came crashing down this season, so much so that they were a minus-42 through the end of January.
February was nicer, with Miami being a plus-67 (!!!) across 41 minutes over the team’s last three games against the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans have no incentive to lose (they just suck), while the Wizards and Jazz are rightfully tanking. There may not be much to take away from those three games.
But can Adebayo-Ware continue that momentum together? That’s the golden question.
How will young players continue to grow?
Despite all the turbulence, how the Heat’s young players — particularly Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson and rookie Kasparas Jakucionis — have grown this season has been a huge bright spot.
Jaquez has blossomed as one of the Heat’s most important players offensively; Larsson is a malleable Swiss Army Knife; and Jakucionis has demonstrated he can be one of the Heat’s most effective spot-up shooters, passers and point-of-attack defenders.
How they continue to grow — as well as Ware and Nikola Jovic, who doesn’t even have two seasons worth of games under his belt — will be important to this team’s short- and long-term direction.
How healthy will Tyler Herro be?
Last, but certainly not least: How healthy is Tyler Herro?
That’s a question we’ve asked a lot over the past three or so seasons. And that’s one that will continue to be asked as long as the 6-foot-5 guard is sidelined. He’s played in just 11 of the team’s 56 games, only appearing in 68.5 percent of the team’s available regular season games the last five years.
That’s an issue. He will be extension-eligible this summer. And Miami’s brass will need to make a decision on him, as well as All-Star guard Norman Powell, heading into the summer.
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John Schuhmann power rankings, always a good read. On the Heat:
Three numbers to know
The Heat have averaged 7.8 more possessions per 48 minutes than they did last season (97.1, 27th). That would be the third biggest season-to-season pace jump for any team in the last 25 years. Theyβve also seen the leagueβs biggest jumps from last season in both ball movement and player movement.
They rank in the top 10 defensively for what would be the sixth straight season and the 23rd time in the last 30. Theyβre the only team that ranks in the top 10 in each of the four factors on defense.
They have the leagueβs biggest differential between their record when theyβve won the first quarter (24-11, 686) and their record when theyβve lost the first quarter (4-16, .200).
On the defensive four factors – opponent EFG%, TOV% (forcing turnovers), DRB% (defensive rebounding), and FT/FGA (foul rate), the Heat rank #8, #10, #9, #8.
And on offense on the same factors they are #20 in EFG%, #4 in TOV% (they don’t turn the ball over), #17 in OREB%, #16 in drawing fouls/free throw rate
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026.html
The combination of taking care of the ball on offense while forcing turnovers on defense is a good indicator, if they can boost the offense
if our team is healthy theres a chance we can compete with anybody in the east.i really believe that.maybe not win a series but get couple games.no ss but lots good players and one bad player
I canβt believe that youβre going back to this idea again! Our team could win a game against any team on a given day. Our team is not at the same level as the elite teams of the east.
were never healthy rc last year we didnt have norm a good jjj ware kasper wiggys better bams better much much.better team that played the cavs
Iβve said all season this is a better team than last season, but we need an A level player to compete with the big boys.
if bam would ever get that kobe mentality he could be a ss.im still waiting for that to happen.hes got everything u could want in a ss besides his mentality
Much more unrealized potential as a team this year. When Herro returns, he can either take the team to the next level offensively or fail to assimilate and bring the team down. He will need to play more unselfishly as a playmaking PG first and scorer second. If he can score 20+ ppg, get 6+ apg and 5+ rpg, while sharing the ball, it could work.
With Herro at PG, Powell at SG, Wiggins at SF, Bam at PF and Ware as C, plus Mitchell, Larssen, Jaquez, Jakucionis, Gardner, Fonteccio, Jovic, Smith and Johnson available off the bench, they can do some damage. It will all depend on whether Herro adds to or takes from the team’s productivity.
I still think Miami should bring in a physical back-up PF/C type to help with the dirty work. Otherwise, I would give Johnson a shot at PF.
This team is going in the right direction. As we have pointed out, we have a much younger nucleus than we had in the past.
no diff makers though unless ware grows a pair
Centers take longer to develop than other positions. He needs a year or two to fill out and mature both physically and mentally. He’ll be ok if Spo doesn’t screw his head up. Spo can get better results with a smile than a stick.
The difference maker will be the A level #1 option that the team needs. Add that to the core, youβre in business.
im saying if ware gets a steady diet of minutes he might be the level 1 player.no other youngens have a chance at that.bam could be a #1 but doesn’t want it
Again, disagree. By this point, I believe we know who Bam is. I believe this is his ceiling, not for lack of desire, but heβs just not a volume scorer. As for Ware, the talent level is there, the skyβs the limit.
Miami has been worse with Herro on the court. They are 4-7 with him, 25-20 without him.
They average 113.5 PPG with him, they average 121.0 without him.
They allow 119.0 PPG with him, they allow 116.75 without him.
We can hold out hope that the oft injured player will get back, be healthy and improve Miami, but the numbers kind of say he won’t.
He doesn’t fit the up-tempo offense. He can’t play defense (which also doesn’t fit the up-tempo offense). He’s a square peg in a round hole with what Spo is operating this year.
agree on herro if i was coach i wouldnt play him got better all round options.if he could just play average d hed be an asset
Well, youβre not the coach and when he is healthy, of course heβll play, hopefully off the bench.
That’s 3 players not playing …Rozier, Herro and Jovic. What a waste of money.
The player we have seen so far this season won’t help the team. The player he can be, a playmaking, fast paced PG, will help the team.
For someone who is looking for an extension, I believe he will be whatever kind of player Miami needs him to be and whatever player that will increase his market value. Time will tell.
how many 6 4 -6 7 guys does pat need jeez how bout some biggens or pgs old man.oh wait greek and ja oh well next failed attempt
fonzi jovic i personally would not play,we have 10 players that i would have no problem playing.this teams record should be better based on the players,pretty much all are 2 way players some are 20 pt scorers or around there(bam norm wiggy
Herro is also a 20 pointer. Wiggins and Bam no longer are.
Literally bar for bar same words as last year lmao. Playin first round then out in 4-5 games in the playoffs. Pat and the front office sells this idea of we have enough whale hunt (fail), front office once again reminds us that they have enough. Wash rinse repeat. Until bam and Tyler the last of the old team are no longer on this team itβs ceiling is playin/1st round.
In a bullfight after a while the light goes on and the bull stops following the cape and goes after the matador. The same thing with sports. Fans will tolerate gas lighting and mediocrity only so long before they start going after the coach and gm.
Heat fans are getting pretty close to flatly rejecting Riley’s empty promises. It’s clear the cavalry isn’t coming. Hell, they haven’t even been called.
spike lee made a very bad move at the all star game.what was he thinking.
And for the guy that keeps asking the same question, but not believing the answer:
The NBA has a tanking problem and the one team that never gives them any grief they’re going to allow to get ripped off. Silver is a bum.
Miami did get ripped off, but I think the FO shouldn’t be absolved of the blame. They traded for this guy. He wasn’t that good, even without the cheating scandal. Defensively he was awful with the Hornets and he was a volume scorer.
Sucks that the NBA and Hornets pulled the wool over Riley and Andy, but I also think that some of this is sour grapes. Our FO screwed up (with help from the NBA and Charlotte), why bail them out?
Has he been accused of tanking games in Miami (if so, I haven’t seen it)? The games in question took place in Charlotte. And without that, the only thing Miami really lost, was this year of Terry, where I don’t think a single person here, thinks the team would really be better with him.
Miami is paying for sins Roziet may have committed with Charlotte. Literally…paying through the nose. Scary Terry was scoring 23 points per game with Charlotte before the trade and Lowry was old and sucked big time. Most of us thought it was a good deal at the time.
Miami would not be in this situation if Rozier, Charlotte or Adam Silver (the NBA) had disclosed the allegations against Rozier and ongoing FBI investigation. They didn’t. Miami was defrauded and now has legal recourse against all three. PERIOD!
Other than his salary this year – which I agree is a lot, what has Miami paid?
He was on the team and available except for injuries in the prior year. So the player Miami paid for, has been available to Miami for the majority of the time since the trade.
And while some folks here thought the trade was good, I donβt think it was as well received as you are making it out to be. I think while no one was sad to lose Lowry, many folks would have liked to keep a draft pick and the cap room Lowryβs contract created.
The way I see it – unless something changes and Rozier is accused to tanking here – Miami traded for a player who had a contract for two and a half years. They got 1.5 of those years.
Miami bought a bad asset. If it comes out that he gambled on Miami games I think then the fact that the NBA and Charlotte colluded would be more material.
But in theory the only thing Miami lost was this years availability of Rozier, and given how his minutes dwindled down the stretch last year, I donβt think we really lost that much.
i care more about terrys freedom than a fkn pick.heat will remain mediocre w/o a ss.pray for terrys freedom rc way more important
You said the same thing last season and Dallas got Flagg in our spot. We wouldnβt have to be looking for a ss if we kept that pick. Even if the ping pong balls didnβt fall our way, we would have had other choices in the range of that #11 pick. Draft picks matter. They can be flipped for the ss you want.
As for βprayingβ for Rozier, I have more important things to pray for. What I hope for him is that his case is decided based on available evidence. And youβre the same guy who had him guilty all last season, calling him gambler and asking βhow could he do that?β.
And anyway, you are also the same person who has questioned multiple times whether Charlotte and the league KNEW about the investigation prior to the trade. Yes, they knew.
They knew, Rozier knew. Everybody knew except Miami. Why? Because the parties (Rozier, the NBA & Charlotte) chose not to disclose to Miami the fact Rozier was being investigated by the FBI for possible illegal gambling activities. This investigation has since resulted in criminal charges filed by the FBI against Rozier.
Failure to disclose a material fact is a legal omission that occurs when one or more parties withhold information that is significant enough to influence a reasonable person’s decision-making in a transaction or legal proceeding.
The consequences and definitions vary by industry, but generally, this silence is treated as a form of fraud or misrepresentation. This legal violation often results in lawsuits, voided contracts, and potential punitive damages for fraud or negligence.
if nothing has happened by now time to let it go sun.why dont u send something to the heat maybe u can be a defacto lawyer for them
Let it go? If someone committed fraud against you, and they were caught but not charged, would you let it go? I think not.
u sue the nba in the long run not a good thing.
Maybe it will push Silver out, opening a door for you.
Incompetence and mismanagement should never be rewarded. Miami has the right to legally defend itself because it was damaged as the result of Adam Silver’s gross negligence. This should be an open and shut case.
ο»ΏThe only questions are:
1) How much of Rozier’s salary is Miami owed?
2) Is the NBA prepared to return Miami’s 2027 draft pick?
3) What is the appropriate amount to seek in damages?
If you appease the NBA it is worse. Btw, Charlotte is higher than Miami in latest rankings. It could be higher seed by the end of the season. Imagine if they get their own pick plus Miami’s next year and Heat gets nothing except the shaft?
You mean let Riley and the Heat’s legal team go. This is ridiculous. What are these people being paid to do? Fans deserve better than their ongoing silence. After all, its money paid by fans being used to pay Rozier to sit on his *** at home doing nothing. Doesn’t Riley have the spine to stand up to Silver?
Whenever heatforlife gets called out he runs and hide (tuck his tail so to speak) he also was one of those he wants to see more heat games in the playoffs which is why he wanted them to make the playoffs. Only for them to get destroyed which will happen this year as well.
I believe youβre right about the playoffs. It is reasonable to assume that the Heat have a near zero chance of winning a championship this season. If everything falls exactly right, they might get into the second round, but thatβs a long shot. Make the playoffs, we will pick in the 20 range again. Miss and we would pick no lower than 14 or higher. No guarantee what level player theyβd get, but odds are better. A lottery pick, along with other picks we would be able to put into play, might get us a #1 option in a trade, which is desperately needed.
This is a great point. We have no realistic chance in the first round, even if we are successful in the play in. And next year a few of the Heatβs pending contract issues may be resolved and that will free up some money to add at least another free agent to the core of the team along with the new draft pick.
There won’t be that much money freed up unless Powell, Wiggins, Fontecchio and Johnson are allowed to walk. Bam and Jovic have healthy raises kicking in which should eat up the money currently budgeted for Rozier’s expiring salary.
whos running was celebrating family members bday .i was half heartedly kidding around saying 4 more games of e reid and rcs posts.look at the best players in nba they are drafted everywhere.theres many drafted in later part of first rnd.once jimmy quit we were fkd .now w/o a ss we are fkd like many teams in nba.its hard to get a young ss or even an older one.we shall sit with patience till one is gotten..it could be next year or longer time will tell.im 69 got maybe 15 years of life so somebody get me one within 10 years.btw u never answer my ? r u a heat fan .
You are correct that some great players were drafted in the mid first round and even early second round. But your odds are better when you have a high pick. Here are just some of the players chosen in the first 5 picks. LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Tim Duncan, Shaq, Olajuwan, KG, Barkley, Wade, Pippin, Doncic, Ant, Ja, Tatum, AD, and now Flagg. So, trying to say draft picks donβt matter doesnβt hold water.
i would have him investigated if was he shady when a heater/id mentioned many times he was missing shots intentioanally,lots misses not even close to going in
I have refuted this theory many times. My example is and always has been that if you knew you were being investigated by the feds for dealing drugs on the street corner, would you go back to that street corner while youβre being investigated and deal more drugs? Nobody in their right mind would do such a thing. There was no reason for him to be missing intentionally, there was no indication that there was any betting on or against our games. If he was missing, it was a rough period most likely due to the pressure of the investigation.
1% chance at #1 pick u dont think that sht is rigged .i was checking out who owns the mavs 73% owned by the adelsons whos family was involved in the high profile murder in florida .mother organized plot to kill son in law donna adelson charles adelson convicted spending rest life in jail.
No, I do not think that your conspiracy theories are correct. Maybe you should just listen to the song Paranoid by Black Sabbath.
i believe that was just the name of the album rc.pop getting all those #1 picks sends a red flag
Paranoid is a song by the English band Black Sabbath released in 1970 on the band’s second studio album, Paranoid (1970). It is the first single from the album, while the B-side is the song “the Wizard”. The song is widely regarded as one of the greatest heavy metal songs of all time.
Youβre slipping, old man.
He’s not a Sabbath fan. He’s a big Talking Heads fan.
Lol!
sabbath one of hfls favs.
But you didnβt know one if their greatest hits? Shame! I was fortunate to see Ozzy about 10 years ago. Opening act was Slash.
All those #1 picks? Lmao!!! The Spurs have gotten 3 #1 picks in 38 years!!! Yeah, the fix is in.
Until someone they made campaign contributions to pardons them.
Anthony Chiang says the team might not be in the buyout market as it wants to make sure the young players have minutes. I’m not sure if that will end up being the case but let’s see.
Which young players is Miami planning to use in the front court? I hope Goldin and Johnson are included in the mix.
What about Powell and Wiggins? Gonna let them walk away for free if Powell’s contract expires and Wiggins opts out of final year to sign elsewhere (like Golden State)? Is Miami going to extend Jaime’s contract like it did Jovic’s or risk losing him? Will there be a serious effort to bring in a quality big rotation player or is Jovic expected to fill that roll? Is Riley retiring and is Spo moving into an executive role? Is Keshad’s contract going to be extended or allowed to expire? Who is the next whale on the list?
Aren’t all of these after the season?
Not really. Riley and Spo have been sitting on pending issues that won’t fix themselves.
Does Riley wait until “after the season” for Powell’s contract to expire?
Does Riley wait until “after the season” for Wiggins to opt out of his contract and sign elsewhere?
Does Riley continue to ignore the front court depth issue until “after the season”?Is Riley planning to wait until “after the season” to attempt to improve the team?
Is Spo going to continue to play Jovic to the detriment of the team and figure out what to do with him “after the season”?
Is Keshad going to be ignored and allowed to walk “after the season” when his contract expires?
What is Riley’s strategic plan for obtaining a ss “after the season” and how is he now preparing to accomplish that?
Is Riley going to take legal action against the NBA and the Charlotte Hornets for failing to disclose the pending FBI criminal investigation of Rozier before approving his trade to the Heat in 2024? Does he plan to wait until “after the season” to decide what to do?
ο»Ώ
I’m sure there are several other important pending issues that I can’t think of off the top of my head that need to be addressed by Riley and Spo soon, rather than procrastinating until “after the season.”
My opinion on eachβ¦.
Agree on the Powell and Wiggins issue.
Front court depth? Yes, possibly addressed after the season.
Jovic? Yes, I think he still gets minutes. Weβre stuck with him at the moment.
Keshad? Opinions here seem to be split almost down the middle. That explosive athleticism makes me want to see him get minutes.
Obtaining a ss? That is Mount Everest for now.
Rozier issue. I must assume the Heat/owners have some of the best lawyers in the state. The Heat are the injured party. Why no action/resolution? No idea.
Wiggins will be his decision. I believe he will opt in. He wont get more money in the open market.
But signing Powell also means give up on Herro, or the other way around. This will wait till offseason.
Jovic will play, a little more, if there will be any good from him, or a bit less, if nothing.
Keshad will be released.
Riley will go for what will be available in the summer and fail again.
There will be some sort of closure before offseason in Rosiers case. There will be something for Heat, but not picks or money relief. Maybe a change of rules and an apology.
Heat gonna pay Herro and powell trade jovic an rozier contract salary
Have to wait until offseason to trade Jovic, if there are any takers. At the moment, thatβs doubtful.
He needs to be sent to Sioux Falls to get his s*** together/find his mojo and return to play before the end of the season in order to raise his trade value. Otherwise, there will be absolutely no market for him after the season or in the foreseeable future.
I know you feel strongly about this, but I donβt foresee him spending time with the SkyForce and I think it could further damage what mojo he has left with such a demotion. He had a good 5 minutes last game. He needs to be on a very short leash and play aggressively every minute heβs on the court. My biggest problem with him is not making mistakes, itβs making mistakes while playing passively.
Jovic will play, because of the following reasons.
-because there is no other big available, especially now, where it seems playing Bam and Ware works better.
-because sitting on the bench wont make any trade.
-because there is still a bit of chance, that he can become something better. Rosier and JJJ were almost as bad last season.
hear hear!
Technically disagree on point 1. We could try Vlad. I agree on points 2 and 3.
Or somebody from buyout market, which I believe, is a better option.
I like the triple J comparison from last season. Progress is not linear and this could just be a lost year from Jovic. Someone suggested he could have impostor syndrome after signing the contract and that to me sounds like a good theory.
The contract itself is 4 years/$62M and it’s flat. He gets paid the same next year as in the last year, $16.2M. That’s around 10% of the cap next year and 8.5% in the last year in 2029-30, which is still just his age 26 season.
I mentioned the imposter syndrome like what happened to Duncan.
That’s probably where I got it, haha. I think that’s a great call. Mechanically he looks good like in 1 v 1 defense but mentally he’s not there. Not playing with force either. Shooting 10% less from 3 than last year, when he was at 37% (and two years ago he shot 40%)
What about Goldin (C) and Johnson (PF)?
Vagibugi has already written off Keshad. I still think, at the least, he can be a defender, rebounder, dunker, and enforcer.
Keshad is built kind of like Highsmith, only bigger and more physical. He just needs to get some regular minutes. He has done well in G League this year:
Highsmith makes two things really well beside defense. Corner 3p , and that rim hook shoot. That makes him an NBA player.
I dont see Keshad have that fine touch needed to be a good finisher in the rim, neither deadly from the corner.
One thing is certain, nobody will let him dunk in the game because he is a dunking champion.
Yes I did. Not that I m happy about it. I try to be realistic.
I would prefer somebody from buyout market.
If it is presented to him as a constructive opportunity to get regular minutes and find his comfort zone and confidence, I think he will accept the move to Sky Force. If he views it as punitive, he will not accept it. If he continues receiving limited minutes and does not find his groove and perform well enough to be part of the regular rotation, that will do more to harm his ego than a 2-3 week stint in Sioux Falls.
Okay, we will agree to disagree on this one. π
One other thing about Jovic is his lack of maturity. Jakucionis is 2 years younger and much more mature/emotionally stable than Jovic. Jus sayin.
Totally agree. And Kas plays fearlessly, aggressively. He goes up significantly harder for a rebound than Jovic even though heβs 5-6β shorter.
That’s it exactly!
Jaquez, Larsson, Gardner, Johnson and Jakucionis are all physical, hustling, hard nosed players. Jovic is a wannabe finesse player without a great deal of finesse. If he intends to survive and flourish with the Heat, he needs to find (or develop) a mean streak and commit to playing physical, Miami Heat basketball. At 6’10 and 240 lbs., he could be a big help in the paint and his 3 point shot could help spread the floor.
Most of the good finesse European players can score, even if their defense is not that strong. Jovic does neither well. He has no specialty. He fails to embrace the role of a physical PF and does not have the confidence to be a consistent and reliable offensive player.
The reason Jaquez has made such a remarkable turnaround this season, is he decided last offseason the kind of player he wanted/needed to be survive and flourish in the NBA. He has gone out and become that player. As a result, he’s gone from sitting at the end of the bench last year to 6th man of the year candidate this year. Getting his head screwed on straight was 90% of his solution.
As far as Jovic, sitting on the bench and pressing every single time he gets a chance to play is retarding his growth. His self-confidence is in the gutter. He’s down on himself and his ego is deflated. Sometimes, players need to go back to basics to find themselves and to get their mojo back. I think that is exactly what Jovic needs. A few games in the G League might do him wonders.
Good analysis.