In a season full of ups and downs, it’s mostly been down for Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro.
Coming off a career-high 77 games, where he made his first All-Star team in 2024-25, Herro has played in just 11 of the team’s 56 games this season. When he’s played, he’s been OK, averaging 21.9 points on 49.7/35.8/90.2 shooting splits with similar concerns as a playmaker and defender.
However, he hasn’t played — the crux of the issue for the 26-year-old.
As a result, has he become overrated? According to Bleacher Report’s Greg Swartz, he has.
“Is it possible to be an All-Star and Sixth Man of the Year before turning 26 and still be overrated? In Tyler Herro’s case, yes,” Swartz wrote. “Actions speak louder than words. We can clearly see how the Heat value Herro, which is how the league should view him as well; a good scorer with defensive limitations and durability concerns.
“Herro isn’t a max-caliber player or anywhere close to it. Miami made it to the Finals in 2023 after Herro broke his hand in Game 1 of the playoffs. The team looked far better without him, which should have been a sign.
“Having reached 70 games in a season once in his seven-year career (including just 11 so far this season), Herro has become overrated.”
Why Tyler Herro isn’t one of the most overrated guards in NBA:
While I agree with Swartz regarding his criticisms of Herro, here’s where I differ from him in the overrated/underrated conversation.
Perhaps my perception of Herro’s value where people view him is wrong. But if the consensus either 1.) believes you’re overrated or 2.) doesn’t rate you highly to begin with, then how exactly are you overrated?
Part of that may stimulate from making the All-Star team, which was the coaches’ decisions based on his play up to that point. That’s a 50-ish game sample honor that he earned. But all of that goodwill came crashing down in the playoffs (to Swartz’s point), when he was targeted by Darius Garland and Ty Jerome like he was a deer in headlights.
While I campaigned for the Heat to at least explore his trade value off a career season after the Orlando Magic heaved four first-round picks to the Orlando Magic for Desmond Bane, that package appears to be an outlier, not the standard on a player of Herro’s prototype.
The league doesn’t value one-way scoring guards who are targets defensively like they once did. NBA teams are much smarter at exploiting their weaknesses — especially in the playoffs — nowadays. The Cavaliers series was the perfect example of that.
None of this is to say that Herro’s not a good player. He is. But he’s also a flawed player. And I don’t think the general consensus views that archetype, who’s played in just 68.5 percent of available regular season games over the last five years, very high anymore.
Thus, I can’t make a real legitimate case that he’s “overrated” — at least relative to the rest of his peers.
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Basketball reference currently has the Heat with a 0.8% chance at 3rd seed, 4% 4th, 20% 5th, 25% 6th, 22% 7th, 13% 8th. Matt Moore’s projections have the Heat as the 5th seed in the East:
1 DET vs 8 PHI
2 BOS vs 7 CHA
3 CLE vs 6 TOR
4 NYK vs 5 MIA
So there is a chance?
I would prefer CLE over NY in first round. The beard cant handle the tempo in series.
Agreed, was a little surprised he has NYK 4th. Basketball reference gives them a 75% chance of being 2-3. But their schedule is harder than Cleveland’s to close the season
It’s a strange year with four teams all at 3-1 co-favorites to win the East – has that happened before? DET is actually close to challenging OKC for the best record in the league, but their lack of previous playoff series wins is keeping their odds with the other teams
And potential revenge is nice. The other side of that is getting killed by them again lol
Herro is 2nd on the team in points in the paint per game (10.2) after Jaquez (10.3), and also 2nd in fast break points per game (3.2) after Powell (3.7). Heat need him back asap
Saw this from John Schuhmann at nba.com at the start of the year on the Heat’s problem with interior scoring: last year the Heat were 23rd in paint FG%, 24th in free throw rate, and 27th in offensive rebound percentage.
This year they’re actually worse in paint FG% (they are 30th, last in the league), and slightly better at free throw rate (17th) and OREB% (17th).
Overall last year they had the #9 defense, #21 offense, and were #15 in net rating. This year they’re better, #4 defense, #17 offense, #10 net but offense is still the question. They need to get the offense into the top 10-15