It’s win-or-go-home time in the East! For the Miami Heat to have a chance of keeping their season alive, they will need to win Tuesday in the 9-10 play-in game against the Charlotte Hornets, which will tip at 7:30 p.m. EST inside Spectrum Center. What are a few keys to victory?! Let’s examine!
Defend the 3-point line:
Skinny: The Heat defense has cratered over the last month, dropping to No. 14 in defensive rating after owning the league’s sixth-worst defense since the start of March. Their defense has been beyond incomprehensible for an Erik Spoelstra-led unit, and it’s largely in part due to opponents’ 3-point shooting regression … or, in this case, progression. Up until that point, Heat opponents were shooting just 34.9 percent (6th-best); since then, they’re shooting 38.8 percent (3rd-worst).
Conversely, the Hornets — led by LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel — are one of the league’s best 3-point shooting teams. They lead the NBA in 3-point makes per 100 possessions (16.7) and are third in 3-point percentage. Miami will have to do a far better job closing out on 3-point shooters and running them off the arc, where they have destroyed teams all season, Knueppel especially.
Rebound, rebound, rebound!:
Skinny: Rebounds win championships. As a wise man once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” The Hornets are second in offensive rebound percentage while topping the NBA in second-chance points per possession. The Heat were a top-8 team in defensive rebound percentage and allowed the 11th-fewest second-chance points per possession, although they do forego plenty of long rebounds that inevitably lead to clean looks. Miami is bigger than Charlotte, but will they be more physical on the glass?! They will need to in a do-or-die scenario.
Backcourt superiority:
Skinny: We already mentioned Kneuppel and Ball at the top, but Coby White is another name to keep an eye on here. Since Coby White’s arrival, that trio makes up three of their top-4 scorers, led by Ball’s 21.4 points and Knueppel’s 17.9 points per game (Brandon Miller’s also averaging 19.9 points).
The Hornets have a well-balanced offense with plenty of motion, guard-to-guard screens and different actions to free up their best players. If the Heat want to win, their backcourt trio — Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell and Tyler Herro — will have to be better. The biggest challenge will be how the latter two fare defensively, since both are significantly below-average defenders.
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This is a pretty even game, but only because it’s in Charlotte, as the home court may be a factor. For Charlotte, this is their first taste of meaningful basketball in awhile.
I wish for a good draft pick this year. I don’t believe this flawed roster can achieve anything meaningful in the playoffs.
But at the same time (just like last year) I can’t root against my team. I don’t think any true fan can.
Anyway, losing intentionally is out of question under Riley and Spo. You can bet that these players will do their best to prove they’re better. Charlotte is a rising talented team, but they lack experience. Miami has plenty. This game can go either way. But I still think it’s unlikely the Heat can make it to the playoffs with the current roster.
box out and man up
I love the Heat being the underdog. Having been written off again and again and its no different this season. Im ok if they lose to these up and coming Hornets team but will be having a good laugh if they get that 8th seed. As ive said im not gonna bet against them.
CHA is +18.3 points in their wins this year
+5 per 100 possessions in net rating (#8)
They are not an overwhelming favorite at home (21-20 on year, 15-10 since Jan. 1)
Not an expert on how the line is made, but the line for this game (CHA -5.5) is a reflection of CHA’s +5 net rating, plus an edge for being the home team.
Charlotte’s offense is heavily reliant on threes (#1 in 3PM, #1 in 3PA, # 25 in points in the paint per 100) and OREBs (#4 in OREBs, #1 in 2nd chance points per 100)
Charlotte does not really have the profile of a team built for postseason success. Anything can happen in one game, but this feels like a game where the line does not mean as much. Can’t imagine a better upset spot for the Heat if they are still bought in
Charlotte (and Miami) would not have qualified for the playoffs just a six years ago. Saying they aren’t built for post season success is common sense. Neither is Miami.
Only one time in NBA history has a team not seeded in the top 4, won a title. (Houston as the 6th seed). Only twice has a top three seed not one the title.
Only 12 times in NBA history has a seed outside of the top 3 even made the Finals.
Charlotte isn’t built to win a title this year, clearly neither is Miami.
The Heat will not win the title this year. They will not win the ECF.
They will not advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Very likely they won’t win the second play in game.
But they are definitely able to win tonight.
We’ll see.. This game can go either way.
Comment was more about how CHA offense is so reliant on threes. Many around the NBA and many fans are picking Charlotte to give Detroit a competitive 1/8 series, and make that the best low seed high seed matchup. I don’t see that.
Miami has to be the tougher, more physical team, and that is possible. Charlotte on the year has the #12 defense but doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to slow down Miami in individual matchups.
Charlotte this year takes 48.7% of their shots from three, only GSW is higher at 49.7%. Fascinated to see how a team that takes half their shots from 3 does in these play-in/playoff games
Last year Boston did that (53.6% of their shots were threes, #1 in league) and it cost them the playoff series vs NYK, and they were a much better team than Charlotte