While he didn’t play a second in their first-round series due to a hamstring injury, Denver Nuggets fourth-year wing revealed himself as arguably the Nuggets’ biggest X-Factor. Now, he will enter restricted free agency for the first time in his career after the organization elected to pay Christian Braun instead of him last summer.
At the time, the move made some degree of sense. Braun, a critical role player to their title run in 2022-23, exited his third season averaging 15.4 points and 5.2 rebounds on hyper-efficient 58.0/39.7/82.7 shooting splits. But with his impact taking a slight step back, with Watson’s doing the exact opposite, the Nuggets appear to be at a crossroads this summer.
In the Heat’s case, one of their bigger needs exists in the wing room, where they need more dynamic, bigger, lankier options to combat the NBA’s size phenomenon. And Watson, 23, could fit that image perfectly.
Why Heat should target Peyton Watson this summer:
Watson broke out with the Nuggets in 2025-26. Over his first three seasons, he showed flashes, but not all of the puzzle pieces were quite together yet. Drafted No. 30 overall in 2022, Watson tallied 6.8 points and 3.1 rebounds on 47.2 percent shooting, including 32.8 percent from 3-point range and 67.3 percent from the free-throw line.
The rangy 6-foot-8 wing improved significantly in 2025-26 — as a shooter and self-creator. He’s always been a strong, lanky multi-positional defender with a high motor. But Watson averaged 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 blocks across 29.6 minutes per game. He shot 49.1 percent from the floor, 41.1 percent from beyond the arc and a career-best 73.0 percent from the charity stripe.
He took a huge leap off the dribble, where he developed more comfort in his ability to pull up and rise over defenders — both out of the pick-and-roll and standard isolation possessions. He was a game-changer for Denver, who experienced a down season from Braun and Cam Johnson, who they acquired for Michael Porter Jr. last summer.
Now, the Nuggets have a calamitous cap situation on their doorstep. They are nearly $2 million away from the second apron — without any of their own draft picks to remedy the situation via trade. Enter Watson, who the Nuggets will extend the qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent.
Miami can offer up the full mid-level exception, worth nearly $15.0 million, while staying below the first apron. Watson’s a very good player, but after last summer’s RFA debacle with Quentin Grimes, Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas, there’s a nonzero chance he accepts that (with due time to see where his market is). Obviously, the Nuggets’ primary priority should be re-signing him, but it’s only plausible if other dominoes fall, such as moving Johnson, Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon to create flexibility and movable assets.
That’s not to say they won’t, but I have a hard time believing the Kroenke’s will move mountains to retain Watson, especially if the returns for the aforementioned players are 80 cents on the dollar. Furthermore, one could assume Nikola Jokic, a free agent in 2027, puts pressure on the front office to make a big swing.
For the Heat, they acquire a dynamic two-way wing — one who’s still improving, but one who has flashed a ceiling worth investing in at just 23. He offers plenty of functional size and versatility, two areas that the Heat lack. One of the best developmental organizations in the NBA get their hands on a potential Andrew Wiggins heir apparent at a fraction of the cost, even though Watson’s growth as a ballhandler, shooter and processor already suggests he could be more than that in the right role and system.
Would you target Watson?! Let us know in the comments!
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Looks like he’d be a good pickup. Size, athleticism, and his shooting motion looks very smooth.
every game on prime which mine is down oh nba u suk
Not a bad idea as depth at a position where we only had Andrew. We would still need the 6’11” guy too.