While the Miami Heat’s season has been over for a month, there is still a lot of exciting basketball that’s being played right now. We’re one game into the conference finals in both the East and West. Is there anything we’ve learned and, most importantly, that the Miami Heat can learn?! Let’s examine a few hard truths they must come to grips with.
Heat are far, FAR away from contention:
Whatever your perceived gap is between the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and the rest of the NBA, it’s probably bigger than that. For the Miami Heat, it doesn’t seem like they’re playing the same sport; it doesn’t even seem like they’re in the same universe.
Everywhere you look, there’s size, speed, athleticism, versatility, etc. Anything you can name. Even when examining the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, they offer two-way dynamism and creation capability that the Heat doesn’t have.
Thankfully, the Miami Heat have Bam Adebayo, one of the best centers in the NBA, and Erik Spoelstra, one of the league’s best head coaches, despite a few down seasons. They also have some budding young talent in Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson and Jaime Jaquez Jr., plus some admirable vets in Andrew Wiggins and Norman Powell.
Together, however, the pieces don’t quite jell, culminating in four straight play-in appearances. And that’s the biggest crux of the issue; too many players are either overextending or aren’t being put in the proper positions to succeed. Perhaps, it’s both.
Two-way depth is king:
It’s impossible to win if a superstar isn’t captaining the ship. But it’s just as impossible to win without complementary two-way depth. The adage, “Defense wins championships,” continues to bore fruit, just as much as offense does.
The rise of Oklahoma City and San Antonio are perfect examples. Of course, two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama drive the bus for their two respective teams. But those teams aren’t as good as they without premier defenders, such as Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Carter Bryant, among others.
Those aforementioned players are scalabe, too; they’re malleable, capable of fullfilling multiple different roles depending on the lineup structure. You can’t win if you’re playing one-way players. Unfortunately for the Heat, they have too many of those, namely Herro and Powell, two of the worst point-of-attack defenders in the sport.
Building through the draft has never been more important:
The Heat only know one way: Acquiring stars via trade. However, that’s not how modern champions are built. The NBA Draft is the primary mechanism for constructing winners, especially in the two-apron era.
Oklahoma City built through the draft while also investing in Gilgeous-Alexander after his rookie season. Boston built through the draft before timely trades for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday when they were mere pieces away; Denver built through the draft before striking for Aaron Gordon; Golden State obviously constructed its three-headed monster of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson through the draft.
Modern champions are not build through swinging for stars every six months — especially if said team is nowhere near contention. Ahem, the Heat aren’t. That’s how you turn into the Kevin Durant Phoenix Suns, a top-heavy disaster that folded faster than a seven off-suit poker hand.
We’ve discussed the importance of cost-controlled contracts ad nauseaum. You build through the draft. And if you can’t land in the top-10, you amass assets. Miami is quite successful at developing talent relative to its draft position, though it’s failed to accumulate assets, leaving little wiggle room as it pertains to star hunting.
These observations and truths don’t come from thin air. They’ve been quite apparent for the last half-decade, although the Heat haven’t adapted. And I don’t expect them to change; they’re going to whale hunt until they’re blue in the face, and then they’re going to do it some more.
Regardless, they need to pick a direction — which has been nonexistent the last few summers. But based on what I listed above, don’t pick the wrong one!
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Well, it looks bleak right now, with watching high level basketball in PO. Still, there are some examples, which make things better.
Look at Phoenix suns, franchise, which projected to be doomed for years after trading away Beal, KD and all their pick n past years.
With adding right players, they had solid, if not great season. They dont have picks, they dont have good young players, but they have solid team, playing every night to their limits.
I do agree, that two way players are the future, and the league is going in that direction. This makes the likes of Brooks, Thompsons, Hart.. valuable player, and the type of Powell and Herro non valuable ones.
Miami should give up every player unable to play defense.
Heat definitely need better roster construction next year but not to get rid of all one way players. 28 of 30 teams are built with one way players, only OKC and Spurs can say their 5 starters are all two way players. You can win and even be a superteam built around a one way player (GSW with Curry) if the roster is constructed the right way. OKC was in danger of losing last year to Indiana who had a similar roster construction, strong defensive team built around Haliburton, who could hide on defense and play passing lanes.
Heat rotation was strong on defense overall with the exception of Herro, Powell and Ware. One way to solve that is a Giannis trade and then bring back Powell. Powell would be the only bad defender in the rotation in that scenario.
Heat just need to find another PJ Tucker, easier said than done. Lowry/Butler/PJ/Bam was a top 5 defense, and Herro led the team in minutes
Could see Heat in a Giannis trade being.a top 5, top 8 defense again, both through replacing Herro and Ware’s minutes and the defensive upgrade Giannis would bring.
Giannis main impact now is on offense, Bucks were +14 with Giannis last year, of that +11 was on offense. But he’s still a former DPOY.
Any team trading for Giannis needs the defensive pieces in place to put around him, this Heat team definitely has that.
Suns mistakes:
trading Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, 4 firsts for Durant in 2023. But Durant averaged 29 ppg on 61% EFG that year, same as Curry. Was also the best defender of their three stars compared to Booker and Beal
trading 4 first round pick swaps and 5 second round picks for Beal
As a result of those two trades Phoenix doesnt control their draft through 2031/had nothing left to trade after for more roster upgrades. When the on court fit didnt work out (three offense oriented players who all play best controlling the ball) Suns had to trade KD and waive and stretch Beal’s contract
If comparison is Kevin Durant/ Suns to Giannis/ Heat – as good as KD is, Giannis is better, an easier player to build around and in much more recent MVP form as top 5 in MVP odds back in October. Heat have a clear on court fit for Giannis, vs Suns who didn’t for KD/Beal and made the trades anyway
Counterpoint to the Spurs and OKC teambuilding example is the two teams in the ECF right now.
(And OKC’s most important move to build their Finals winner was getting SGA, which didnt involve the draft but was only made possible by not tanking in 2016-17 and getting Paul George that offseason. OKC decided not to tank after Durant left in 2016, instead competing for a playoff spot as the 6th seed, which led to the PG trade and him signing an extension in 2018. Paul George at age 27/28 does not want to get traded to OKC and wouldn’t have signed an extension without OKC having Westbrook and already being a competitive team.)
Only 1 starter of 10 on this years ECF teams was drafted by their current team (Evan Mobley). Only 3 (Mobley, Towns, Harden) were drafted in the top 5.
NYK starters draft position: #1 Towns, #10 Bridges, #23 OG, #30 Hart, #33 Brunson. Their best player and the best player in the series Brunson was a 2nd rounder
CLE starters: #3 Harden, #3 Mobley, #13 Mitchell, #22 Allen, and undrafted Dean Wade
And both CLE and NYK are built around one way stars (Mitchell and Harden, Brunson and Towns) with the rest of the teams starters being defensive oriented to support/cover for them. Always preferable if you can find a two way star, but you can put yourself in a position to win if you build a team that is more than the sum of its parts where players strengths cover for others weaknesses and the team plays together.
jb dono ss kat james all stars diff level of players
I would put Brunson as the 2nd or 3rd best player in the EC, behind Giannis and with Cade either as 2nd or 3rd best. Cade is a two way player, Brunson isn’t but he’s like Luka, he imposes his own pace on the game, rare quality only a few can do
Top 4 teams in the EC last year: IND, NYK, CLE, BOS
Indiana (only 2 of 5 starters were drafted by the team) is like Cleveland and New York
Indiana last year – #11 Turner, #12 Haliburton, #14 Nesmith, #27 Siakam, #31 Nembhard
Their two best players Hali and Siakam were both acquired in trades.
Only rotation players on Indiana drafted in top 10 was Mathurin (#6) and Toppin (#8 by NYK). Mathurin was Pacers highest draft pick since Rik Smits #2 in 1988. They haven’t had a top 5 pick since then, almost 40 years, were one game away from winning Finals. Like CLE and NYK they built a contender mostly through trades
great post wow good stuff
Again lol! keep trying
Funny…if you’re a Heat fan and have no hope for your team why not root for another franchise who’s winning now? Say OKC or Spurs? Even the Knicks! Coz u think that ur idea is the only way to go and its not happening and u pull down other opinions to make urself look better…ur looking like a frustrated entitled little kid about to make a tantrum lol
“Coz u think that ur idea is the only way to go and its not happening and u pull down other opinions to make urself look better…“
Contradict yourself much. Lmao cause someone don’t agree with you go be a fan of another team? Everyone has different opinions on what the team should or shouldn’t do, that’s what makes being a fan fun.
You know what doesn’t make being a fan fun? Being mediocre year in and year out
Overhyping and overvaluing average players
Paying said players big contract with no return
Being a playin team time after time
Not having young talent to get excited about
Whale hunting and striking out.
You get it don’t you
Agree with this article. But also Miami has a good system even if others disagree and already see that its outdated. And with that system, adding a ss can start the climb to contention again. Who knows, if Heat retain Kelel Ware he might just develop to a Wemby light at least or just might defend the alien well enough. What OKC and San Antonio did tanking for years is easier said than done. Someone here said that its also a mix of luck and timing. That you can never guarantee those top drafts to turn out well. Again with a good system that Miami has, they might have a better chance when rookies wear that Heat jersey.
“Someone here said that it’s also a mix of luck and timing. That you can never guarantee those top drafts to turn out well.“
Yall keep spewing this bs so what’s the alternative? What they’ve been doing? How’s that working for them? Team hasn’t had a top ten pick in 10 years a top 5 pick in 23 years a top 2 pick in 18 years but being stuck in mediocrity seems to breed this kind of thinking. Also has they done the hard part last year and this year they’d be ahead of schedule now they’re a team going nowhere stuck in no man’s land with pray and wishing for a ss to come here in a era that doesn’t happen anymore. Wait for 2027 FA class where it’s nothing but older ss I’ve actually looked at it some have just taken the teams word for it. And gap year number 3 loading lmao
There are many avenues a team can explore to improve. There is some truth to all the different opinions of how best to get out of the rut we’re in. As hhh4l and others correctly point out, the one thing the team can’t do is any version of just running it back. I am more a believer, particularly right now, in building through the draft and making trades to move certain players out and bring younger players or picks in. Others want to sell the farm to bring in a ss. Either approach can be successful, and either approach may fail. This already feels like the longest and worst offseason ever and we have at least another 5 weeks before we even begin to get any answers. I don’t expect anybody to change their minds to my way of thinking about team building, but all the rhetoric, data, or caustic comments aren’t going to change mine. Except for ‘running it back again’ which should be a total non starter, I will look forward to seeing a better version of my favorite team when the next training camp starts.
Just Spitballing.
Keep or trade Wiggins if he opts in. Sign & trade him if he opts out. Sign & trade Powell for young player and 2nd round pick. Trade Herro to Detroit for Beef Stew, Holland and 21st pick.
Draft someone like Cameron Carr (SG), Yaxel Lendeborg (PF) Chris Cenac Jr.(PF/C) Hannes Steinbach (PF) or Morez Johnson Jr (PF) in first round with 13th and 21st picks and Baba Miller (SF/PF), Flory Bidunga (C) or Rueben Chinyelu (C) with 41st pick.
There are 2 strongly opposing views on this site. I happen to be in the same camp as you. People are entitled to agree or disagree as they see fit. Both building through the draft or going all in for a ss can be successful and both can fail. My position is if you fail building through the draft, at least you still have all your assets. If you fail after going all in for a ss, you are up shitz creek without a paddle.
I m not so sure.
Its in my nature to prefer slow building over going all in, not just regarding basketball, also in life.
But I learned that something you have to go out of your comfort zone by making strong, bold moves, which changes everything. I think the time is now to go all in for superstar.
Still, I would be as happy, if not more, with a bunch of young players playing hard.
So, both directions are ok for me. The third one, staying put, is not.