There is still a long way to go until the start of the 2026-27 Miami Heat season. But as we near the two-month mark, it’s never too early to start making predictions!
Currently, Las Vegas has set the Heat’s projection win total at 46.5 for the new season after they landed Giannis Antetokounmpo, drafted Ryan Conwell and signed Tim Hardaway Jr. Is that fair? Is that unfair? Here are three reasons why they won’t exceed that projection, and three reasons why they may not.
3 reasons why they will:
They have a top-3 player in the sport:
Skinny: The Miami Heat have Giannis Antetokounmpo, a perennial MVP candidate and 10-time All-Star. And when you have one of the league’s best players, your chances of winning nightly increase exponentially. Obviously, winning in any capacity is hard. But possessing a premier talent such as Antetokounmpo eases the burden off a lot of players’ shoulders. Plus, Antetokounmpo’s teams have exceeded the 46-win mark each of the last seven years he’s played at least 60 games. If he neighbors that threshold, I think the Heat win at least 46.
Heat have enough depth to survive an 82-game season:
Skinny: While there is a noticeable drop-off after Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, the Heat have just enough depth to get them by an 82-game regular season. The issue they have is improving that depth at the trade deadline — they emptied their treasure chest for Antetokounmpo — but a supporting cast led by Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bobby Portis and Pelle Larsson is solid and can fill the necessary gaps over the course of an 82-game season.
Heat will have one of the NBA’s best defenses:
Skinny: Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships. It’s that simple. Outside of Antetokounmpo and Adebayo — two top-flight defensive anchors (even though Giannis isn’t his former DPOY self) — Wiggins, Larsson, Mitchell and Dru Smith are all very good defenders.
Nikola Jovic is an above-average defender in space; Simone Fontecchio is no slouch, nor is Myron Gardner; Ryan Conwell showed in college and in Summer League that he’s capable of being an above-average point-of-attack hound. Hardaway and Portis? Well, that’s a different story. But Miami has more than enough to compensate for their deficiencies.
Among the 25 top-5 defenses over the last five seasons, all but five have won more than 46 games; 19 have won at least 50 games, while 13 have won at least 55. The Heat may not reach the latter bar, but the point is that having a very good defense is the golden ticket to succeed over an 82-game season, especially since Miami’s newfangled unit will catalyze plenty of easy offense.
3 reasons why they won’t:
Health, health and … HEALTH!:
Skinny: Health will dictate a lot of where the Heat end up. As we’ll talk about shortly: The East is deeper than it gets credit for. There has also been an increase of soft-tissue injuries the last few seasons.
Antetokounmpo is one example. He only played 36 games last year due to a lingering calf injury and is on the wrong side of 30. It’s not quite red, but that’s an orange flag. And if he misses any extended period of time, the foundation crumbles.
The Heat will also need healthy seasons from Adebayo, who’s played through several ailments the last two seasons, as well as Jovic, who hasn’t crossed the 50-game benchmark in four years, Hardaway (34) and Portis (31), among others.
East might cannibalize itself:
Skinny: Call me crazy, but the Eastern Conference is … good?! Maybe not to the talent of the top of the West, but there is still an abundance of talented teams.
- New York Knicks: Reigning champions who kept their core together
- Detroit Pistons: If Jalen Duren returns (restricted FA is the worst), they will, once again, be a tough out.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Defense concerns notwithstanding, with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in the mix, this is a good team that’s capable of winning 55+ games, if healthy.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: As we await James Harden’s decision, a Donovan Mitchell-Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen trio is still rock solid.
- Toronto Raptors: This team won 46 games last year and have length at every position. Oh, and there’s still a chance they replace Brandon Ingram with *checks notes* Kawhi Leonard.
- Orlando Magic: While they had a quiet summer, their starting lineup was as impactful as anyone’s. They, like the Heat, have to stay healthy.
- Indiana Pacers: They were one game away from an NBA Title 14 months ago … and Tyrese Haliburton is back, with Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam!
- Boston Celtics: They had the worst summer, but are still good enough to compete for a top-6 seed if the cards go right.
- Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta improved by adding Aaron Wiggins and Luguentz Dort, and I think Kingston Fleings is going to hit the ground running right away.
- Charlotte Hornets: I love what Charlotte is building in the short- and long-term.
- Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards: Two teams who are still expected to be bad … but they have Caleb Wilson and AJ Dybantsa, respectively. Those are franchise-altering talents.
Halfcourt offense remains murky:
Skinny: While the Heat’s defense will generate plenty of offense, I do have questions about the Heat’s spacing — or lack thereof — in a halfcourt setting.
There will be matchups to exploit in the frontcourt, and I think an Antetokounmpo-Adebayo two-man game is quite lethal because of how well both exploit advantages in certain scenarios. But how is Miami, with little volume shooting, able to maximize the spacing around Antetokounmpo, who collapses defenses as well as anyone (you need to accomplish both)?
How are they able to generate halfcourt offense with a poor guard room, save for Mitchell, when the ball isn’t in Antetokounmpo’s hands? There is more than one way to create space, but Miami doesn’t have any vertical spacing (minus Giannis) nor do they have legitimate volume shooting outside of Hardaway and Conwell, who I am high on, but still unproven at the NBA level.
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We shouldn’t expect more then 50 wins from that team. In case of bad luck the number of wins could also start with 3. There are still holes in the team, with no real possibilities right now to fill them, which creates that 50 wins ceiling.